what are odds in drawing 4 of a kind from a pair??
playin 100play i twice drew 4 4oak in a single draw, had drawn 3 4oak
6 times all from keeping a single pair.
BUT i got skunked once keepin 3 queens, no 4oak on a 100play.
Reno VP players do not seem very good, Ac Kc Qc flop & keepin the
ace?? throw away small pair to keep a face. drawin on inside
straights, playin short coin are some of what i saw.
Thanks in advance
M J Perry
I think it's a good idea for every VP'er to try a 100-play machine for several hours. It does a good job of changing (some would say "correcting") a person's perspective on the nature of randomness.
You'll be amazed at the number of times you are dealt 4/5 of a Royal and get zilcho nada NO Royals out of the other 99 hands. On the other hand, I've been dealt 2/5 of a Royal on more than one occasion and gotten three or more Royals out of it. Same thing for other hands that should "obviously" be big winners on a 100-hand machine. My favorite--I'm being sarcastic--is starting out with 4/5 of a flush and ending up with only two or three flushes on the final deal (this machine must be rigged, dammit!!). Or being dealt two pair and ending up with ONE full house (rigged, I tell you!!)
carlos
mklpryy24 <mklpryy24@yahoo.com> wrote:
what are odds in drawing 4 of a kind from a pair??
playin 100play i twice drew 4 4oak in a single draw, had drawn 3 4oak
6 times all from keeping a single pair.
BUT i got skunked once keepin 3 queens, no 4oak on a 100play.
Reno VP players do not seem very good, Ac Kc Qc flop & keepin the
ace?? throw away small pair to keep a face. drawin on inside
straights, playin short coin are some of what i saw.
Thanks in advance
M J Perry
vpFREE Links: http://members.cox.net/vpfree/Links.htm
Yahoo! Groups Links
[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
I calculate 45/(47!/(44!*3!)) = 0.2775% or about 1/360
AJ
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "mklpryy24" <mklpryy24@y...> wrote:
what are odds in drawing 4 of a kind from a pair??
what are odds in drawing 4 of a kind from a pair??
playin 100play i twice drew 4 4oak in a single draw, had drawn 3
4oak
6 times all from keeping a single pair.
BUT i got skunked once keepin 3 queens, no 4oak on a 100play.
I looked up in WinPoker, assuming traditional 5 card draw vp game:
If you draw 0 or 1 card, it's not possible to catch a quad.
If you draw 2 cards, then it's 1 in 1,081
If you draw 3 cards, then it's 45 in 16,215
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "mklpryy24" <mklpryy24@y...> wrote:
what are odds in drawing 4 of a kind from a pair??
playin 100play i twice drew 4 4oak in a single draw, had drawn 3
4oak
6 times all from keeping a single pair.
BUT i got skunked once keepin 3 queens, no 4oak on a 100play.
The odds of converting a pair are 1 in 360, versus 1 in 24 for trips.
Of the two events you described, drawing 4 4OAKs from a single pair
on a hundred play hand is by far the greater feat. Odds against
drawing 4 or more are 5317 to 1, while the odds of being skunked on
trips is only 76 to 1.
Getting 3 4OAKs is also highly unlikely. Odds against this event are
353 to 1. That you did this 6 times and the other twice is
remarkable. I hope you realize that because of your great success in
this regard, somewhere else in VP land approximately 37 people had to
suffer 4OAK droughts to even out the overall odds. Are you happy
now? 
Overall, this goes to reinforce what we've talked about elsewhere
long odds events do happen on occasion.
Here's how to calculate the odds.
First, when figuring odds on the draw with a 52-card deck, your
numerator is the same for any 2-card draw (1081) and any 3-card draw
(16215). All you have to do is count the number of possible results
that lie in the remaining deck, and divide by these numbers.
So, if you have 3 kings and are drawing 2 cards, how many possible 2-
card combinations will result in a 4OAK? Well, one of the cards has
to the last king, and the other card can be any of the other 46
cards, you don't care. So the number of possibles is 46, divided by
1081 = 4.2553% odds or about 1 in 24.
If you have 2 kings and are drawing 3 cards, how many possible 3-card
combinations will result in a 4OAK? Well, 2 of the cards have to be
the last 2 kings, and the other card can be any of the other 45
cards, you don't care. So the number of possibles is 45, divided by
16215 = 0.2775% odds or about 1 in 360.
Now, if you have 100 draws at 1 in 24 odds, you would expect to get 4
4OAKs. To figure the odds that you will be skunked, take the odds of
NOT converting a 3OAK, which is (100% - 4.2553%) or 0.957447, and
raise it to the 100th power (multiply it by itself 100 times). That
gives you a probably of not getting any of 0.012926, or about one
chance in 77.
Alternatively, if you hold a pair and want to know the odds of
converting 4 or more of them into 4OAKs, you need to use a slide rule
and half a notebook worth of scratch paper, or, alternatively, you
can use Excel's BINOMDIST function. Because of the way the function
is set up, you have to figure the odds of getting 3 or less. Then 1-
this number gives you the probability of getting 4 or more.
Odds of 3 or less = BINOMDIST(3,100,0.002775,TRUE) = .99981197
1-.99981197=.00018803 prob
1/.00018803 = odds of 1 in 5318 or 5317-to-1 against
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "mklpryy24" <mklpryy24@y...> wrote:
what are odds in drawing 4 of a kind from a pair??
playin 100play i twice drew 4 4oak in a single draw, had drawn 3
4oak
6 times all from keeping a single pair.
BUT i got skunked once keepin 3 queens, no 4oak on a 100play.M J Perry
Thanks for the answers, you really notice how 2 for 2 pair vs 1 for 2
pair effects the volitlity of the game, LUV 100play!!
M J Perry
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "mklpryy24" <mklpryy24@y...> wrote: