vpFREE2 Forums

Coin-in Versus Theoretical Loss...A Distinction Without A Difference

A common mistake in both the vpFree database and in postings is not
understanding that coin-in and theoretical loss calculations, as far
as comps are concerned, are the same measures. Just what exactly are
casinos calculating theoretical loss on, coin-in. The real change
that is occuring, is mostly based on the changing spread between
theoretical loss and actual loss experienced by the casinos.

Historically most vp players play at 2% below the theoretically
correct level. Casinos in the past tended to comp on this level of
loss, e.g. 9/6 JOB assume 2.5% loss historical...now something much
closer to 0.5%. This is where the big comp gains can be made
in "skilled" games, skilled blackjack players also reap this benefit.
That's a Big Change.

I suspect the pendulum will swing back in the skilled players
direction, since the vast majority of players, even in Vegas, are
unskilled in their play. How long can the casinos comp people who are
losing 2-5% as if they were losing 0-3%, from a coin-in perspective
this difference is huge. It also appears that casinos seem less likly
to make allowances for actual player's losses when awarding
discretionary comps.

Just as in banking the optimal level of non-performing loans is not
zero, you lose too many good customers by having standards too
strict. Casinos will soon figure out that it is optimally profitable
to have a small segement of your clientele that is over comped.

Perhaps if casinos hired knowledgable management consultants instead
of dim witted gambling addicted players that moonlight as casino
consultants, the business would be more profitable for everyone,
player and stockholder alike.

thymos_one
Casino Comps
New Group Dedicated to Tracking Casino Comps
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/casino_comps/

This isn't correct.

Theoretical loss equals coin-in times a game's theoretical loss
rating. This means that theo never equals coin-in, unless a
game's theo rating is 100%, which I've never heard of (although
some of the slot machines at the old Vegas World came close).

Theoretical loss is a function of coin-in, but isn't the same
measurement. Theoretical loss is also a function of each game's
theoretical loss rating, which often varies from game to game.
Coin-in OTOH isn't a function of a particular game's theoretical
loss rating.

Bottom line: $10,000 coin-in that generates a $100 theo often
earns a lot less in comps than $10,000 coin-in that generates
a $500 theo.

vpFae

ยทยทยท

On 19 Oct 2005 at 6:10, thymos_one wrote:

A common mistake in both the vpFree database and in postings is not
understanding that coin-in and theoretical loss calculations, as far as
comps are concerned, are the same measures.

--- In FREEvpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "vpFae6128305" <vpfae6128305@C...>
wrote:

Theoretical loss is a function of coin-in, but isn't the same
measurement. Theoretical loss is also a function of each game's
theoretical loss rating, which often varies from game to game.
Coin-in OTOH isn't a function of a particular game's theoretical
loss rating.

All casinos are going to have some sort of mapping function on the
coin-in amount. What casinos are saying when they change to
theoretical loss, is that their calculation of comps will be based on
coin-in times theoretical loss of the game instead of actual loss
experience times coin-in, which has been widely reported to be around
2% worse.

It does seem like most hosts don't think in terms of coin-in, but
rather, length of time and denomination. Which, of course is related
to coin-in, but is not exactly the same thing.

All in all it does get to the heart of what has made vidoe poker such
rewarding hobby, play at less than a 1% disadvantage but get comped
on 3%+, I suspect even greater than this since I believe most casinos
lumped all video poker together, even the awful 6/5 JOB.

The same goes for table games, blackjack may have less than 1% casino
advantage if played perfectly, but most people don't, so actual
experience is worse. The knowledgeable blackjack player gets rewared
with generous comps.

Bottom line: $10,000 coin-in that generates a $100 theo often
earns a lot less in comps than $10,000 coin-in that generates
a $500 theo.

Yes, I agree.