vpFREE2 Forums

Deciphering Machine Hot/Cold Cycles

#1

In a message dated 11/5/2006 11:10:36 P.M. Eastern Standard Time,
rsinger@vptruth.com writes:

Several years ago you may remember that I wrote an article about such cycles
and how they were programmed into every machine you & I play in Nevada--and
probably elsewhere but I don't concentrate on anywhere but Nv. You may have
seen my corresponding video on Singer Vision on my site. The original Gaming
Today article was a big deal to a major machine manufacturer, because I both
received my inside information from one of their software engineers--and a
company senior Vice President asked me (and I agreed out of professional
courtesy only) not to publish any further articles on the subject. He would neither
confirm nor deny my expose'.
Without regard to reason or common sense, of course the math geeks, gurus
and famous names came out and claimed I was crazy....that it was impossible to
mess with a machine's randomness because it would be against "the law". I have
come out numerous times explaining how it was all explained to me by people
who work and program these things every single day---that machine randomness
was maintained while the contractual prime directive of not allowing any
machine ever to venture close to or beyond state mandated high & low hold
percentages always takes precedence. If you understand that hot & cold cycles must
be incorporated into the primary program in order to maintain the integrity
of adhering to the law, you will be able to comprehend that because those
times when that does occur are also random (within an overall pseudo-random
environment) total 'randomness' is not ever compromised.
Why do the gurus diss what they should know is true? Simply because they not
only SELL their total mathematical random argument---they HAVE to have it be
the case. If they for one second ever accepted the truth, it would likely
drive them insane because the reason for their sick addiction of playing many
hours a week with the machines would be comprimised. It would be a
life-changing event, and as anyone who is or has ever been a slave to the video poker
machines can attest, worlds would be turned upside-down.
Truth is truth folks, and I prefer to get my information on machines from
people who build and program them instead of from theorists who sell and
therefore need for things to be their way. How you proceed is up to you. I can only
say I've done much better the past few years of concentrating on detecting
the cycles - with bigger winning hands and less time spent getting them. As
with everything with the machines and the game, most will not put forth the
effort in mastering this important aspect of vp. I'll always help anyone who has
an interest in understand this concept better.
Have a great Thanksgiving Holiday! Rob

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#2

I debated this very issue with Singer several months ago on
freevpfree and demonstrated several reasons why there are NOT any
PROGRAMMED hot and cold cycles. First and foremost is that it would
make the machines ILLEGAL according to Nevada gaming regulations and
there is absolutely no incentive for IGT or any other manufacturer to
risk their business with no monetary incentive. Note that he tries to
claim that these hot and cold cycles are legal which is an absolute
LIE. The regs specifically state that NO SECONDARY PROGRAMING is
allowed. Try to figure out how one would "program" hot and cold
cycles without some form of secondary "programming" ... Can't be done.

It's simply one more of Singer's attempts to make the unsuspecting
gambler believe that he has the inside scoop and people should
respect him.

Dick

PS. If anyone would like to debate this further let's move it to
freevpfree.

In a message dated 11/5/2006 11:10:36 P.M. Eastern Standard Time,
rsinger@... writes:

Several years ago you may remember that I wrote an article about

such cycles

and how they were programmed into every machine you & I play in

Nevada--and

probably elsewhere but I don't concentrate on anywhere but Nv. You

may have

seen my corresponding video on Singer Vision on my site. The

original Gaming

Today article was a big deal to a major machine manufacturer,

because I both

received my inside information from one of their software engineers-

-and a

company senior Vice President asked me (and I agreed out of

professional

courtesy only) not to publish any further articles on the subject.

