Howdy
I play 9/6 JoB. I play 800 hands per hour. If I play two hours per session
and play 100 sessions a year what would my win loss record be according to the
mathematical probability of this game? One win or loss per session.
Grumpy
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Howdy
I play 9/6 JoB. I play 800 hands per hour. If I play two hours
per session
and play 100 sessions a year what would my win loss record be
according to the
mathematical probability of this game? One win or loss per session.
Grumpy
No cashback and no player errors, right? Then you should expect to
lose 67.3% of your sessions and win 32.7% of your sessions. I got
those figs from "playing" 300,000 sessions on Dunbar's Risk Analyzer
for Video Poker.
Once you know the chance of winning a single session, you can get
the chance of winning a particular number of sessions out of your
yearly 100 by using the binomial probability distribution. In
Excel, you would use:
=BINOMDIST(33,100,32.7%,False) to get the chance of exactly 33
wins. The answer is 8.4%, which is also the most likely result from
100 sessions.
Here is the chance of having various numbers of winning sessions,
from 20 up through 50:
20 wins 0.18%
21 wins 0.34%
22 wins 0.59%
23 wins 0.97%
24 wins 1.51%
25 wins 2.24%
26 wins 3.13%
27 wins 4.17%
28 wins 5.29%
29 wins 6.38%
30 wins 7.34%
31 wins 8.05%
32 wins 8.43%
33 wins 8.44%
34 wins 8.08%
35 wins 7.41%
36 wins 6.50%
37 wins 5.46%
38 wins 4.40%
39 wins 3.40%
40 wins 2.52%
41 wins 1.79%
42 wins 1.22%
43 wins 0.80%
44 wins 0.50%
45 wins 0.30%
46 wins 0.18%
47 wins 0.10%
48 wins 0.05%
49 wins 0.03%
50 wins 0.01%
--Dunbar
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