vpFREE2 Forums

DBL UP and VP

Brian wrote:

Dan, did you miss the OP's assumption (machine malfunction) that a tie in
the doubled hand results in a win for the player?

If doubling has an EV of way over 100% (105.88%), how can the overall EV not
be increased when doubling?

No, I didn't miss that. It's a mighty big assumption that the player will win the ties, or even that the odds are any different after a tie. Why would anyone assume that?

Unless the machine is malfunctioning, the probabilities on a double up are 50/50, so the overall game expected return is unchanged. Only the variance, and thus the Risk of Ruin are changed, unfortunately for the worse.

If the machine is malfunctioning, and the player knows it, then he/she is committing a felony under Nevada law, making the long-term expectation very negative.

Dan

···

--
Dan Paymar
Author of best selling book, "Video Poker - Optimum Play"
Developer of VP analysis/trainer software "Optimum Video Poker"
Visit my web site at www.OptimumPlay.com

"Chance favors the prepared mind." -- Louis Pasteur

Brian wrote:
>Dan, did you miss the OP's assumption (machine malfunction) that a

tie in

>the doubled hand results in a win for the player?
>
>If doubling has an EV of way over 100% (105.88%), how can the

overall EV not

>be increased when doubling?

No, I didn't miss that. It's a mighty big assumption that the

player

will win the ties, or even that the odds are any different after a
tie. Why would anyone assume that?

Unless the machine is malfunctioning, the probabilities on a double
up are 50/50, so the overall game expected return is unchanged.

Only

the variance, and thus the Risk of Ruin are changed, unfortunately
for the worse.

If the machine is malfunctioning, and the player knows it, then
he/she is committing a felony under Nevada law, making the long-

term

expectation very negative.

It's hard for me to believe a machine could malfunction in this
manner. It would seem to me it was intentionally set-up for something
like this to happen continually. I would see no problem in taking
advantage of this opportunity if I ran across it. It's no different
than a 10/6 DDB machine next to a 7/5 machine. No one would claim the
10/6 machine was malfunctioning.

Dick

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, Dan Paymar <Dan@...> wrote:

Dick-

Those are my thoughts also, with all the new games and bells and
whistles on new VP machines, slot machines, various bonus rounds, who
am I to judge if a machine is "set" wrong or is malfunctioning ?

Maybe there is a reason that it is set this way for some unknown
reason to me, maybe it doesn't even happen all the time either. Do
you question why the SUPER TIMES pay multiplier does NOT spin out
after many, many more hands then the stated avg. norm ??? Doesn't
everyone question that also ? I have played many sessions of super
times pay without a multiplier appearing, even ONCE, so should I
question that as a machine malfunction, because of a "negative" impact
on me ? Maybe it was, maybe it wasn't . . .

Vegas folks, you can relax, it's not in your area or jurisdiction !

It does crack me up when I see someone next to me DBL UP like 8 times
in a row and lose like mucho $$$$, on that last failed DBL up bet.....

When is enough, enough ?

Thanks, for the information that I asked for !

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "mroejacks" <rgmustain@...> wrote:

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, Dan Paymar <Dan@> wrote:
>
> Brian wrote:
> >Dan, did you miss the OP's assumption (machine malfunction) that a
tie in
> >the doubled hand results in a win for the player?
> >
> >If doubling has an EV of way over 100% (105.88%), how can the
overall EV not
> >be increased when doubling?
>
> No, I didn't miss that. It's a mighty big assumption that the
player
> will win the ties, or even that the odds are any different after a
> tie. Why would anyone assume that?
>
> Unless the machine is malfunctioning, the probabilities on a double
> up are 50/50, so the overall game expected return is unchanged.
Only
> the variance, and thus the Risk of Ruin are changed, unfortunately
> for the worse.
>
> If the machine is malfunctioning, and the player knows it, then
> he/she is committing a felony under Nevada law, making the long-
term
> expectation very negative.

It's hard for me to believe a machine could malfunction in this
manner. It would seem to me it was intentionally set-up for something
like this to happen continually. I would see no problem in taking
advantage of this opportunity if I ran across it. It's no different
than a 10/6 DDB machine next to a 7/5 machine. No one would claim the
10/6 machine was malfunctioning.

Dick