vpFREE2 Forums

Changing Machines

#1

There has been a rather interesting discussion raging on videopoker.com forum on whether or not you should change machines if you are running bad. I thought you might get a kick out of my most recent reply. It's only my opinion and should not be taken too seriously. But it is a window into how I view the issue.

Copied From videopoker.com

···

___________________________________________________________________

Originally posted by brmcc74:
If they are getting tanked on a machine and decide to move, it is only an attempt to make a change to a negative pattern that has been occurring during that session(i.e=TIMING). Whats so wrong with changing machines?

FK-Reply
Well first we need to define exactly what we/I mean by changing machines.

Changing Machines = moving from one identical machine (for instance FPDW) to another identical machine, because the first one hasn't returned well. Same game type in the same casino during a single outing.

Now we can answer your question, "So what's wrong with changing machines?"

In eastern Africa an offshoot of the Bantu / Swahili tribe that worship the Siafu, an army ant from the genus Dorylus, gather together all the men in their village to make a week long trek with the tribal elder to retrieve the sacred rain-stones from their mountain temple. Towards the end of the yearly dry period, they believe it is necessary to pray using the sacred stones to bring the yearly monsoon. It's a nice ceremony and I'm sure a very interesting hike up and down the mountain. Of course I think "we the enlightened" can all agree that praying to some sacred river stones and allowing some sacred ants to bite us, isn't really what brings the yearly rainy season for the Siafu people.

All that time they spent getting painted up and trekking around dangerous mountains where there are frequent fatalities (god's sacrifice) could be spent gathering food during the lean times and helping their women prepare for the coming rains...which would have come regardless what they did or didn't do, or what god they prayed to--and in this case, how they prayed to him. The Siafu want to change the pattern of drought, one certainly can't blame them for that. Where one can find fault with their logic is in their choice of superstition over substance.

Time is precious and finite. Wasting time on pointless things that can't really influence the future is therefore a type of crime against nature--Especially if it diverts your attention/time away from things that could make a difference.

I was going to end this by correlating that true account of the Siafu to video poker, but I think I'd rather you did that yourself.

~FK

#2

Frank,

Do you believe that the random number generator by its very nature will provide what appear to be "streaks" of good hands - similar to how flipping a coin might result in getting "heads" twenty times in a row?
You certainly can't count on it, nor predict it, but it does happen.

In my mind changing machines gives an opportunity to perhaps find yourself in a "better" streak, random and piquant as that may be. If nothing else, for the recreational player it gives a sense of doing something about an unpleasant situation (a machine that is generating strings and strings of unlucky hands - a boring and unlucky 'streak').
Machines that are identical still do not give the same results in the short term......due to their inherently random nature....right? And as for the long term - I've never figured out just when that time ever comes......

Valerie

__________ Information from ESET NOD32 Antivirus, version of virus signature database 6079 (20110428) __________

The message was checked by ESET NOD32 Antivirus.

http://www.eset.com

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

#3

Well you asked what I thought, so here's what I think.

I believe that 10 hands played on 10 machines is the same as 100 hands played on 1 machine or 1 hand played on a 100 machines and any other combinations I've missed.

You stated, "If nothing else, for the recreational player it gives a sense of doing something about an unpleasant situation." Which was the entire point of my post.

For the Siafu their yearly trek for rain-stones makes them feel like they're doing something to change the weather. They aren't!!! They are in fact wasting their time, endangering their lives, and taking time away from tasks that would be truly productive, all trying to change something that's totally beyond their control--the weather.

I agree with you 100% that changing machines can give a person the sense that they are tying to do something about an unpleasant situation. But that's all it is "a sense", a felling, like a belief in magic rain-stones, or the placebo effect.

But it can be more dangerous than that if you start to look to machine changing as a fix for high losses. It's far more likely the root cause is inaccurate play.

Your time would be much better spent practicing on a VP trainer if your results are bad. It might be due to strategy errors.

Changing machines when you are running bad is almost always a tip of the iceberg issue that indicates other misunderstandings about randomness, and if nothing else, distracts you from things that do matter.

~You can't change the weather, but you can move to a nicer climate.

