Local casino upped the 6/5 5c JOB Progressive to start at $750 (15000 coins). The Variance is 287. This makes it a 101.68% Game 24/7 minimum, not counting the .4% slot club bonus which makes it a 102.08% game. How much would you play this? EV is $4.16 / hour. based on 800 hands an hour. Of course this goes up as the Progressive increases. There is a bank of 4 machines. Would you continue to play after the Progressive hit, or would you wait until it got up to say $800?
Fat Progressive
I’m getting s different edge than your fig, neo. If the RF is at 3000/coin, a 6/5 5c JOB game has a 100.44% payback. With the 0.4% cashback, it’s 100.84%.
Also, I calc the Var of a 1-unit bet with this payout schedule to be 226, a little smaller than your fig. For a bet of 5 nickels, the Var is 14.
Using my figs, the hourly EV including .4% cashback would be $1.67. The Kelly bankroll for the game is $6000, so you’ll have to look for a smaller game if your bankroll drops below $6K!
“NO”, the number of hands you need to play to be about 5/6 sure of being ahead at all, is 3,200,000. That’s a daunting 4000 hours of play.
All of my figs ignore the fact that the RF jackpot is growing, but I don’t think it will affect the figs much.
I found the distribution of results after a 10-hour day of play to be interesting:
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You would virtually never win between $1 and $400.or between $800 and $1000, BUT you WOULD win between $400 and $800 16% of the time!
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Most of the time (79%) you’d lose between $1 and $200.
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3% of the time you’d lose between $200 and $400, but almost never more than $400.
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2% of the time you’d win over $1000, which must be the times you hit 2 RF’s during the 10 hours.
The reason you almost never win between $1 and $400 is that if you don’t hit an RF, you’re playing a game that’s worse than 94%. No amount of small-hand luck can over come that. If you DO hit an RF, you get a $750 boost to bankroll, hence the 16% of the time that you end up between +$400 and +$800.
The reason you almost never lose more than $400 is that you would only be betting $2000 total in the 10 hours. It’s tough to lose over 25% of your total coin-in over that many hands.
–Dunbar
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—In vpF…@…com, <neocacher@…> wrote:
Local casino upped the 6/5 5c JOB Progressive to start at $750 (15000 coins). The Variance is 287. This makes it a 101.68% Game 24/7 minimum, not counting the .4% slot club bonus which makes it a 102.08% game. How much would you play this? EV is $4.16 / hour. based on 800 hands an hour. Of course this goes up as the Progressive increases. There is a bank of 4 machines. Would you continue to play after the Progressive hit, or would you wait until it got up to say $800?
i think your figures are wrong. I double checked the math on Wizard of Odds. It is 101.68%
I haven’t checked the numbers — but at $4 per hour, I’m surprised you find this attractive. That’s about half of what you make working at McDonald’s.
Is the love of the smell of a smoky casino that much better to you than the smell french fries and ketchup?
Bob
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Plus playing video poker is high stress, you make a mistake and it comes right out of your pocket, if you make a mistake at a fast food restaurant you still have 5 seconds to pick it up off the floor.