He would neither

confirm nor deny my expose'.
Without regard to reason or common sense, of course the math geeks,

gurus

and famous names came out and claimed I was crazy....that it was

impossible to

mess with a machine's randomness because it would be against "the

law". I have

come out numerous times explaining how it was all explained to me

by people

who work and program these things every single day---that machine

randomness

was maintained while the contractual prime directive of not

allowing any

machine ever to venture close to or beyond state mandated high &

low hold

percentages always takes precedence. If you understand that hot &

cold cycles must

be incorporated into the primary program in order to maintain the

integrity

of adhering to the law, you will be able to comprehend that

because those

times when that does occur are also random (within an overall

pseudo-random

environment) total 'randomness' is not ever compromised.
Why do the gurus diss what they should know is true? Simply because

they not

only SELL their total mathematical random argument---they HAVE to

have it be

the case. If they for one second ever accepted the truth, it would

likely

drive them insane because the reason for their sick addiction of

playing many

hours a week with the machines would be comprimised. It would be a
life-changing event, and as anyone who is or has ever been a slave

to the video poker

machines can attest, worlds would be turned upside-down.
Truth is truth folks, and I prefer to get my information on

machines from

people who build and program them instead of from theorists who

sell and

therefore need for things to be their way. How you proceed is up to

you. I can only

say I've done much better the past few years of concentrating on

detecting

the cycles - with bigger winning hands and less time spent getting

them. As

with everything with the machines and the game, most will not put

forth the

effort in mastering this important aspect of vp. I'll always help

anyone who has

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, BANDSTAND54@... wrote:

an interest in understand this concept better.
Have a great Thanksgiving Holiday! Rob

#3

Dick,

Just wondering how you define "SECONDARY PROGRAMMING"?
Please give an example or two, if possible.

If 9/6 JOB Program has options A, B, C, D
where
A=Tournament Mode
B=Regular or Normal Mode
C=Extra .02% casino advantage (just a sample guess)
D=Other setting

Does this fall into "SECONDARY PROGRAMMING" category?

Thanks.
gilbert

I debated this very issue with Singer several months ago on
freevpfree and demonstrated several reasons why there are NOT any
PROGRAMMED hot and cold cycles. First and foremost is that it would
make the machines ILLEGAL according to Nevada gaming regulations

and

there is absolutely no incentive for IGT or any other manufacturer

to

risk their business with no monetary incentive. Note that he tries

to

claim that these hot and cold cycles are legal which is an absolute
LIE. The regs specifically state that NO SECONDARY PROGRAMING is
allowed. Try to figure out how one would "program" hot and cold
cycles without some form of secondary "programming" ... Can't be

done.

It's simply one more of Singer's attempts to make the unsuspecting
gambler believe that he has the inside scoop and people should
respect him.

Dick

PS. If anyone would like to debate this further let's move it to
freevpfree.

>
>
> In a message dated 11/5/2006 11:10:36 P.M. Eastern Standard

Time,

> rsinger@ writes:
>
> Several years ago you may remember that I wrote an article about
such cycles
> and how they were programmed into every machine you & I play in
Nevada--and
> probably elsewhere but I don't concentrate on anywhere but Nv.

You

may have
> seen my corresponding video on Singer Vision on my site. The
original Gaming
> Today article was a big deal to a major machine manufacturer,
because I both
> received my inside information from one of their software

engineers-

-and a
> company senior Vice President asked me (and I agreed out of
professional
> courtesy only) not to publish any further articles on the

subject.

He would neither
> confirm nor deny my expose'.
> Without regard to reason or common sense, of course the math

geeks,

gurus
> and famous names came out and claimed I was crazy....that it was
impossible to
> mess with a machine's randomness because it would be against "the
law". I have
> come out numerous times explaining how it was all explained to

me

by people
> who work and program these things every single day---that machine
randomness
> was maintained while the contractual prime directive of not
allowing any
> machine ever to venture close to or beyond state mandated high &
low hold
> percentages always takes precedence. If you understand that hot &
cold cycles must
> be incorporated into the primary program in order to maintain

the

integrity
> of adhering to the law, you will be able to comprehend that
because those
> times when that does occur are also random (within an overall
pseudo-random
> environment) total 'randomness' is not ever compromised.
> Why do the gurus diss what they should know is true? Simply

because

they not
> only SELL their total mathematical random argument---they HAVE to
have it be
> the case. If they for one second ever accepted the truth, it