~FK

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Valerie Pollard" <vpollard@...> wrote: Frank,
Do you believe that the random number generator by its very nature will provide what appear to be "streaks" of good hands - similar to how flipping a coin might result in getting "heads" twenty times in a row?

You certainly can't count on it, nor predict it, but it does happen.

In my mind changing machines gives an opportunity to perhaps find yourself in a "better" streak, random and piquant as that may be. If nothing else, for the recreational player it gives a sense of doing something about an unpleasant situation (a machine that is generating strings and strings of unlucky hands - a boring and unlucky 'streak').

Machines that are identical still do not give the same results in the short term......due to their inherently random nature....right? And as for the long term - I've never figured out just when that time ever comes......

Valerie

···

__________ Information from ESET NOD32 Antivirus, version of virus signature database 6079 (20110428) __________

The message was checked by ESET NOD32 Antivirus.

http://www.eset.com

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

#4

Frank,

But I'm curious as to your response regarding "streaks" that appear due to randomness....and the fact that you *could* happenstance upon a happier streak on another machine, possibly. This is something I see as a factual possibility - though only that and as I said before, not anything that you could count on at all, or predict, or make happen.

Actually I do see the logic in what you are saying and agree with you. It's probably not that great a jump from simply changing machines to tapping the machine three times every time before you hit the draw button in the hopes that it will make things better. Or doing those weird things that I see people do where they are hitting all the buttons over and over again (holding and unholding cards) before they hit the draw button....Much like the Siaful making their trek.....trying to do "something" to make things better.

Regarding inaccurate play - I spent my time in the beginning studying vp trainers, bought the software and learned the accurate ways to play some of the games but as it turned out I made the choice to be a recreational player, strictly. But at least I do know something, lol, which probably helps along the way.
And as such (recreational) I find it unpleasant to stare at hand after hand as happens sometimes, when a machine gives you unplayable combinations of cards over and over and over again.....even though I know it's the nature of the game.

I enjoy reading these discussions with someone like Frank who can be so, well, professional about it, so objective, so realistic (I'm not being sarcastic). It does remind me when I'm out there playing to refrain from being too much otherwise, and to keep a sense of humor about the whole thing too, and to remember why I'm there.

Valerie

__________ Information from ESET NOD32 Antivirus, version of virus signature database 6079 (20110428) __________

The message was checked by ESET NOD32 Antivirus.

http://www.eset.com

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

#5

Thank you for your praise on our discussion, it's fun for me as well. I don't get out much.

You hit on most of the key points of streaks when you said, "not anything that you could count on at all, or predict, or make happen."

You missed one: or prove that they exist.

To say for sure that changing machines influenced your results, one would need to be able to go back in time, not change machines and see if anything altered. And if this was possible, we'd find out that in some cases changing machines did improve results, and in other trials staying put would actually have been better. It's the nature of randomness.

Try this experiment, every half-hour stand up and loudly say, "I'm changing machines" (just stay where you are, no need to exert yourself). Then keep mental records as though you really did change machines. You'll find that the vocalization and creation of a imaginary line of demarcation in your mind, has the exact same effect as getting up and really moving.

Sometimes your "new machine" will be a lot better than your "old machine". Other times it will be just as bad or worse. Almost as though it was "random".

"We fool ourselves so much we could do it for a living."
— Stephen King

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Valerie Pollard" <vpollard@...> wrote: Frank, But I'm curious as to your response regarding "streaks" that appear due to randomness....and the fact that you *could* happenstance upon a happier streak on another machine, possibly. This is something I see as a factual possibility - though only that and as I said before, not anything that you could count on at all, or predict, or make happen.

#6

Frank wrote,
"To say for sure that changing machines influenced your results, one would need to be able to go back in time, not change machines and see if anything altered. And if this was possible, we'd find out that in some cases changing machines did improve results, and in other trials staying put would actually have been better. It's the nature of randomness."

I've done that, and it is interesting to see the results.
Ha! But I have thought about that and that's the whole thing: we never can know what the other road would bring if we had chosen it. You are completely right. And since it really is random I grant that basically and realistically you are also right. There's no guarantee and mechanically the machines are identical.

In regard as to whether streaks exist - as the below quote states: Chance is lumpy....

