How much EV am I giving up by playing Double Deuces (16/13/4700)
with FPDW strategy? I'd like to give the machines at LVC a try on
an upcoming trip, but I see Winpoker doesn't have a Double Deuces
for me to practice on. Thanks.
Double Deuces w/FPDW strategy
Sure it does. On your top menu bar, click on options, click on change pay
tables, plug in the DD paytable and you are all set.
Nudge
···
----- Original Message -----
From: "bostonrains" <alextrigaux@hotmail.com
>I seeWinpoker doesn't have a Double Deuces
for me to practice on. Thanks.
This was posted on VP-MAIL also. I do not normally cross post but I was
asked to do so for this report.
Lets talk about LOSING. When we started this year we were about $4,000
ahead for a four year run. We averaged about 1 million coin in and played
about 60% .25 triple play JOB and NSUD, 20% single line (NSUD, FPDW, JOB,
10/7) etc. and about 20% nickels with some dollars thrown in periodically.
This year has been a killer! Over the last four months we have lost over
$8,000 mostly in $500 to $750 per day losses. We have verified our accuracy
and are playing close to 100% accurate. Our available cash back percents
have dropped (from 1.4% to .7%) which certainly hurts on the games that are
not over 100% without it. BUT it is our play that is dying. This maximizes
the loss in cash back (If you can't get coin in then your cash back amount
gets hurt further). We are now $4,000 behind for the four years.
Certainly the $32,000 in comps have made this a fun ride. I have received
nearly 300 free rooms during this four years which was our goal. Free
vacations.
We have had one session in triple play NSUD where we have lost $400 in less
than an hour. Even on 1 cent Bonus Poker Deluxe 99.6417% (100 line) we lost
over $200 per hour. This was for 15 hours of play. (The expected drain is
only about $7 per hour with no cash back.) We have played over $700,000
coin in so far this year which is higher than normal. I guess we thought we
could play through the negative slide.... not so. I cannot remember what a
.25 Royal looks like. We have had 3 this year in about 500,000 hands. I
guess we are about 10 to 11 below expectation.
So whereas we were once decent midrollers we are going back to where we
started, dropping denomination and playing less. Quarters and maybe some
multiline .05. When we have those opportunities of edges over 1.5% then we
may move back up in denomination but it is no fun watching your bankroll
drain even if you can afford it. I realize this is not a large loss to
many, especially dollar players. And if it was spread over a year it would
be more tolerable. But over $5,000 was this month!
PS Some people have mentioned quitting when you were ahead. For the past
month we have had about 12 sessions where we were never ahead!
This was posted on VP-Mail also.
Our recent losing streak has forced me to be introspective about our play.
I've writen down some "rules" or things to remember. Maybe some part of this
will help someone else. Or if nothing else give us something to argue
about.
1. There are no guarantees that you will win (or lose).
2. Short term variability can be good or bad. When you get done playing,
if things went well you had good short term variability (good luck) if they
went the other direction then you had bad short term variability (bad luck).
I am not sure that short term ever becomes long term.
3. Before you start playing there is no certainty of what type of "luck"
you will have. If you have had 27 straight sessions of bad short term
variability there is no guarantee that this one will be better. (or worse)
4. Playing a game with positive EV is no guarantee that you will win.
Playing a negative EV is no guarantee that you will lose. However the odds
are more in your favor on a positive EV game.
5. The long term is a series of short term events. But even if you play the
same exact positive EV game for the rest of your life there is no guarantee
that you will win. If you start out losing (or winning) there is no
certainty that things will change and "average" out. You are never "due".
True randomness means just that. There are no guarantees.
6. You should only play with money that you can afford to lose. "Afford"
is both physical and psychological.
7. If you play a higher denomination game it is logical to assume you will
most likely need a larger bankroll. Of course you could have positive short
term variability on your first hand but the likelihood of that is low. If
the game has an ER of 100.17 that is the ER for every hand including the
first one. If you had only $500 and walked up to a $100 10/7 DB machine you
would be playing at an positive edge/expectation for the one hand you play.
This would be mathematically better than playing one hand on a nickel short
pay DDB machine with and ER of 96.5%. Of course the chance is very high
that you will lose your bankroll in one hand if you play the $100 machine.
8. The more money you have to play VP the likelihood is greater that you
will be able to take advantage of the positive short term variability
periods that will likely come your way. But of course there is no guarantee
that they wil come. This is true even if you play every hand mathematically
100% correct.
9. A large bankroll will last longer on a lower denomination since you are
risking less per bet. However even with an unlimited bankroll there is no
guarantee that you will eventually be ahead if you play long enough. This
is true even if you play only positive ER machines.
10. Larger cash back percentages appear to be very important to success if
you play with the intent of playing a long time to reach the positive EV of
a machine. This infusion of cash helps sustain the bankroll. When cash
back drops it substantially increases the amount of bankroll needed from
other sources to keep playing.
11. Cash back percentage actually seems to be more of the cash generator on
lower volatility games where it may be possible to keep playing longer
without hitting the bigger hands. Games where much of the EV is in the
higher less frequent hands often do not generate as much cash back. (I'm a
little shaky on this one but it seems easier to play JOB with cash back that
gets you to 100.17% than 10/7 Double Bonus with the same ER.)
12. If you got the exact same hands on a short pay machine that you got on
a full pay machine you would have lost more. But there is no guarantee that
you would have got those same hands. But playing the better paytable
machine increases the chance that you will be more successful.
Conclusions? The same ones we hear all the time.....
Only play money you can afford to lose.
Don't play above your bankroll.
Put all the odds in your favor. (Correct strategy, large cash back, positive
EV, etc.)
Know that short term variability is a large part of it. That's why it is
still called gambling.