Another related question is: What are the odds of hitting that
reversible/sequential royal?
<<
I may have missed this, but what was the payoff table?
Jim
Downtown RR prog...
Jim Wolf wrote:
>>
Another related question is: What are the odds of hitting that
reversible/sequential royal?
<<I may have missed this, but what was the payoff table?
Jim, the machine was reported as having 8/5 BP and a few with 9/7 DB,
with a meter at $49K+.
And I'm sorry to say that I overlooked the sequential royal analysis
capability of Frugal Video Poker. This is a case where it shows it
has exceptional value since not only will it analyze the game but also
provide the user with the optimal strategy.
Performing that analysis for 8/5 BP (setting the sequential/reverse
sequential royals at $50K), approx. 1.5 out of every 66.4 royals will
hit the big one, or about 1 out of every 44 royals. The actual cycle
is reported as 1,714,680. The ER is 101.29%.
This 1.7 million hand cycle is reasonably close to the 1.6 million
hand cycle Dennis reported. Naturally, I'm curious to know how you
arrived at your answer, Dennis. Let's give credit where due :).
- Harry (always eager to improve on my ignorance!)
Harry - one thing to consider is Long Term ER - vs. Short Term ER. The best determinant of this is the Volatility Index i.e variance. For Example the standard 9/6 Jacks or better game returns 99.5 with a variance of 19. But add onto that a 200,000 coin bonus for a reversible royal ( like the one currently in effect at the Golden Nugget downtown ) and you boost the EV to 101.67 but with variance of 951. So , theres a price to pay while your going for the Sequential Royal ( and competing with the other 10 players hooked up and going for it at the GN on an extremely slow meter I may add !).
You are going to have to throw away - good solid hands and increase your loss rate per hour in hopes of "catching the big one" at the better cycle of 1/42 royals=1 SR. For example in standard Jacks a TS-4H-5H-6H-AS is a no brainer, you hold the 3SF. With the giant sequential jackpot you must go with the longshot hold TS, AS. There are many unorthodox draws like this - but you must go for them to claim the 101.67 EV. Now a more interesting question is, what is the EV, if the only strategy modification you wish to make is on 3 or 4 card RF draws - and what is that new variance figure ? At what point do the tiger teams come in and lock up those machines ?
regards...Tom
···
----- Original Message -----
From: Harry Porter
To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
Sent: Thursday, April 24, 2003 10:25 PM
Subject: [vpFREE] Re: Downtown RR prog... (and a mea culpa 
Jim Wolf wrote:
> >>
> Another related question is: What are the odds of hitting that
> reversible/sequential royal?
> <<
>
> I may have missed this, but what was the payoff table?
Jim, the machine was reported as having 8/5 BP and a few with 9/7 DB,
with a meter at $49K+.
And I'm sorry to say that I overlooked the sequential royal analysis
capability of Frugal Video Poker. This is a case where it shows it
has exceptional value since not only will it analyze the game but also
provide the user with the optimal strategy.
Performing that analysis for 8/5 BP (setting the sequential/reverse
sequential royals at $50K), approx. 1.5 out of every 66.4 royals will
hit the big one, or about 1 out of every 44 royals. The actual cycle
is reported as 1,714,680. The ER is 101.29%.
This 1.7 million hand cycle is reasonably close to the 1.6 million
hand cycle Dennis reported. Naturally, I'm curious to know how you
arrived at your answer, Dennis. Let's give credit where due :).
- Harry (always eager to improve on my ignorance!)
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tomflush wrote:
Harry - one thing to consider is Long Term ER - vs. Short Term ER.
The best determinant of this is the Volatility Index i.e variance. For
Example the standard 9/6 Jacks or better game returns 99.5 with a
variance of 19. But add onto that a 200,000 coin bonus for a
reversible royal and you boost the EV to 101.67 but with variance of
951. So, theres a price to pay while your going for the Sequential Royal.
You are going to have to throw away - good solid hands and increase
your loss rate per hour in hopes of "catching the big one" at the
better cycle of 1/42 royals=1 SR. For example in standard Jacks a
TS-4H-5H-6H-AS is a no brainer, you hold the 3SF. With the giant
sequential jackpot you must go with the longshot hold TS, AS. There
are many unorthodox draws like this - but you must go for them to
claim the 101.67 EV.
···
-------
Tom, you make two excellent points here that anyone pursuing a
progressive should be aware of.
However, in your first comment I might take modest exception. You
note in the case of a 9/6 JB progressive that there's a price to be
paid in chasing it, presumably in terms of the additional variance.
One could avoid any real additional cost and choose to simply play per
standard 9/6 JB strategy. You're not going to be playing with an EV
that's optimal, but certainly at one that's greater than playing 9/6
without the progressive.
Of course, as you elaborate in your second comment, if you choose to
max the EV of your play then you're going to modify your play strategy
in such a way that the EV derived from more frequent hands (those
occuring on average at least once an hour, quads and below) will be
reduced. The occurrance of these hands will be reduced due to the
variances in strategy to pursue the sequential royal and, therefore,
your expected loss per hour until you hit the jackpot will increase.
(By the way, while I think variance is an important concept, from a
practical perspective I find it primarily of use in comparing two
plays with comparable returns. Because it's a single reference point
for a game, it has considerable limits in having a practical use.
What I prefer to concentrate on is my expected loss over the course of
a typical hour, session, and day. I estimate this based upon looking
at the return that's derived from only those hands that have a
frequency of at least twice in the period of time I'm looking at. If
the related return from those hands is 80%, then I anticipate
frequently suffering a 20% loss in that period of time. I gain a
strong sense of what generally to expect in my play and how to stake
my session, and type type of "worst-case" play I might reasonably
experience.)
However, the situation of reduced short term return due to altered
strategy is not unlike what most players face when they choose to play
10/7 DB vs. 9/6 JB. While the specifics do differ, in choosing DB, a
player accepts the fact that the higher concentration of payout in
less frequent hands will increase the short-term expected loss per hour.
The point is that these are risks the intelligent player, possessing
the bankroll to withstand the additional risk, will accept. But the
point I will stand firmly along side you on is that it's important
that a player recognize these additional risks and not blindly step
into pursuit of a progressive. This is something to be stressed even
more strongly when pursuing an attractive progressive that features an
inferior paytable, e.g. an UD progressive.
=============
tomflush further wrote:
Now a more interesting question is, what is the EV, if the only
strategy modification you wish to make is on 3 or 4 card RF draws -
and what is that new variance figure ? At what point do the tiger
teams come in and lock up those machines ?
------
This is a case that I believe FVP fully handles. I haven't explored
these features thoroughly and, to the extent that I have, I've had a
little difficult discerning the appropriate flow of steps, however FVP
allows you to analyze many modifications to a strategy by shifting the
priority of holds.
As far as the concern that a team will come in and lock a progressive,
killing your chance to hit it, perhaps after dropping a grand on it --
well, to a lesser extent a player faces the prospect of losing a
chance at a progressive in any point in the game. For that matter, a
player suffers the risk in any play that they'll fall short of the EV
simply because they suffer a prolonged royal drought or, perhaps, a
sustained shortfall of DB quad Aces. The key here again is simply
that they player needs to understand the risk. In vp play, there are
NO guarantees :).
- Harry