A related question I have always puzzled about. Does two people playing out of a common bankroll change the risk of return calculation?
Thanks for the help. We play a lot of Pick’Em also, and we would like to understand the bankroll impact of moving from quarters to dollars.
···
From: “vpF…@…com” <vpF…@…com>
To: vpF…@…com
Sent: Thursday, November 7, 2013 8:28 AM
Subject: [vpFREE] Digest Number 8434
6 New Messages
Digest #8434
1a
Re: Question: Free nights (coupons) The Quad by “VP Hearts” vphearts
2a
Re: XVP – Fox car rental in Las Vegas – Long by “Bob Veit” bobve40
3a
Re: Pick 'em Poker Risk of ruin calculation by tringlomane
3b
Re: Pick 'em Poker Risk of ruin calculation by cmayhem2001
3c
Re: Pick 'em Poker Risk of ruin calculation by dunbar_dra
3d
Re: Pick 'em Poker Risk of ruin calculation by johnnyzee48127
Messages
1a
Re: Question: Free nights (coupons) The Quad
Wed Nov 6, 2013 8:06 pm (PST) . Posted by:
“VP Hearts” vphearts
Hello,
I might be interested in this coupon. Where us the Quad? Is that the
newly reopened Lady Luck? Are there restrictions for weekends?
VP hearts
On Tue, Nov 5, 2013 at 8:10 PM, Pat <ky…@…com> wrote:
I have 2 coupons for 2 free nights at The Quad good through Dec 26th.
Email me if you want one or both. Ky…@…comSent from my iPad
On Nov 5, 2013, at 1:55 PM, ky…@…com wrote:
I have 2 coupons each good for 2 free nights at The Quad through December
26th if anyone wants one or both, email me. Pat ky…@…com
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2a
Re: XVP – Fox car rental in Las Vegas – Long
Wed Nov 6, 2013 8:28 pm (PST) . Posted by:
“Bob Veit” bobve40
Strongly recommend against renting from Fox. Rented a number of times from them because of price. I pick up in Vegas, visit my brother in California and return to LAX. Last trip I returned to Lax & walked the car with service attendant who said everything was fine and it was. We had only an hour to get on flight so when I went to return counter I told agent I was in hurry. She said I had to fill out accident report. I told her car was fine, but she said attendant marked damage. I asked to see car and was told I couldn’t as they had put it away. As flight time was now less than an hour I filled out accident report and noted that there was no damage to car and rushed to make our flight. Four months later I received a call from my insurance company saying they had
received a claim from Fox for $2000 in damages. My agent said picture showed major damage so I asked to see picture. When he sent it to me it showed major damage to the front end of the two door, blue Dodge Challenger. I said that was nice, but I had rented a four door black Challenger. He returned claim to Fox denying payment. Six month goes by and surprise he gets another claim from Fox ($1200 this time) with picture of black four door Challenger. They said they were going to pay the claim since it wasn’t a chargeable claim and wouldn’t affect my rate. I told him it was a total rip off as I had walked the car and there was definitely no damage. He said they could contest it, but I would have to appear in court in California to give my story and he felt I should just let it go.
Fox got the money from my insurance company, but they will never get anymore from me or anyone else I can steer away from them.
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3a
Re: Pick 'em Poker Risk of ruin calculation
Wed Nov 6, 2013 9:31 pm (PST) . Posted by:
tringlomane
For the infinite RoR, a powerful formula is here and one can use a spreadsheet to solve it:
http://www.blackjac kforumonline. com/content/ VPRoR.htm http://www.blackjac kforumonline. com/content/ VPRoR.htm
Using this formula you get the following results for games at the dollar level ($5/hand):
50% RoR: $33,650
25% RoR: $67,300
10% RoR: $111,775
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3b
Re: Pick 'em Poker Risk of ruin calculation
Thu Nov 7, 2013 3:39 am (PST) . Posted by:
cmayhem2001
I believe Wolf Video Poker handles PE ror calcs, but you need excel. Online, I think Cindy Liu’s vp bankroll tool handled PE. Last I heard it was being kept by the Wizard, but I haven’t seen it in years. I liked that tool.
C
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3c
Re: Pick 'em Poker Risk of ruin calculation
Thu Nov 7, 2013 4:06 am (PST) . Posted by:
dunbar_dra
Dunbar’s Risk Analyzer for Video Poker will do RoR calcs for Pick’em. You can include the slight payoff variation in your local version as well as the cashback. DRA-VP will do both longterm and short-term RoR calcs.
In fact, Pick’em was the reason I created DRA-VP in the first place. I wanted to know how much money I needed to bring with me on a weekend trip to Mohegan Sun. I knew from the jazbo/sorokin formula how much money I’d need to play Pick’em indefinitely, but how much did I need if I wanted to play the game for 16 hours? I created an Excel sheet to get the answer, and then thought others might find it useful, too.
–Dunbar
—In vpfree@yahoogroups. com, <eric_vp1991@ …> wrote:
Greetings from Southeastern
Wisconsin. In my local casino, there is a bank of $1 near full pay (1195 instead of 1199 for a straight flush) Pick 'em Poker returning 99.9510% with a variance of 14.995645 and a 0.125% cash back slot club. All things considered, it should be a positive EV game 24/7.
Here’s my question: what is the risk of ruin at 50%, 25%, 10% etc.? I cannot find a RoR calculator for Pick 'em Poker anywhere online.
If anyone has any idea on where to find one or has the drive to make one, I think that would help the community immensely.
Thanks
-Eric
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3d
Re: Pick 'em Poker Risk of ruin calculation
Thu Nov 7, 2013 5:28 am (PST) . Posted by:
johnnyzee48127
Eric,
You should purchase DRA, Dunbar’s Risk Analyzer program. I think it is available through LVA and gambler’ s book club. It’s worth many times the $20 price. It will answer all of your questions about the game in question.
PE is a funny game. Even though the long test variance is fairly low, you can lose a ton on money between quads ( about every 2300 hands). Dunbar’s program will show you that you should not give up the day job for this play.
Also, the 99.9531% is for the game with 1199 SF. With an 1195 SF, the return is 99.9510%. Don’t worry too much about the 0.0021% difference.
—In vpFREE@yahoogroups. com, <eric_vp1991@ …> wrote:
… there is a bank of $1 near full pay (1195 instead of 1199 for a straight
flush) Pick 'em Poker returning 99.9510% with a variance of 14.995645 and a 0.125% cash back slot club. All things considered, it should be a positive EV game 24/7.
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