would

likely
> drive them insane because the reason for their sick addiction of
playing many
> hours a week with the machines would be comprimised. It would be

a

> life-changing event, and as anyone who is or has ever been a

slave

to the video poker
> machines can attest, worlds would be turned upside-down.
> Truth is truth folks, and I prefer to get my information on
machines from
> people who build and program them instead of from theorists who
sell and
> therefore need for things to be their way. How you proceed is up

to

you. I can only
> say I've done much better the past few years of concentrating on
detecting
> the cycles - with bigger winning hands and less time spent

getting

them. As
> with everything with the machines and the game, most will not

put

forth the
> effort in mastering this important aspect of vp. I'll always

help

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "mroejacks" <rgmustain@...> wrote:

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, BANDSTAND54@ wrote:
anyone who has
> an interest in understand this concept better.
> Have a great Thanksgiving Holiday! Rob

#4

I don't know if I can define "secondary programming" but an example
might be a side program that monitors the payout of a machine or group
of machines. If the payout has been too high, it might somehow adjust
the machine to pay out less than expected until things fall into line
again. If the payout has been too low, it might increase the
likelihood of good payouts.

This would obviously violate any randomness requirements and would not
be legal. However, if allowed, I would assemble a team to monitor a
bank of machines until the the payout drops below some threshold, then
jump in and play like gangbusters.

I would think that if there were any truth whatsoever to Singer's
claims, he would be able to assemble a very lucrative team and make a
killing.

- John

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "gilbert_616" <gilbert_616@...> wrote:

Dick,

Just wondering how you define "SECONDARY PROGRAMMING"?
Please give an example or two, if possible.

If 9/6 JOB Program has options A, B, C, D
where
A=Tournament Mode
B=Regular or Normal Mode
C=Extra .02% casino advantage (just a sample guess)
D=Other setting

Does this fall into "SECONDARY PROGRAMMING" category?

Thanks.
gilbert

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "mroejacks" <rgmustain@> wrote:
>
> I debated this very issue with Singer several months ago on
> freevpfree and demonstrated several reasons why there are NOT any
> PROGRAMMED hot and cold cycles. First and foremost is that it would
> make the machines ILLEGAL according to Nevada gaming regulations
and
> there is absolutely no incentive for IGT or any other manufacturer
to
> risk their business with no monetary incentive. Note that he tries
to
> claim that these hot and cold cycles are legal which is an absolute
> LIE. The regs specifically state that NO SECONDARY PROGRAMING is
> allowed. Try to figure out how one would "program" hot and cold
> cycles without some form of secondary "programming" ... Can't be
done.
>
> It's simply one more of Singer's attempts to make the unsuspecting
> gambler believe that he has the inside scoop and people should
> respect him.
>
> Dick
>
> PS. If anyone would like to debate this further let's move it to
> freevpfree.
>
> --- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, BANDSTAND54@ wrote:
> >
> >
> > In a message dated 11/5/2006 11:10:36 P.M. Eastern Standard
Time,
> > rsinger@ writes:
> >
> > Several years ago you may remember that I wrote an article about
> such cycles
> > and how they were programmed into every machine you & I play in
> Nevada--and
> > probably elsewhere but I don't concentrate on anywhere but Nv.
You
> may have
> > seen my corresponding video on Singer Vision on my site. The
> original Gaming
> > Today article was a big deal to a major machine manufacturer,
> because I both
> > received my inside information from one of their software
engineers-
> -and a
> > company senior Vice President asked me (and I agreed out of
> professional
> > courtesy only) not to publish any further articles on the
subject.
> He would neither
> > confirm nor deny my expose'.
> > Without regard to reason or common sense, of course the math
geeks,
> gurus
> > and famous names came out and claimed I was crazy....that it was
> impossible to
> > mess with a machine's randomness because it would be against "the
> law". I have
> > come out numerous times explaining how it was all explained to
me
> by people
> > who work and program these things every single day---that machine
> randomness
> > was maintained while the contractual prime directive of not
> allowing any
> > machine ever to venture close to or beyond state mandated high &
> low hold
> > percentages always takes precedence. If you understand that hot &
> cold cycles must
> > be incorporated into the primary program in order to maintain
the
> integrity
> > of adhering to the law, you will be able to comprehend that
> because those
> > times when that does occur are also random (within an overall
> pseudo-random
> > environment) total 'randomness' is not ever compromised.
> > Why do the gurus diss what they should know is true? Simply
because
> they not
> > only SELL their total mathematical random argument---they HAVE to
> have it be
> > the case. If they for one second ever accepted the truth, it
would
> likely
> > drive them insane because the reason for their sick addiction of
> playing many
> > hours a week with the machines would be comprimised. It would be
a
> > life-changing event, and as anyone who is or has ever been a
slave
> to the video poker
> > machines can attest, worlds would be turned upside-down.
> > Truth is truth folks, and I prefer to get my information on
> machines from
> > people who build and program them instead of from theorists who
> sell and
> > therefore need for things to be their way. How you proceed is up
to
> you. I can only
> > say I've done much better the past few years of concentrating on
> detecting
> > the cycles - with bigger winning hands and less time spent
getting
> them. As
> > with everything with the machines and the game, most will not
put
> forth the
> > effort in mastering this important aspect of vp. I'll always
help
> anyone who has
> > an interest in understand this concept better.
> > Have a great Thanksgiving Holiday! Rob
>

