There is a new progressive at the Fiesta Henderson. It is a Triple PAY
Deuces (1-2-2-3-4-8-10-12-750) that has an EV of 99.92% at reset. The
sign on the machines say 100+% return and then in smaller letters they
say something to the effect of it being over 100% by taking the base
game and adding the pct. contribution to the progressive.
I would say in this case it's harder to argue about the 100%+ signs
since they do explain right on the machine how they came up with that
figure.
Btw, the progressive was going up so slow I wouldn't be surprised if
they were adding only .1% to the meter. (I didn't have time to wait and
calculate it.) It would be a mistake if that were true. They could
easily add .25-.5% and make much more money with the additional play for
the progressive getting higher faster. I would be surprised to see this
get a lot of play if the average RF hit is going to be around $1040. The
average player would probably be deviating extensively from proper
strategy for this pay schedule.
···
________________________________________________________________________
Message: 10
Date: Fri, 22 Nov 2002 17:44:25 -0600
From: Bill Velek <billvelek@alliancecable.net>
Subject: Re: EV of a progressive (was Re: Stratosphere JOB)Harry Porter wrote:
> Bill Velek wrote:
>
>
>>I think the casino should be required to take the sign down until
the
>>progressive gets high enough that it truly does represent a 100%+
>
> machine.
>
> If the casino can accurately say that with perfect play the
> expectation (AT ALL TIMES) is that they will pay out 100%+ of
coin-in,
> what's wrong with the sign.
Nothing, ... if the EV "(AT ALL TIMES)" is 100%+. But my
understanding
of the facts which have been discussed is that after the progressive
has
been hit, and for a time until the progressive has sufficiently
accumulated, that the EV is below 100%. Maybe this just gets back to
the subtle difference between EV and ER, which I thought I finally
understood but probably carelessly interchange. As I understand it,
EV
(expected value) is the monetary value, in betting units, of a
particular hand; a low-pair draw in JOB 9/6 has an EV of .8237, which
I
take to mean that I've drawn a hand which is worth (all potentialities
considered) .8237 x my betting unit ($1.25 for 5 quarters) = $1.03.
ER, on the other hand, is the expected percentage return value, long
term, for that game (as opposed to any particular hand). So, while
we've been speaking in terms of EV, I think we are all talking about
ER
instead, but that is fine, since we know what the context is.
Now, if I'm not mistaken, the ER is still a calculated value which
takes
the sum of the various hand-values times the combined probability of
those hands being either initially dealt or being completed on a
redraw
-- using perfect strategy. If that is the case, then the ER, as shown
by WinPoker for example, is a fixed value for a game with a fixed
pay-table, which is what we face when we walk up to a non-progressive
machine; on the other hand, when we walk up to a progessive machine
today, and go to the same machine tomorrow, and they have widely
disparate JackPots, I can't agree that we would, in both instances, be
offered the same ER at those particular points. I thought that was
precisely why professional players look for progressives that have
accumulated over a certain value.Cheers.
Bill Velek