1

Judgment of randomness

Overview

? Which of the strings THTHTTHHTH, and HTTTTHHTHH looks

more like it happened due to chance?

- People tend to think that random strings of events must be

'locally' random

. - Evidence: The presence of streaks alters judgments of

randomness (Olivola & Oppenheimer, 2008)

. When judging randomness of remembered string, when

streak was near beginning or end it was judged less

random than if streak was in middle.

Examples of the streakiness of chance

? Streaks of wins playing card games, gambling, answer "b" on

an exam, coincidental meetings of someone (fate?), others?

? Must recognize that..

- Chance is lumpy

Valerie

__________ Information from ESET NOD32 Antivirus, version of virus signature database 6079 (20110428) __________

The message was checked by ESET NOD32 Antivirus.

http://www.eset.com

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

#7

Frank wrote,
"Try this experiment, every half-hour stand up and loudly say, "I'm changing machines" (just stay where you are, no need to exert yourself). Then keep mental records as though you really did change machines. You'll find that the vocalization and creation of a imaginary line of demarcation in your mind, has the exact same effect as getting up and really moving.
Sometimes your "new machine" will be a lot better than your "old machine". Other times it will be just as bad or worse. Almost as though it was "random"."

I forgot to comment on how much I liked this, so funny.....I think I'm going to do it, just for the fun of it.
We'll see just how random it really is! (Only kidding)

Valerie

__________ Information from ESET NOD32 Antivirus, version of virus signature database 6079 (20110428) __________

The message was checked by ESET NOD32 Antivirus.

http://www.eset.com

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

#8

Correction: the tribe that worships the Siafu is called the Mofu-Wazan and lives in Cameroon, near the border with Nigeria.

The people of Nigeria sometimes call them the Siafu People, but that's not what they call themselves.

If you wish more info watch, "NOVA-The Masters of the Killer Ants".

Here's a clip: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=29kErsFdC5w

~FK

#9

I hit a royal a week ago. After getting a hand pay, doing the paperwork and congratulating myself on the masterful solitary high card hold I went back to play the same machine. Wife: "You are going to play the same machine?" Me: "Why not?" It never occurred to me to change machines. Stochasticity... Radiolabs piece on randomness is an amusing listen.
http://www.radiolab.org/2009/jun/15/

Chandler

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Valerie Pollard" <vpollard@...> wrote:

In regard as to whether streaks exist - as the below quote states: Chance is lumpy....

1

Judgment of randomness

Overview

? Which of the strings THTHTTHHTH, and HTTTTHHTHH looks

more like it happened due to chance?

- People tend to think that random strings of events must be

'locally' random

#10

Sometimes you come upon a "machine on drugs" as Jean Scott refers to
them. :wink:

We had one at the Reserve (how is that for dating our experience?).
Didn't get any large payoffs just a lot of frequent little ones. It
started dropping coins above the 1000 coin limit. The wife and I
alternated playing it. It was fun! I was surprised how long the streak
lasted. Just have to be at the right machine at the right time and on
the right side of the RNG.

Dennis
vp-connoisseur

Frank wrote:

Thank you for your praise on our discussion, it's fun for me as well. I don't get out much.

You hit on most of the key points of streaks when you said, "not anything that you could count on at all, or predict, or make happen."

You missed one: or prove that they exist.

To say for sure that changing machines influenced your results, one would need to be able to go back in time, not change machines and see if anything altered. And if this was possible, we'd find out that in some cases changing machines did improve results, and in other trials staying put would actually have been better. It's the nature of randomness.

Try this experiment, every half-hour stand up and loudly say, "I'm changing machines" (just stay where you are, no need to exert yourself). Then keep mental records as though you really did change machines. You'll find that the vocalization and creation of a imaginary line of demarcation in your mind, has the exact same effect as getting up and really moving.

Sometimes your "new machine" will be a lot better than your "old machine". Other times it will be just as bad or worse. Almost as though it was "random".

"We fool ourselves so much we could do it for a living."
-- Stephen King

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Valerie Pollard" <vpollard@...> wrote: Frank, But I'm curious as to your response regarding "streaks" that appear due to randomness....and the fact that you *could* happenstance upon a happier streak on another machine, possibly. This is something I see as a factual possibility - though only that and as I said before, not anything that you could count on at all, or predict, or make happen.

