I believe personal experiences are a very good way to illuminate the
volatility of VP. I'll provide some of my results for just such a
purpose. My last year has been almost textbook in showing the
different results one can get. Here's a synopsis:
Headed out to LV on 9/25/04 for the winter.
10/7/04 - 12/02/04 (8 weeks) around 250K hands, 11 RFs
12/3/04 - 1/26/05 (7.5 weeks) around 250K hands, 2 RFs
1/27/05 - 3/24/05 (8 weeks) around 250K hands, 15 RFs
Overall this was extremely lucky and made up for several years of
being a couple RFs short of par. The number of hands I played in each
period could be close to what others would play over several years.
If you were a moderate player (100K hands/yr) and found yourself in
the middle group you would probably be suspicous of proponents of
advantage play. If you were in either the first or third group you
might get overconfident and start gambling more and at higher denoms.
A potential disaster without adequate bankroll.
Over the past 4 months I've played around 170K hands (no reasonable
triple play machines) and had RFs on 5/23, 6/25, 7/19 and 8/16. This
period has been probably the most unusual, but it is what a lot of
people EXPECT when they hear statements that RFs are hit on average
every 40K hands. This is the FIRST time I've ever hit RFs in this
consistent manner.
The bottom line is that results will vary over time and you should
EXPECT the unexpected or, essentially, the "roller coaster ride" that
Jean Scott mentioned.
Dick
Excellent....
I posted my recent losses to help provide people with an
understanding of
what can happen. It was not done to imply that the math is wrong,
that there
is a conspiracy, etc. I see that some people are using my recent
losses to
justify their own suspicions. That was/is certainly not my intent.
I think your guidelines are "right on". And I am totally amazed
that people
who are convinced that the machines are "gaffed" do continue to
play.
It is true that the positive edges are getting smaller at many
locations.
And I think Steve (and Art) have some excellent observations. There
are
still some excellent opportunities out there. It just takes some
work. And
···
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "ednar" <ednar@k...> wrote:
they seem to keep changing..... But otherwise it would get boring.
----- Original Message -----
From: "vpFREE" vpFREE@C...
SNIP
>
> Methinks you do misrepresent the theory a bit. My version is:
>
> 1. Play within the limits of your bankroll (mathematical and
> psychological) on machines that you believe to be fair and
> random.
>
> 2. Be selective in what and where you play. Only play situations
> where you have a positive edge, the more the better.
>
> 3. Play at an optimum speed, based on your best combination
> of accuracy, enjoyment and swiftness.
>
> 4. Play as many or as few hours as you like, subject to #2.
>
> I've done the above for 10 plus years with excellent results,
> and I know many other LV locals who I have reason to believe
> have done similarly.
> I believe that the machines that I regularly play here in LV
> are fair and random. I wouldn't play them if I felt otherwise.
>
> vpFREE Administrator
>
