4a. Poker machines
Date: Tue Oct 2, 2007 11:08 am ((PDT))As for the poker machines, I feel that they'll have a VERY limited
appeal and as such a somewhat limited market.The places where you will see these machines will be in those
jurisdictions that limited human dealers, markets that have
intermittent demand, and finally events that don't pay to have a
human dealer. I believe that in the long run, the majority of the
player market will take a live dealer over a machine the vast
majority of the time.
While the first two situations MAY be appropriate markets, the very-low-limit games will not generate enough rake for the house to justify the purchase of these machines, which are undoubtedly going to be expensive even after the market grows (they have to have 9 or 10 video monitors built in, not to mention the probably-less-expensive CPU, plus software that the house can easily adjust to different games). In fact, even if these tables were not very expensive, I don't think "real" casinos (as opposed to online) will ever spread very-low-stakes games, since just the floor space alone has a better use for the house if used for slots.
To have a successful market, these machines will need to prove themselves as generating more profit for the casino, which they can do by removing the cost of dealers (not that great, most are tip-dependent for their income), including, where applicable, the costs of managing the dealers, interviewing them, sometimes training them, and the hassle of managing human employees with the problems they can generate. More profit for the casino will also be dependent on their acceptance by customers -- just offering poker for a lower cost to the house will NOT be enough if they lose their customers.
I'm not even sure that very busy poker rooms are really best use of floor space for casinos, but they may be necessary to attract people now that poker is so much more popular, with hopes that many of these players will drop money elsewhere in the casino as well. Certainly most poker rooms recognize that many poker players are also sports bettors, as those casinos with sports books OFTEN put them right next to the poker room (or vice versa, I guess) and even those without sports books have lots of TV screens tuned to the big sporting events of the hour.
In my own experience, less than half, and probably less than one fourth of poker players play other games while at the casino -- but those that do so, often play games with an intrinsic house edge, such as craps or non-VP slots, or play blackjack without counting cards, or bet at the sports book where, even if they are skilled enough to beat the house vigorish, the house has an assured "hold".
--BG
ยทยทยท
=============