double joker progressive with $2k Royal reset.
1-2-3-4-5-8-25-50-100-1600
im down $10k aka 5 royals. 
I’m using the strategy maker from wizard of odds site: https://wizardofodds.com/games/video-poker/strategy/calculator/
I set the Royal at 1700 coins ($2100).
How bad am I running?
must be at least 3 stand deviations?
I just set up the same details you’re working with and ran four quick simulations of a million hands each. In EACH sim, the bankroll took a dive of 40,000 or more coins. At quarters, that was at least a $10K downswing each time. Four out of four. Of course, the return is only 100.14%, so it’s a 100% game, that is true, but that’s all it is. I didn’t add any cashback.
—In vpF…@…com, <stut70@…> wrote :
double joker progressive with $2k Royal reset.
1-2-3-4-5-8-25-50-100-1600
im down $10k aka 5 royals.
I’m using the strategy maker from wizard of odds site: https://wizardofodds.com/games/video-poker/strategy/calculator/
I set the Royal at 1700 coins ($2100).
How bad am I running?
must be at least 3 stand deviations?
Assuming you’re playing correctly, it depends how many hands you’ve played. At 600 hands/hour…
after 100 hours, 60,000 hands, not one in 2000 trials was ever more than $10K behind, and none finished more than $6K behind.
after 200 hours, 120,000 hands, not one in 2000 trials was ever $10K behind, but 2 out of the 2000 trials finished more than $8K behind.
after 400 hours, 240,000 hands, 47 out of 2000 trials were behind at least $10K at some point. 2.35%.
Same, but with 0.2% error rate ($1.50/hour) jumped the number to 74. 3.7%.
after 800 hours, 480,000 hands, 234 out of 2000 trials were behind at least $10K at some point. 12%.
All calcs done with Dunbar’s Risk Analyzer for Video Poker 2.0.
–Dunbar
—In vpF…@…com, <stut70@…> wrote :
double joker progressive with $2k Royal reset.
1-2-3-4-5-8-25-50-100-1600
im down $10k aka 5 royals.
I’m using the strategy maker from wizard of odds site: https://wizardofodds.com/games/video-poker/strategy/calculator/
I set the Royal at 1700 coins ($2100).
How bad am I running?
must be at least 3 stand deviations?
"Assuming you’re playing correctly, it depends how many hands you’ve played. At 600 hands/hour…
after 100 hours, 60,000 hands, not one in 2000 trials was ever more than $10K behind, and none finished more than $6K behind."
Played about 125hrs @ around 650 hands/hr.
I deviated from the wizardofodds strategy in 1 way:
I held any suited one gap.
ie: 57 suited
the strategy sheet says only hold 1 gap if it’s 8T suited or higher.
ie: 8t, 9j
I found that odd to only hold high 1 gappers.
How much is it costing me to hold all suited 1 gappers?
BBT wrote: “I just set up the same details you’re working with and ran four quick simulations of a million hands each. In EACH sim, the bankroll took a dive of 40,000 or more coins. At quarters, that was at least a $10K downswing each time. Four out of four. Of course, the return is only 100.14%, so it’s a 100% game, that is true, but that’s all it is. I didn’t add any cashback.”
I’m suspicious that you got the same results each time, it’s possible of course, but it’s also possible that the software you were using reset the pseudo random number generator and seeded it the same way every time, which would give you the same result. There’s a lot of problems with PRNG’s.
NOTI, I didn’t get the same end results. It was just that somewhere during each million hands there was a 40,000 coin downswing. The end results were quite different.
—In vpF…@…com, <nightoftheiguana2000@…> wrote :
I’m suspicious that you got the same results each time, it’s possible of course, but it’s also possible that the software you were using reset the pseudo random number generator and seeded it the same way every time, which would give you the same result. There’s a lot of problems with PRNG’s.
The strategy change (2 SF gap 1) you suggest if fairly insignificant (I’d guess < 0.02%)
So you’re talking about a sustained 10% loss over approx 80k hands. Without doing the footwork, sounds like a rarer than 1% outcome. DJ is moderately volatile, x-RF hits – not nearly the beast that DDB is.
VP for Winners (assuming it handles DJ) has a nice feature that will give you a histogram of win/loss outcomes for a specified number of hands. (Unfortunately, my installed download is fried and I haven’t taken time out to secure a fix.)
—In vpF…@…com, <stut70@…> wrote :
"Assuming you’re playing correctly, it depends how many hands you’ve played. At 600 hands/hour…
after 100 hours, 60,000 hands, not one in 2000 trials was ever more than $10K behind, and none finished more than $6K behind."
Played about 125hrs @ around 650 hands/hr.
I deviated from the wizardofodds strategy in 1 way:
I held any suited one gap.
ie: 57 suited
the strategy sheet says only hold 1 gap if it’s 8T suited or higher.
ie: 8t, 9j
I found that odd to only hold high 1 gappers.
