I am sure this has been discussed at length before now, but I thought
I would offer an objective opinion to the ideas behind the Rob Singer
method. To those asking, I have never met Rob Singer, and have no
knowledge of him other than reading the VPTRUTH website, and some of
these forums.
Basically, I approach the playing of Video Poker as a hobby, not an
obsession. I live in Texas, only go to Vegas maybe twice a year at
most, sometimes go to Shreveport for some gambling fun, and otherwise
play online poker at micro-limits (0.25/0.50) which is +EV for me.
Up to last year, my usual experience of visiting a casino (Vegas or
wherever) to play video poker was to try and find the positive EV pay
tables at a reasonable denomination (not easy on the Strip, basically
impossible in Lousiana) camp on one denomination of Video Poker and
feed in bills, playing until one of 3 outcomes occurs:
1. 0 credits left = You are broke
2. You hit a Royal Flush ( never happened yet for me ).
3. You have to leave for some kind of time commitment, like dinner
with a friend, a show, meeting the spouse or girlfriend, or whatever.
4. You hit a "Big Enough" jackpot to get ahead of the machine
enough to think about quitting.
While screwing around, I have tried playing Jacks-or-Better, Deuces
Wild, Bonus Poker, and Double-Double Bonus Poker. Although not
perfect in my strategy, I have read enough books and practiced enough
strategy at home (video poker simulator software) to at least be
playing better than the normal idiots in the casino.
The only times I have ever come home a winner, was when I was playing
the Double-Double Bonus Poker machine, hit a big 4 of a kind, or 4
Aces with a 2, and CASHED OUT. On every other machine, even 4 of a
kind was not enough of a jump to even bump me up to even on the
machine. In most cases, the Jacks-or-Better machine provided the
longest playing time, but there was never enough of a bump up from
any big hands to hit a definite decision point to quit the machine
ahead (gee, I wonder if it was designed that way for a reason... lol).
Anyways, after studying my experiences and also thinking about the
components of VP, I realized that Rob Singer was really onto
something - mastering the psychology of QUITTING WHEN AHEAD. His
method also makes it very likely that you will eventually reach a
point where you can CHOOSE TO QUIT WHILE AHEAD. In the meantime,
you never have to hit a Royal, but since you are playing the
machines, you are automatically exposed to the possibility of hitting
a Royal and generating a big win from that anyways. Your
probability in winning will come from what denomination you choose to
START the sequence with ( lower = better since you will survive
longer ), and HOW MUCH BANKROLL you have to play with.
So, basically to me the great thing about the Rob Singer method is
that you are basically waiting for a 4-of-a-kind to quit with a
profit, instead of waiting for a Royal Flush to quit with a profit.
I have never yet seen a Royal Flush, but have seen MANY 4-of-a-kind
hands, in fact, usually AT LEAST ONE or TWO in every session.
The other thing is I find that I enjoy the game more, do not have to
be "frantic" trying to get in 10,000 hands in the least amount of
time so I can get ahead of the "long term mathematics", or any other
such nonsense. One of the books I read was talking about not
wanting to wait to be paid out on big hands, so intentionally
choosing a slightly inferior strategy because it was "+EV in terms of
time". What a load of crap! I want a big jackpot, I enjoy
waiting ( celebrating/relishing the win ), and I am in no hurry.
After all, this is supposed to be FUN, right? Not a grind.
Anyways, I know as others have pointed out that the long term will
catch up with you and you will lose over time. Well, just for
kicks, calculate how many hands that would be, and tell me whether I
will live long enough to reach that level of hands in a lifetime.
Remember, I am playing maybe 3-4 times a year for a couple of days at
a time. I can tell you that playing a non-progressive strategy on
any machine without using some kind of system like Rob's will either
leave you with a Royal win, or zero credits eventually. Which
would you prefer? I would rather win more often than just when I
get a Royal, which hasn't happened to me yet.
Thanks Rob for pointing out the obvious to us,
A Gambler from Texas