The word "average" is a very general term that is not specific in mathematics. There are three common kinds of average: mean, median and mode. Then there's other methods such as root-mean-square. When most people say "average" are referring to the mean.
In the case of video poker EV, it's a weighted mean. Each possible outcome's payoff is multiplied by its probability, and the total of all of those is the EV. There's no need to divide by anything since the probabilities, by definition, total exactly one.
You're correct that creating a strategy is a matter of sorting all possible holds by descending EV, but it's far from simple. In some cases, two possible holds with similar EV occur in the same dealt hand, and the best hold (highest EV) may be opposite of when each of these draws occurs by itself.
Then, if you want to get really serious, the presence of penalty cards should be considered, but as has been shown repeatedly, that's not worth the trouble for any but the most dedicated players.
Dan
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John <john_oc_ca@yahoo.com> wrote:
As I understand it, EV for a given set of dealt and held cards is the *average* of all possible outcomes; that is, the total coins paid (in units) divided by the total number of possible hands. Developing a strategy is simply a matter of sorting all possible holds by descending EV.
Aren't averages considered "brute force" values, statistically speaking? Shouldn't something like the "mean" and standard deviation (variance?) be used instead? That way, someone could calculate a proper strategy for them based on an acceptable variance level or value.
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Dan Paymar
Author of best selling book, "Video Poker - Optimum Play"
Editor/Publisher of VP newsletter "Video Poker Times"
Developer of VP analysis/trainer software "Optimum Video Poker"
Visit my web site at www.OptimumPlay.com
"Chance favors the prepared mind." -- Louis Pasteur