How much is it costing me to hold all suited 1 gappers?
I’m skeptical, too, Bob. I just ran 1000 trials of a million hands, and just 28% of them went $10,000 negative during the million hands.
It could be something other than your RNG resetting at the start. It could be that the cycle time is insufficient for the quantity of random numbers you need.
Or, assuming my number is roughly correct, your 4-in-a-row could just be a random 0.6% event!
Wait. I just realized that you’re measuring something different. Are you saying that at some point during the million hands you reached a point that was $10,000 less than your highest point before that? That could explain your higher figures. I’m measuring a $10,000 loss from zero, and you’re measuring a $10,000 drop from some previous high point, right?
–Dunbar
—In vpF…@…com, <bobbartop@…> wrote :
NOTI, I didn’t get the same end results. It was just that somewhere during each million hands there was a 40,000 coin downswing. The end results were quite different.
—In vpF…@…com, <nightoftheiguana2000@…> wrote :
I’m suspicious that you got the same results each time, it’s possible of course, but it’s also possible that the software you were using reset the pseudo random number generator and seeded it the same way every time, which would give you the same result. There’s a lot of problems with PRNG’s.
Yes, that is correct.
—In vpF…@…com, <h_dunbar@…> wrote :
Wait. I just realized that you’re measuring something different. Are you saying that at some point during the million hands you reached a point that was $10,000 less than your highest point before that? That could explain your higher figures. I’m measuring a $10,000 loss from zero, and you’re measuring a $10,000 drop from some previous high point, right?
–Dunbar
1%? so yeah, my bad run is close to 3 standard deviations.
or is there a catch to these machines?
I mean, why would Caesars offer a 100% vp game that’s only $10 coin-in for 1 tc?
and they’ve had these machines on the floor for over a year.
the next closest machine here is 9/6 JoB (99.5%) at $20 coin-in for 1 TC.
since it’s been on the floor for so long, it’s must be making them $$$. else they would have pulled them long ago.
is it a honey trap?
—In vpF…@…com, <harry.porter@…> wrote :
The strategy change (2 SF gap 1) you suggest if fairly insignificant (I’d guess < 0.02%)
So you’re talking about a sustained 10% loss over approx 80k hands. Without doing the footwork, sounds like a rarer than 1% outcome. DJ is moderately volatile, x-RF hits – not nearly the beast that DDB is.
VP for Winners (assuming it handles DJ) has a nice feature that will give you a histogram of win/loss outcomes for a specified number of hands. (Unfortunately, my installed download is fried and I haven’t taken time out to secure a fix.)
—In vpF…@…com, <stut70@…> wrote :
"Assuming you’re playing correctly, it depends how many hands you’ve played. At 600 hands/hour…
after 100 hours, 60,000 hands, not one in 2000 trials was ever more than $10K behind, and none finished more than $6K behind."
Played about 125hrs @ around 650 hands/hr.
I deviated from the wizardofodds strategy in 1 way:
I held any suited one gap.
ie: 57 suited
the strategy sheet says only hold 1 gap if it’s 8T suited or higher.
ie: 8t, 9j
I found that odd to only hold high 1 gappers.
How much is it costing me to hold all suited 1 gappers?
DJ strategy is one of the most difficult to learn and play accurately. A “ploppy” who sits down for a DJ session is likely to lose significantly more, on average, than when sitting down at a JB game.
Because the game is only inventoried at the $.25 denom, and comps and offer accrual are thin, the game doesn’t attract “pro” play. Given the popularity of these machines, odds are that they’re decent earners for the casino.
—In vpF…@…com, <stut70@…> wrote :
1%? so yeah, my bad run is close to 3 standard deviations.
or is there a catch to these machines?
I mean, why would Caesars offer a 100% vp game that’s only $10 coin-in for 1 tc?
and they’ve had these machines on the floor for over a year.
the next closest machine here is 9/6 JoB (99.5%) at $20 coin-in for 1 TC.
since it’s been on the floor for so long, it’s must be making them $$$. else they would have pulled them long ago.
is it a honey trap?
Dunbar’s sims suggest that you are WAY out there (assuming that your error rate is small). Statistical questions must be posed very precisely to have really valid numerical answers, but I think you are pretty safe in claiming a 3+ Sigma run of bad luck and not be called a liar.
I have a suggestion that may be of minuscule value to you. Why not pitch all one gap SFL. I suspect that
it is better than your current strategy of holding all one gap SFL
you save energy and time by not having to hit any hold buttons
you simplify your strategy sheet by eliminating a line
you are more likely to be able to brag about becoming a member of the exclusive group that have gotten a redraw progressive royal
Good luck. Let us know when you get back to even. I won’t hold my breath.