#5

Can you say "Class Action Lawsuit?"

Please feel free to forward this thought to any shark you know.

Tom

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "murphyfields" <jkludge@...> wrote:

I would think that if there were any truth whatsoever to Singer's
claims, he would be able to assemble a very lucrative team and make a
killing.

- John

#6

Secondary programming is any set of programming code that would modify
the results of a RNG to change the machine payout. Even improving the
payout in some manner would violate the law. For example the code could
look at each card selected by the RNG and change every 5th ace to a
five. This would effectively lower the payout of any bonus game. The
possibilities are endless.

Dick

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "gilbert_616" <gilbert_616@...> wrote:

Dick,

Just wondering how you define "SECONDARY PROGRAMMING"?
Please give an example or two, if possible.

#7

I'm surprised to see this discussion given that we all know RS is
full of BS. :slight_smile:

As long as we are on a trip to fantasy land, let's pretend for a
moment that machines have a secondary program to make sure they don't
fall behind the state mandated 75% minimum, thus violating the law.
Which is what is claimed by RS.

If this were true it would explain only a "hot cycle", not a cold
cycle. RS doesn't offer an explaination of why a machine might have
a "cold cycle", just like he can't explain much of what he says.

It would be logical to assume that if there were a "hot cycle" mode
to make the machine pay out at least 75%, it would not be enacted
until the machine had run at a payout rate below this for a
significant number of hands. I would guess that even a machine with a
very poor paytable played badly would beat this percentage for most
of it's life-cycle.

This is all made very academic by the regulations, which as has been
stated do not allow for such a secondary program and state clearly
how a VP machine must function.
-JFR

#8

Jerry Reller wrote:

I'm surprised to see this discussion given that we all know RS is
full of BS. :slight_smile:

It doesn't take Rob to initiate a discussion on why the machines just
don't seem random (particularly when we're losing ;). It's simple
human nature and it should be clear that no degree of reasoning will
satisfy that question if the simple statement "They are" isn't sufficient.

- Harry

#9

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Harry Porter" <harry.porter@...>
wrote:

It doesn't take Rob to initiate a discussion on why the machines

just

don't seem random (particularly when we're losing ;). It's simple
human nature and it should be clear that no degree of reasoning will
satisfy that question if the simple statement "They are" isn't

sufficient.

- Harry

Harry,
The discussion follows the myth created by RS. Hot and Cold cycles
secondary programs... The discussion may not have been directly
initiated by him, but he planted the seed. I was just applying a
little Round-up, to prevent growth. :slight_smile:

I agree that it is human nature to question why machines don't seem
random. The problem with human brains are they have a hard time
knowing what random looks like, because they are wired to see
patterns.
-JFR

#10

Jerry Reller wrote:

The discussion follows the myth created by RS.

