So you're likely to win as many decisions as you lose...so what?
I find this last part of the statement to be a bit curious.
Assuming you're playing 9/6 JOB. You get a High pair and your 5
coins are returned. You now have 2 choices (not including walking
away entirely).1) You can double up. As you so elegantly put it, you can turn the
result to a 'toss-up' 50-50 shot, double or nothing.2) You can bypass double-up and play another hand of JOB. As you
put it, 'you work hard to get a slight edge'. But, quite frankly,
what edge (assuming cash back doesn't put you over 100%)?
If a player goes to the effort of making correct choices, not playing
hunches, bankrolling adequately, and putting in the time necessary, that
player is supposedly working toward an edge, miniscule or otherwise. It
seems ironic that this same player might throw that "hard-earned" win to
the whims of a 50-50 prop.
Yes, if 50-50 was a stand-lone game I agree that it would get a lot of
action. But, to my knowledge, it isn't. Why not? Why is it only an
option after a player has won a bet already?
Simulate player 2, playing 600/hour of JOB 9/6VP but who plays
double up ONLY when hitting a High Pair. This player doubles up
once and only once when this happens (win or lose). He plays double-
up at a rate of 600/hour.
Actually I like this approach, in that only low-pay wins are re-bet (sorry)
and the option is played consistently on those wins.
It seems to me that in a sense doubling-up is analogous to calling heads
with every coin flip. We know that each flip is a 50-50 prop, but we also
know that the chances of throwing consecutive heads diminish (before the
first flip) as the number of heads we want to flip increases. With
doubling-up we don't have the luxury of ever calling tails.
lb
"variance giveth, variance taketh away"