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Error on NSUD card

I'm quite sure this is not correct. The value of the Deuce alone, on
average, is less than 1.0000 in the hands which also contain a straight4. I
worked it out meticulously, years ago.

It was a long time ago, but based upon a 5-coin bet, I think the Deuce
alone was worth 4.994 coins. But as you say, it has almost no impact on long
term expectation.

Brian

···

=======================================

In a message dated 4/10/2010 7:53:19 A.M. Pacific Daylight Time,
Dan@OptimumPlay.com writes:

It's a very close call, but a one-deuce an open ended straight 4 has
an EV of 1.0000, and the deuce alone has an average EV of about
1.0057. The decision has very little effect on the long-term expected
return because it occurs only about once in 233 plays.
Dan

Not a mistake. On average, an open ended straight4 with a Deuce is very
slightly better than the Deuce alone.

Brian

========================================

In a message dated 4/9/2010 6:49:10 P.M. Pacific Daylight Time,
<mailto:Dan%40OptimumPlay.com>Dan@OptimumPlay.com writes:

A customer just pointed out an error on my Not So Ugly Deuces cue
card. The next-to-last line is "Straight 4" just above "Deuce alone."
Obviously, you should never draw to a straight when you a deuce, so
if you have one of those cards please cross out that line (a black
Sharpie pen will mark on the laminate).

I can't believe that I made such a stupid error, and I apologize to
everyone who bought one of those cards.

The surprising thing is that no one pointed out this error for five years.

--
Dan Paymar
Author of best selling book, "Video Poker - Optimum Play"
Developer of VP analysis/trainer software "Optimum Video Poker"
Visit my web site at www.OptimumPlay.com

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

Just the fact that most of those hands are straight draws suggests
that the average is probably a straight draw. I can't think of any
reason that the deuce, when it's better, would be better by more, on
average, than the straight draw is better when it's better.

···

I'm quite sure this is not correct. The value of the Deuce alone, on
average, is less than 1.0000 in the hands which also contain a straight4. I
worked it out meticulously, years ago.

It was a long time ago, but based upon a 5-coin bet, I think the Deuce
alone was worth 4.994 coins. But as you say, it has almost no impact on long
term expectation.

Brian

=======================================

In a message dated 4/10/2010 7:53:19 A.M. Pacific Daylight Time,
Dan@OptimumPlay.com writes:

It's a very close call, but a one-deuce an open ended straight 4 has
an EV of 1.0000, and the deuce alone has an average EV of about
1.0057. The decision has very little effect on the long-term expected
return because it occurs only about once in 233 plays.
Dan

Not a mistake. On average, an open ended straight4 with a Deuce is very
slightly better than the Deuce alone.

Brian

========================================

In a message dated 4/9/2010 6:49:10 P.M. Pacific Daylight Time,
<mailto:Dan%40OptimumPlay.com>Dan@OptimumPlay.com writes:

A customer just pointed out an error on my Not So Ugly Deuces cue
card. The next-to-last line is "Straight 4" just above "Deuce alone."
Obviously, you should never draw to a straight when you a deuce, so
if you have one of those cards please cross out that line (a black
Sharpie pen will mark on the laminate).

I can't believe that I made such a stupid error, and I apologize to
everyone who bought one of those cards.

The surprising thing is that no one pointed out this error for five years.