OMG! I've sat next to li'l ol' ladies from central PA who didn't need
his inspiration to suggest to me that the machines are induced in some
fashion to surve up hot and cold cycles -- unless I overlooked his
column in the current-day equivalent to "Grit".

(Can you believe I used to peddle that rag door to door in northern
Mich. 40 years ago -- it was a fall back when for some reason folks
cooled down in their interest in the flower seeds I'd offer up with an
earnest face come June or so.)

- Harry

#11

I had the director of slots at a casino tel me the
spec sheets of the multi-denominational VP games in
his casino says that each denomination had its own
separate hot and cold cycles that the machine would go
in, so that the proper thing to do , playing vp, was
to switch the demoninations and look for the "hot"
cycle ones. That is how he plays when he is at other
casinos. I argued with him for able 10 minutes, but to
no avail. I wonder if the specs show a probable
distribution in a month and are easily misinterpreted.

I asked to see the specs but was respectfully refused.
:slight_smile:

Mark

···

--- Harry Porter <harry.porter@verizon.net> wrote:

Jerry Reller wrote:
> The discussion follows the myth created by RS.

OMG! I've sat next to li'l ol' ladies from central
PA who didn't need
his inspiration to suggest to me that the machines
are induced in some
fashion to surve up hot and cold cycles -- unless I
overlooked his
column in the current-day equivalent to "Grit".

(Can you believe I used to peddle that rag door to
door in northern
Mich. 40 years ago -- it was a fall back when for
some reason folks
cooled down in their interest in the flower seeds
I'd offer up with an
earnest face come June or so.)

- Harry

____________________________________________________________________________________
Cheap talk?
Check out Yahoo! Messenger's low PC-to-Phone call rates.
http://voice.yahoo.com

#12

Mark Marsh wrote:

I had the director of slots at a casino tel me the
spec sheets of the multi-denominational VP games in
his casino says that each denomination had its own
separate hot and cold cycles that the machine would go
in, so that the proper thing to do, playing vp, was
to switch the demoninations and look for the "hot"
cycle ones. That is how he plays when he is at other
casinos. I argued with him for able 10 minutes, but to
no avail. I wonder if the specs show a probable
distribution in a month and are easily misinterpreted.

I asked to see the specs but was respectfully refused.
:slight_smile:

I think you'll agree that this is, at best, a true testament to the
sad acumen of the typcial slot manager. I fully expect that those
here who do have access to such specs will note the inclusion of
details such as PAR sheets, detailing the full set of variables that
yield a machine's ER, but won't make reference to general notions such
as "cycles". And while it is conceivable that a manufacturer might
includes statistics on a game's volatility (expected distribution), I
find even that far fetched -- you don't go out of the way to confuse
your customer.

(The very idea that a machines hot/cold cycling could be physically
manipulated, short of defeating the randomness of the machine itself,
is nonsense -- when "cycling" is perceived, it's the mere consequence
of randomness itself ... and therefore is not a predictor of play.
But, admittedly, that's a "til blue in the face" statement.)

Concerning slot manager "acumen", the simplistic grasp of machine
mechanics and play expectation is something that works to a players
favor in some circumstances, and disadvantage in others. In general,
I see any ignorance of the part of a slot manager as being a bad thing
for the recreational player in the big picture. While it may
erroneously yield the occasional high EV aberation on the floor, in
the greater scheme of things it leaves slot managers paranoid of
inadvertantly giving away the house -- and consequently keeping
paytables tighter than necessary for the house to still have a good
advantage and position the casino competitively.

Don't look for any change in that situation. Slot machines are so
wildly profitable for the casino even under mediocre management that
they seem very poorly motivated to focus on that aspect when targeting
revenue improvement.

- Harry

#13

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Harry Porter" <harry.porter@...>
wrote:

-- when "cycling" is perceived, it's the mere consequence
of randomness itself ... and therefore is not a predictor of play.
But, admittedly, that's a "til blue in the face" statement.)

