--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "John.G.Zaroff" <John.G.Zaroff@d...>
wrote:
It takes a lot of horrible 200 hand per hour, 3 coin players to
balance out a couple of 1200 hand per hour, full coin good players.
I think that is what the casinos are seeing and why a lot of good
games are disappearing
John and friends,
I was just about to get to this point but you beat me to the punch.
However I dont think the effects are as much of a factor as you
eluded.
lets take a quick look
you have many losers playing FPDW less than full coin. this short
play in itself is a disaster because if you dont play full coin even
if you play a perfect strategy you are losing a little more than
1.25%. Lets just use your numbers of 5% off perfect or a return of
96.75% so even if our hero can blaze through 1500 hph in a perfect
manner or $1875 or 7500 coins and our loser is turtleing at 300 3
coin hph or $225 or 750 coins per hour. the winner is winning $14.06
per hour and the loser is losing $7.31 per hour. So we can see that
two turtle players more than make up for our superheros winning
action.
So if our superhero is 1 in 100 in the positive players catagory and
the positive catagory to others is 1 in 100 then our superhero to
others is is 1 in 10,000 so for simplicities sake lets remove the
other positive players from the mix of 9,999 others and insert a
equal number of turtles and you have 9,999 turtles losing $7.31 per
hour and one superhero winning $14.06 per hour. summation is -
$73117.687 to $14.06 or a casino profit margin of $73,103.627 per
hour. if of course you assumed all positive players as super heros
and they were 1 in 100 to others the numbers are a bit different.
the turtles are still losing $723.69 and the super hero is still
winning $14.06 . But the poor casinos are down to a palty $709.63
per hour on the mix compaired to 723.69 . As you can see 1 superhero
cost the casino $0.142 of each turtles loss per hour. its like the
turtles are now losing only $7.16 per hour. Now you can see that
getting rid of all the superheros and increasing the turtles loss
per hour the casino can make even more. Of course thats untill the
superheros get together and start voting and hand the casinos and
hand the casinos a 3% tax increase in the next budgetary cycle.
(sorry for digressing here.. just a reminder for those lurking
casino CFO"s 
Now lets use the casinos average expected loss per player hour of 2%
superhero is still winning 14.06 per hour But the turtle is losing
only -$4.5. now you can see that it takes almost 4 turtles to
overcome our superhero.
Now I belive the casinos take is at least 3% of the *average*
players action including our superhero and all his hero friends or
(a SWAG) 4.34% of the turtles action. which is pretty close to the
numbers you gave.
Bottom line lots of turtles few superheros = Big casino profits But
that still doesnt matter. what matters is what is quoted in this
months Casino Journal sept 2003
"The financial pressure that [is] place[ed] upon casino operators is
refected in what you see when you walk on any casino floor: space
dominated by slot machines, with relativly little space given over
to games of skill [they specify VP in this column]. The unintended
consequence of this reliance upon slot machines is that casino
operatior, by in large do not want too many skilled players."
"The operator bottom lines, therefore are best served by those
players who do not care about payout percentages or games of skill"
"yada yada yada"
So you know what this means for our superhero dont you? He's
getting a kryptonyte emima... on the house.
timmer
.