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

#11

I guess it really boils down to WHY are you changing machines. In my local
casino, I have about a half dozen "favorite" machines. In area 1, if I'm not
doing well on machine 1, I'll move to machine 2. Why, you might say. Well,
because I was playing DDB on one and am now going to play P'em on the other. Why
sit there and watch nothing hitting on DDB, when you can change the game and
maybe, therefore, your results.

In another area, I'll switch from DDB to DDStud. Its not a question of changing
because the randomnicity (is that a new word I just invented?) is changed by the
physical act of moving. Just the game I'll be playing.

BTW, my "favorites" are machines that are located in places I find conducive to
comfort and good concentration skills: generally in quieter areas, located
behind a pillar to prevent bumping, good air circulation, etc. They do have good
pay tables, but so do many other machines. I just prefer these certain few.

If I am on a favorite, and its paying like an ATM, I'll sit there forever.

Thank you for your praise on our discussion, it's fun for me as well. I don't
get out much.

You hit on most of the key points of streaks when you said, "not anything that
you could count on at all, or predict, or make happen."

You missed one: or prove that they exist.

To say for sure that changing machines influenced your results, one would need
to be able to go back in time, not change machines and see if anything altered.
And if this was possible, we'd find out that in some cases changing machines did
improve results, and in other trials staying put would actually have been
better. It's the nature of randomness.

Try this experiment, every half-hour stand up and loudly say, "I'm changing
machines" (just stay where you are, no need to exert yourself). Then keep mental
records as though you really did change machines. You'll find that the
vocalization and creation of a imaginary line of demarcation in your mind, has
the exact same effect as getting up and really moving.

Sometimes your "new machine" will be a lot better than your "old machine". Other
times it will be just as bad or worse. Almost as though it was "random".

"We fool ourselves so much we could do it for a living."
— Stephen King

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Valerie Pollard" <vpollard@...> wrote: Frank,
But I'm curious as to your response regarding "streaks" that appear due to
randomness....and the fact that you *could* happenstance upon a happier streak
on another machine, possibly. This is something I see as a factual possibility
- though only that and as I said before, not anything that you could count on at
all, or predict, or make happen.

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

#12

I hit a royal a week ago. After getting a hand pay, doing the paperwork and
congratulating myself on the masterful solitary high card hold I went back
to play the same machine. Wife: "You are going to play the same machine?"
Me: "Why not?" It never occurred to me to change machines.

----So, just out of curiosity, what happened when you went back and played
it then? :slight_smile:

Scot

#13

I lost $80. You don't think she was right, do you;-)

Chandler

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Scot Krause" <krauseinvegas@...> wrote:

I hit a royal a week ago. After getting a hand pay, doing the paperwork and
congratulating myself on the masterful solitary high card hold I went back
to play the same machine. Wife: "You are going to play the same machine?"
Me: "Why not?" It never occurred to me to change machines.

----So, just out of curiosity, what happened when you went back and played
it then? :slight_smile:

Scot

#14

I lost $80. You don't think she was right, do you;-)

Chandler

----Now a good "storyteller" would have hit another one---maybe even 2! :slight_smile:

Scot

#15

Try this experiment, every half-hour stand up and loudly say, "I'm changing
machines" (just stay where you are, no need to exert yourself). Then keep
mental records as though you really did change machines. You'll find that
the vocalization and creation of a imaginary line of demarcation in your
mind, has the exact same effect as getting up and really moving.

Sometimes your "new machine" will be a lot better than your "old machine".
Other times it will be just as bad or worse. Almost as though it was
"random".

----I tried it. I actually stood up and said it out loud. I think a few
people even heard me! It actually worked for me today in my favor! :slight_smile:

Scot

#16

I tried it as well today just for fun. 30-min and -$1,000 in my play I declared "machine change" and amazingly my "new machine" hit 5 four of a kinds and a straight flush in the next half hour.

Good thing "I moved" huh?

I wonder how many people will read this and think I actually moved machines due to losses?

~FK