Here's a little "blueness" for Harry ...

The recent discussion on hot and cold machines raised my curiosity a
little. I wondered whether the RNG algorithm itself could exhibit hot
and cold periods from a VP perspecitive. Of course, there's really
nothing you and one can do about hot and cold cycles if they do exist
since moving to another machine may result in moving from a machine
just going into a hot cycle to a machine in a cold cycle.

So, why should I care? Like I said curiosity.

I decided to take the Knuth RNG and evaluate it for JOB. The
algorithm I looked at generates a billion numbers which are converted
to cards by simply dividing by 52 and indexing into an array of 52
cards using the remainder. The program uses a unique seed to
correspond to an individual sitting down at a machine. I then
evaluated ALL of the hands generated from that spot in the RNG cycle
for a given number of hands. I choose 100-200K hands since the RNG
keeps running while the individual is playing. It's clearly debatable
whether this is enough hands to simulate all the possibilities for a
given session. If we assume the RNG generates 1000+ possible hands in
a second then this figure would only cover a few seconds. While this
estimate is probably a reasonable value for the latest machines, many
players (including myself) still use older technology machines that
may run 10-100 times slower. On these machine we could be looking at
one to two hours of play. Certainly, I could extend the number of
hands if anyone is curious.

I coudn't decide if I should just evaluate the dealt hands or look at
perfect draws as well, so I did both. In the first case I took 5 RNG
generated numbers, converted them to cards, found the AVERAGE return
from the best hold and continued on for 200K hands. In the second
case I filled in the hands using the next sequential RNG values and
used the ACTUAL return from this approach. Obviously, there will be
some variation of results. The question of hot/cold really depends on
how large of variation is found and since an individual is choosing
from a small subset of the available hands that adds in even more
uncertainty. It is clearly possible to have good results from a poor
choice of hands and vice versa.

So, what did I find out? For one, I found the variation to be higher
when drawn cards were used to determine the result. That should not
be surprising since additional uncertainty will clearly increase the
variation. In addition, I found the variation decreased as the number
of hands increased. Once again this should not be surprising as we
expect this from our play as well. In fact, looking at any sequential
set of RNG numbers should not be mathematically different than
selecting hands at random as the RNG cycles which is what happens
when we are playing VP.

Also, it should be noted that "goodness" is related to the game being
played. That is, a deuces games may appear "hot" when a JOB game
appears "cold". So, if you're not too bored by now here's the results
based on 1000 sessions:

100K hands, max-min variation for dealt hands = 98.2857 - 102.078
100K hands, max-min variation for played hands = 96.125 - 104.376

200K hands, max-min variation for dealt hands = 98.7607 - 100.598
200K hands, max-min variation for played hands = 97.1165 - 102.243

Comments?

Dick

#14

{Snip}
I decided to take the Knuth RNG and evaluate
it for JOB.

Is it me or are there very few people
left in the world who remember Donald
Knuth? I went and consulted my copy of
the Art of Computer Programming. Just
looking at those books makes me feel
good.

P.S. As long as one can only recognize
any "hot" or "cold" streak in retrospect
it doesn't matter if they randomly
exist. Until someone can predict one
it's a non-issue.

#15

I still remember. I go down to my work library and check out one of
his books, maybe once a year, hoping that will be enough activity for
them to keep it.

I think Knuth would point out that, if you can detect a "true" hot or
cold cycle in a RNG, then there is a flaw in the RNG that needs to be
fixed.

- John

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "worldbefree22001" <krajewski.sa@...>
wrote:

···

> {Snip}
> I decided to take the Knuth RNG and evaluate
> it for JOB.

Is it me or are there very few people
left in the world who remember Donald
Knuth? I went and consulted my copy of
the Art of Computer Programming. Just
looking at those books makes me feel
good.

P.S. As long as one can only recognize
any "hot" or "cold" streak in retrospect
it doesn't matter if they randomly
exist. Until someone can predict one
it's a non-issue.

#16

Congratulations on capturing, in one short sentence, a perfect
description of the effect of "randomness" on our VP play.

