vpFREE2 Forums

Co-Variance

#1

As far as I have been able to determine, no one has as yet come up with a way to accurately calculate Risk of Ruin on multi-play machines. For this reason, I have written a program to do a Monte Carlo simulation of play on such machines. The current issue of Video Poker Times, which was mailed out to subscribers this morning, contains tables comparing play on single line, triple play and ten play machines with the same per-line bet for common 9/6 Jacks or Better.

The next two issues will provide similar tables for Double Bonus Poker and Not So Ugly Ducks. If you are not a current subscriber, you can order these three issues for only $20.00.

For possibly the first time, these simulations gives a practical feeling for comparable risk.

Dan

···

--
Dan Paymar
Author of best selling book, "Video Poker - Optimum Play"
Editor/Publisher of VP newsletter "Video Poker Times"
Developer of VP analysis/trainer software "Optimum Video Poker"
Visit my web site at www.OptimumPlay.com

"Chance favors the prepared mind." -- Louis Pasteur

#2

This sounds like important work, Dan. I'm looking forward to seeing
it.

--Dunbar

As far as I have been able to determine, no one has as yet come up
with a way to accurately calculate Risk of Ruin on multi-play
machines. For this reason, I have written a program to do a Monte
Carlo simulation of play on such machines. The current issue of

Video

Poker Times, which was mailed out to subscribers this morning,
contains tables comparing play on single line, triple play and ten
play machines with the same per-line bet for common 9/6 Jacks or
Better.

The next two issues will provide similar tables for Double Bonus
Poker and Not So Ugly Ducks. If you are not a current subscriber,

you

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, Dan Paymar <Dan@...> wrote:

can order these three issues for only $20.00.

For possibly the first time, these simulations gives a practical
feeling for comparable risk.

Dan

--
Dan Paymar
Author of best selling book, "Video Poker - Optimum Play"
Editor/Publisher of VP newsletter "Video Poker Times"
Developer of VP analysis/trainer software "Optimum Video Poker"
Visit my web site at www.OptimumPlay.com

"Chance favors the prepared mind." -- Louis Pasteur

#3

So what are the challenges of determining the RoR on multi-play games.
Is it a matter of determining an equivalent pay table. For example,
do you need a paytable and probabilities for things like

(using triple play as an example)

3 royals - 3400
2 royals + SF - 1850
2 royals + 4K - 1725
etc.

down to

1 JoB + 2 garbage - 1
3 garbage - 0

Could these be added into programs for calculating basic machine
statistics? I realize things get pretty long as the number of hands
increases (3x not too bad, 100x very difficult).

I'm just wondering where the problems are, and why it hasn't been
solved yet.

Thanks

- John

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, Dan Paymar <Dan@...> wrote:

As far as I have been able to determine, no one has as yet come up
with a way to accurately calculate Risk of Ruin on multi-play
machines. For this reason, I have written a program to do a Monte
Carlo simulation of play on such machines. The current issue of Video
Poker Times, which was mailed out to subscribers this morning,
contains tables comparing play on single line, triple play and ten
play machines with the same per-line bet for common 9/6 Jacks or
Better.

The next two issues will provide similar tables for Double Bonus
Poker and Not So Ugly Ducks. If you are not a current subscriber, you
can order these three issues for only $20.00.

For possibly the first time, these simulations gives a practical
feeling for comparable risk.

Dan

#4

Hello:

I have played with the idea of coming up with an equivalent paytable
for a multiline machine. At first I expected the complexity to grow
very quickly. For example, a single-line JoB has 10 entries, and I
figured a two-liner would have around 55, and that, as you added more
lines the complexity would increase exponentially, something like N^H
where N is the number of entries in the paytable, and H is the number
of hands.

However, it does not grow anywhere near that fast. In fact, due to
the overlapping ways that exist to get some of the lower payout
totals, the growth is closer to linear.

I come up with the following estimates for the number of entries in
the equivalent paytables:

1 10
2 42
3 114
10 2011
50 32736
100 72736

While the last two numbers are pretty big, they are not that big. So
it may be possible to construct equivalent paytables, along with the
probabilities of getting each payout, with a reasonable effort. Does
this seem reasonable? Would this approach work for developing RoR
estimates for a multi-play game?

- John

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, Dan Paymar <Dan@...> wrote:

As far as I have been able to determine, no one has as yet come up
with a way to accurately calculate Risk of Ruin on multi-play
machines. For this reason, I have written a program to do a Monte
Carlo simulation of play on such machines. The current issue of Video
Poker Times, which was mailed out to subscribers this morning,
contains tables comparing play on single line, triple play and ten
play machines with the same per-line bet for common 9/6 Jacks or
Better.

The next two issues will provide similar tables for Double Bonus
Poker and Not So Ugly Ducks. If you are not a current subscriber, you
can order these three issues for only $20.00.

For possibly the first time, these simulations gives a practical
feeling for comparable risk.

Dan

--
Dan Paymar
Author of best selling book, "Video Poker - Optimum Play"
Editor/Publisher of VP newsletter "Video Poker Times"
Developer of VP analysis/trainer software "Optimum Video Poker"
Visit my web site at www.OptimumPlay.com

"Chance favors the prepared mind." -- Louis Pasteur

#5

Unfortunately my table did not come out very well in the post, so here
it is again, but formatted a little better

1.....10
2.....42
3.....114
10....2011
50....32736
100...72736

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "murphyfields" <jkludge@...> wrote:

Hello:

I have played with the idea of coming up with an equivalent paytable
for a multiline machine. At first I expected the complexity to grow
very quickly. For example, a single-line JoB has 10 entries, and I
figured a two-liner would have around 55, and that, as you added more
lines the complexity would increase exponentially, something like N^H
where N is the number of entries in the paytable, and H is the number
of hands.

However, it does not grow anywhere near that fast. In fact, due to
the overlapping ways that exist to get some of the lower payout
totals, the growth is closer to linear.

I come up with the following estimates for the number of entries in
the equivalent paytables:

1 10
2 42
3 114
10 2011
50 32736
100 72736

While the last two numbers are pretty big, they are not that big. So
it may be possible to construct equivalent paytables, along with the
probabilities of getting each payout, with a reasonable effort. Does
this seem reasonable? Would this approach work for developing RoR
estimates for a multi-play game?

- John

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, Dan Paymar <Dan@> wrote:
>
>
> As far as I have been able to determine, no one has as yet come up
> with a way to accurately calculate Risk of Ruin on multi-play
> machines. For this reason, I have written a program to do a Monte
> Carlo simulation of play on such machines. The current issue of Video
> Poker Times, which was mailed out to subscribers this morning,
> contains tables comparing play on single line, triple play and ten
> play machines with the same per-line bet for common 9/6 Jacks or
> Better.
>
> The next two issues will provide similar tables for Double Bonus
> Poker and Not So Ugly Ducks. If you are not a current subscriber, you
> can order these three issues for only $20.00.
>
> For possibly the first time, these simulations gives a practical
> feeling for comparable risk.
>
> Dan
>
> --
> Dan Paymar
> Author of best selling book, "Video Poker - Optimum Play"
> Editor/Publisher of VP newsletter "Video Poker Times"
> Developer of VP analysis/trainer software "Optimum Video Poker"
> Visit my web site at www.OptimumPlay.com
>
> "Chance favors the prepared mind." -- Louis Pasteur
>