vpFREE2 Forums

Dollar difference between 2 plays

#1

I'm a recreational player with a question with which I need some help. I am trying to figure out the difference in “streakiness” of two plays. I’ve tried to work it out using Jazbo’s and the Wizards info and I’m just not smart enough to figure it.
So here is my question:
If I played $100,000 through both $0.25 FP 9/6 JOB (99.54) Spin Poker at max coin (45 coins per hand), and single line FP $1 Triple Bonus Plus (99.8) at max coin (5 coins per hand), what would be the maximum dollar difference from the expected return of each game 95% of the time?
Thanks

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#2

If you were comparing 2 single line games ( or 3, 5 or 10 play games), I'd recommend Dunbar's Risk Analyzer, a great program.

Since one of the games is spin poker, you have a very different variance calculation. Not only does the EV of a hand depend on the cards you hold, it also depends on where those cards are located.

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#3

$sd(hands) = ($bet per hand) x (sd per hand) x sqrt(hands)

Wizard has the sd per hand for spinpoker and tb+

Technically, you should really discount things you don't have at least the cycle for, for example the royal flush.

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#4

FWIW, VPW has a bankroll calculator that includes Spin Poker. I don't think it can answer the question you pose including the 95% confidence interval.

From experience, Spin Poker has a MUCH higher variance than Ten Play. The EV is the same, but many of your royals come 2, 3, or 5 at a time rather (discounting dealt royals) rather than the almost universal one at a time that occurs at Ten Play.

Were it me and I was concerned with variance, I'd pick the single line TBPP. Higher EV and probably lower variance. If the size of variance isn't a major concern (if this were true, why ask the question in the first place?), I'd definitely choose TBPP.

I'm assuming both games get the same slot club points and mailers. If there's a difference here, that could swing the result.

Bob

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#5

My version of VPW doesn't show the bankroll option for the spin poker, unless I am doing something wrong, but it does have it for the TBP+. My sense also is that the Spin Poker volatility is quite high but I was trying to quantify it and confirm what my limited experience had been. Thanks for everyone's input. Since South Point took out their 10-plays at the Lobby Bar I am looking for another play and the TBP+ is readily available in Vegas with decent free play and comps. I only go to Vegas about twice a year and I don't have time to learn a lot of different games.

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#6

My version of VPW also does not seem to have the "bankroll" option for Spin Poker.

..... bl

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#7

My version of VPW also does not seem to have the "bankroll" option for Spin Poker.

Whoops. Right you are. My mistake

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#8

My version of VPW also does not seem to have the "bankroll" option for Spin Poker.

..... bl

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Posted by: bornloser1537@yahoo.com
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Do you have the version of Video Poker for Winners that claims a pair of jacks is different than a pair of queens on a TJQ suited board?

#9

Do you have the version of Video Poker for Winners that claims a pair of jacks is different than a pair of queens on a TJQ suited board?

Okay. I'll bite. What game are you talking about?

If it's DDB, KK is listed above 'QJT' while JJ and QQ are listed below. Is that what you're referring to?

If so, it's not really the value of KK that's different from JJ and QQ but rather the value of 'QJT' is reduced when there are two kings in the hand. If this concept is foreign to you (as it is to many players), consider attending the advanced NSU class tomorrow if you're in Vegas. We discuss penalty cards of various stripes in that class and the concept will be much clearer to you after the class.

Assuming you're not specifically listing penalty card rules in the strategy, how would you suggest we display this?

Bob

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