Of all the long and detailed explanations that I've read from the
experts, I do think that yours succinctly cuts right to the heart
of the matter!

I believe, as I think that you do, that only the charlatans of the
VP world, insist that they can predict in advance when
these "streaks" will occur, and can therefore adjust their play
accordingly.

Were they actually able to prognosticate in this manner, due to some
machine malfunction, surely they would plant themselves in front of
the erring machine for days if not weeks on end. They would also
keep this valuable secret to themselves.

Regards,
~Babe~

···

====================================================
In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "worldbefree22001"
<krajewski.sa@...wrote:

P.S. As long as one can only recognize any "hot" or "cold" streak in
retrospect it doesn't matter if they randomly exist. Until someone
can predict one it's a non-issue.

#17

Also, it should be noted that "goodness" is related to the game being
played. That is, a deuces games may appear "hot" when a JOB game
appears "cold". So, if you're not too bored by now here's the results
based on 1000 sessions:

100K hands, max-min variation for dealt hands = 98.2857 - 102.078
100K hands, max-min variation for played hands = 96.125 - 104.376

200K hands, max-min variation for dealt hands = 98.7607 - 100.598
200K hands, max-min variation for played hands = 97.1165 - 102.243

Dick,

I'll note up front that I'm on vacation ... (yet, still obviously
suffering from a vp obsession ;). So, at any rate, I'm browsing for a
few minutes while Bev prepares breakfast in advance a modestly
rigorous hike planned for the day (we're doing some crater inspection :slight_smile:

So, my review of your post is subject to a 2-min attention span test.
And within that constraint, I'm not quite getting what you're driving
at on the "cycle" thing.

Here's the nub: An argument that supports the idea of cycling
necessarily evidences that past behavior gives rise to a basis on
which to expect future behavior. In other words, if a machine has
been running "cold", than the greater likelihood is that it will
continue to run cold and therefore it's to your advantage to change
machines.

If the term "cycling" is being used to merely describe the variability
of play -- that, indeed, at times a machine will go through "cold" and
"hot" play periods -- that's nothing more than relabeling of the
natural volatility inherent in any phenomenon.

So, in any discussion that seeks to give credence to machine cycling,
I'm looking for evidence that if you change machines at some point in
play, your EXPECTED outcome of play will differ.

I'm sure there's a lot that's gone over my head in your post on this.
If you can, speak to me simply and hit me between the eyes with the
crux of your point.

- Harry

#18

Harry, I knew what the data said to me. I didn't want to bias any
feedback so I didn't explicitly state what the numbers clearly
indicate, that this RNG behaves ... well ... randomly.

There is variation in the RNG that will slightly impact someone's
results on slower technology machines over short periods of time. Is
there any way to use this information? Not to my knowledge.

However, we know that a VP machine RNG is really pseudo-random and
hence it could meet all the requirements of randomness over many trials
yet still feature short-term non-random behavior. My data demonstrates
that for the tested RNG it is quite random even over a fairly short
span of hands.

Dick

PS. Does anyone know the RNG used in VP machines today?

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Harry Porter" <harry.porter@...> wrote:

I'm sure there's a lot that's gone over my head in your post on this.
If you can, speak to me simply and hit me between the eyes with the
crux of your point.

#19

mroejacks wrote:

Harry, I knew what the data said to me. I didn't want to bias any
feedback so I didn't explicitly state what the numbers clearly
indicate, that this RNG behaves ... well ... randomly.

Sorry for needing to be hit over the head and for my likely not taking
sufficient care to absorb your post. Blame it on the lull of the
breeze in the palms. (Let me know when the trip references get overly
obnoxious :wink:

Your observation is gratifying -- and perhaps it's at least a bit
convincing enough to others so as not to be just another voice heard
only by the already converted :wink:

- H.

#20

The hot and cold cyles are clearly indicated on the top panel of the
machine. If you want to add fabric softner be aware that timing is
crucial! Even though I have put substantial coin in on these machines
over the years sadly I have yet earn a single cents worth of slot club
points. M