vpFREE2 Forums

Diversifying your portfolio

#1

In a message dated 11/20/2002 2:05:36 AM Pacific Standard Time,
vpFREE@yahoogroups.com writes:

    I will say that this kind of data gathering is yet
another argument in favor of spreading your play around if
you play full time.

    The advantages of spreading your play around are numerous.
This seems like a good time to go ahead and delve into that
topic.

    If you only play 10-20K a month at any given casino, it
is going to take them a long time to get enough useful data to
realize you are a skilled player. Even if they don't do that,
you may regret being noticed as a regular player who seems to
come out ahead in the long run.

    Getting the 'top' mailers at a small number of places
has 2 drawbacks. First, the benefits at the top are rarely
as good. If we plot benefits as a function of coin in on an
x-y plane, the data in most casinos would form a curve that has
a negative derivative. In other words, it starts out fairly steep,
but tends to flatten out.

    The other problem is when one of your base casinos suddenly
decides to cut your benefits. This is usually just caused by
across the board cuts. A recent example is the Fiesta. Without
notice they stopped giving separate mailers for each casino.
For players at the top level at both, this was a nasty cut in
their monthly cash flow. They can move some of that play elsewhere
and restore their overall ER, but it takes 1-3 months to get
the new bounce back money from another casino flowing.

    As an extreme example, spreading your play around also
protects you from dishonesty. Sure, it is rare, but if it
happens at a casino you play heavily, the damage can be really
bad. If you spread your play around, the damage will be less
severe.

..........

        QZ

What QZ lays out here is akin to diversifying your portfolio when choosing
investments, a way to reduce the risk from business cycles peculiar to
different industries AKA "Don't put all your eggs in one basket."

Good advice.

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

#2

There is a somewhat paradoxical effect to "diversifying" play by
spreading it among various casinos that can have an additional benefit
in some instances: increasing overall comp benefits.

When heavy play is concentrated at a single casino, the return on your
play will tend to track the return of the games you play. However,
when it is spread so that no one casino receives the bulk of your play
there is a greater liklihood that the return at any given casino will
deviate from your play EV.

In case of play at a single casino, a fairly consistent high return on
your play will mean that you seldom will receive consideration for
comps outside a fairly tight formula. Since division of play will
more likely result in subpar returns at one or more casinos for an
extended period, you can seek additional comps in consideration of
those losses while comps available at casinos where returns are high
are generally unchanged. This is particularly true in a venue such as
Atlantic City where comps are particularly strong, offsetting a
relatively poor general game inventory.

In the case of my play in AC, while my overall play over the last two
years has been consistently positive, play at one casino in particular
has been somewhat devastating. On several occasions I've been able to
secure special consideration for benefits from my host there (requests
always within a reasonable degree of appropriateness) for which my
play otherwise wouldn't qualify me. Should play reverse itself and I
begin to trend strongly negative elsewhere I'll take similar advantage
at that casino (I'm not saying, of course, that I wouldn't like to see
a return of 103%+ at all the casinos in which I play :).

- Harry

TedChee wrote:

···

What QZ lays out here is akin to diversifying your portfolio when
choosing investments, a way to reduce the risk from business cycles
peculiar to different industries AKA "Don't put all your eggs in one
basket."

Good advice.

#3

Harry, where do you usually paly in Atlantic City. We have been mostly at
Showboat and Caesars. Thanks Tom VPnDice

···

----- Original Message -----
From: "Harry Porter" <harry.porter@verizon.net>
To: <vpFREE@yahoogroups.com>
Sent: Thursday, November 21, 2002 7:09 AM
Subject: [vpFREE] Re: Diversifying your portfolio

In the case of my play in AC, while my overall play over the last two
years has been consistently positive, play at one casino in particular
has been somewhat devastating. On several occasions I've been able to
secure special consideration for benefits from my host there (requests
always within a reasonable degree of appropriateness) for which my
play otherwise wouldn't qualify me. Should play reverse itself and I
begin to trend strongly negative elsewhere I'll take similar advantage
at that casino (I'm not saying, of course, that I wouldn't like to see
a return of 103%+ at all the casinos in which I play :).

- Harry

TedChee wrote:

> What QZ lays out here is akin to diversifying your portfolio when
> choosing investments, a way to reduce the risk from business cycles
> peculiar to different industries AKA "Don't put all your eggs in one
> basket."
>
> Good advice.

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