Fordsucks - sorry you got this pretty much all wrong despite your tone.
Fordsucks writes that he would bet it all on one hand if he could - but
this neglects the fact Cal-Neva requires 1 hour of play to get the
rebate or match.
It doesn't really matter if the machine you are playing is +EV or not.
What you want to do in a rebate situation like this is jack up your variance
and either win a boatload or lose roughly $200. So the concession that
10/7 DB has a far higher variance is not a concession - the higher variance
is preferred. You are getting a free shot from the casino - but there is
no way you win $4000 playing blackjack.
While you are even or behind, anything
is pretty much +EV because your winnings will be doubled, and your losses will
be rebated. When you are ahead, your losses are doubled the same as your winnings
are doubled, but this is somewhat mitigated by the fact that if you lose and go
below zero, this puts you back in the huge +EV situation again. In fact, if
you are playing blackjack and cross the $200 threshold, you should stop playing
(well - you should go play nickels until your hour is up).
Nonetheless, were this me, I would probably find a 50 play nickle machine
or something and try to flop quads. Were I to either get $200 or more ahead (and
want to keep my windfall, plus the $200 match) or say, $170 behind (perhaps not wanting
to lose more than the $200 I am getting rebated) I would adjust my play and
go find some nickel machine and work off the rest of the hour.
Frankly, perhaps the best choice is to go find a $5 slot machine, lose $170 or
win a giant jackpot, then while away the rest of the hour. This is sort of what
Fordsucks is saying in his last paragraph (neglecting the one hour requirement).
···
1d. Re: Cal-Neva super sign-up bonus
Posted by: "fordscks" jason_c_vp@yahoo.com fordscks
Date: Tue Mar 13, 2007 10:53 pm ((PDT))That would make a great commercial for Cal-Neva because it will
attract all the Mike-wanna-be's. I am glad Mike made his profit,
but Mike needs to know that is not sustainable as it was a one-time
deal.Here's the stuff Mike didn't tell people:
- The video BJ game has negative expectations -- based on my best
information about this game from IGT, IGT claims the game returns
99.7% (I'm not stating that's the correct E.V., just what I was able
to dig up from IGT literature since I'm an detail-oriented guy). In
order to get that return, you had to play the game properly like
stand 7,5 OR 8,4 versus dealer's 3 (note you would hit T,2 OR 9,3 vs
dealer's 3) BUT hit T,2 versus dealer's 4. There are a lot of weird
hands for this game that most people don't know about. Check out
this site for more info:
http://www.bjmath.com/bjmath/basic/cbs1dh.htm
- Mike didn't realize Cal-Neva had 10/7 DB (100.17%) in nickels,
dimes, etc [however, I will concede that 10/7 DB has far higher
variance than video BJ] so he could have played the promo on a
positive e.v. game.
- Mike employed a low risk strategy to get the money. Some other
people could have just as easily employed a high risk strategy since
it was a free $200 from the casino. Research Steve Jacobs on his
strategy alternatives to EV-based plays and decide which is the
correct risk-based strategy to use. As for me, I would have just
bet it all if I could on one hand and also bet it all again on the
free play because I have to consider my opportunity cost -- there's
no way I'm stitting there betting $0.50 a hand because that's not me.