--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "wheelman_1175" <wheelman_1175@y...>
wrote:
> I have often wondered though, what the 40,000
> hand average, for a RF to appear, really means. Must it be
40,000
> continous hands on one machine? If it's an M/G machine, one
game?
> Does any one have a opinion, or actual facts about this? I'd be
> interested in comments.
> A Royal to all.....in 10,000 hands, if possible!
The terms commonly in use are unfortunate. The idea of a "royal
cycle" of n hands leads to the notion of "an interval of n (or
maybe
n-1) hands between Royals." All we really "know", though, is that
the chance of a Royal on the next hand is 1/40,000 (or whatever
the,
er, cycle is). There also exists math to specify the chance of a
Royal sometime in the next 30,000 (or whatever) hands.
However, if you don't get a Royal on the next hand, it does not
change the probabilities for the hand after that (also
unfortunate,
I guess - you may be "overdue" but the machine has no idea of
this ... 8-).
Also, if you move to a new machine, it doesn't know you failed to
get a Royal in 10,000 hands on the neighboring machine. And the
machine you deserted doesn't know either. Nor will either machine
be insulted when, upon failing to get a Royal on the next hand,
you
declare, "Stupid @#$%^& machine," as I like to do ... 8-).
Thus concerns about 40,000 (or whatever cycle) hands on one
machine,
···
or details of the machine type, are really irrelevant.
Wheel Man
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Thanks for an interesting and intelligent post. Also, thanks
for letting me know you posted it. I would have missed it o/w.
I agree that it's irrelevant how frequently (or infrequently) the
most beautiful of SFs appear, however, it just seemed like a good
topic for discussion that day.
I have actually gone for months w/o a Royal, and than hit 3 w/i a
short period of time. I have drawn a Royal from every conceivable
hold i.e. drawing 5 new cards to holding RF4. I've drawn
sucessfully to singleton Ace, K10, KJ, J10, AQ etc. I've never
snagged a Royal from A10 however. Perhaps because I only hold A10
when chasing a prog. I try not to do that too often as, usually, it
is quite costly to my bankroll. I have scored a few prog. Royals,
but I'm still way negative, over the years, while playing them.
May all your straight flushes be Royals.
Babe