As Bob notes, there are two different kinds of bankroll
considerations. "Longterm" bankroll is how much money you would
need to play the game forever. For the $25 JOB with 3x points, you
would need a bankroll of $1,785,800 to keep your chance of going
broke to 1%. (That assumes no tips and no errors.) If you have a
smaller bankroll than that, and you make a habit of playing games
like $25 JOB with 0.75% cb, then your ROR is much higher than 1%.
A second bankroll issue is whether you have enough money to even sit
down and play for awhile. This is "session" or "trip" bankroll.
You don't need the whole $1,785,800 to play for 4 hours. For
example, Bob said he had around $20K with him. If he could get in
500 hands/hr, then a 20K bankroll would have a 99% chance of lasting
for 2 hours and an 89% chance of lasting 4 hours. (Had Bob hoped to
play for 10 hours, though, he would have had a 41% chance of going
home early!)
Here is another stat from 4 hours of $25 JOB (with a $20K session
bankroll):
1. The chance of losing more than $8000 is 36%
2. The chance of winning more than $8000 is 17%
It's sobering to note that even in this advantageous game, you have
twice as much chance of losing $8000+ as winning $8000+. Of
course, while you can't lose more than the $20K you start with, you
could get lucky and win $100K.
--Dunbar
For those with different longterm risk tolerance, here's the
relationship of risk-of-ruin to longterm bankroll for the $25 JOB
game with 3x 0.25% cashback:
% RoR, Bankroll
25%, 537,600
20%, 624,100
15%, 735,700
10%, 892,900
5%, 1,161,700
2%, 1,517,000
1%, 1,785,800
0.5%, 2,054,600
0.1%, 2,678,700
0.01%, 3,571,550
For a $5 game you would divide those longterm bankroll figs by 5.
Five wrote: that said i still wouldn't play $1 JoB with 0.75% cb
on a
$17500 bankroll.
This is a different subject than was originally posted. In at
least
one post, Dunbar was referring to "cash in your pocket" when you
visited
the casino. Five is referring to total bankroll --- which
hopefully is a
lot more than "cash in your pocket."
In my particular case, I only had $20K or so on me when I
found
this particular $25 play. (I had access to a large line-of-credit
next
door should I decided to go that route. I likely wouldn't go that
route
as taking a marker might adversely affect my Harrah's daily
average, and
the Horizon play was really small change compared to the Harrah's
offers.) I was planning on playing a few hours only. If I lost
that, it
would not have been a big deal --- although Shirley still gets a
bit
cranky at $20K losses. My total bankroll is well over 100 times
that
large. My bankroll was larger a month ago even though I'm well
ahead at
video poker during that period. The stock market, where most of my
bankroll lives in its spare time, has been down of late.
The long term bankroll calculations (on Dunbar's Risk
Analyzer
and on Video Poker for Winners --- which were developed
independently
but come up with very similar numbers --- which is a statement to
the
reliability of both products) presume you are going to be playing
this
particular game forever and ever amen. The $17,500 figure for a $1
game
referred to this type of calculation. That was not the case here.
I was
going to play maybe four hours. The short term calculations (as
defined
on both products) let you enter a number of hands --- in my
particular
case around 2,000 or 2,500 --- and see what the chances of going
broke
with however much you have in your pocket.
How close you need to pay attention to these figures depends
on
how serious losing your cash on hand is to you. In my case, it
didn't
matter very much.
Bob Dancer
For a 3-day free trial of Video Poker for Winners, the best video
poker
computer trainer ever invented, go
to //www.videopokerforwinners.com
···
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Bob Dancer" <bdancer@...> wrote: