Thanks Harry and GP,
Your answers were similar to what I told him. He wanted to
continue playing at the higher denomination for at least
a while and maybe longer, if necessary. He thinks if he has
modest success in the near future at his smaller denomination
he could not recoup his losses.
A couple of other facts. He felt it was a good promotion.
He had two days to meet the play requirement. He did half
the first day and then something happened that limited his
time the second day. In order to complete the play requirement,
he went to the higher denomination and completed play.
His plan was to earn $750 cash and for this he had to play
$50,000 through in two days. His game of choice was 9/6
JoB. He can play that game accurately.
His frustration was that he was up $225 after the first day
of the play requirement at his normal denomination. As luck
can go, he had a losing second day when an unexpected time
limitation forced him to increase denomination. He lost
$1,300 the second day, but got his $750.
He has the bankroll to permanently change denominations.
However, for his normal play expectations, he does not need
to play at a higher denomination. He felt there would be some
added casino benefit giving them a couple days of bigger than
normal play. To maintain his card level, he needs to select
a few days each year to increase his play and he thought this
was one of the days that he might used for that purpose.
Now he feels he is out about $325, after the earned cash back.
He feels he should stay at the higher denomination until he
recoups most of his $1,300 loss from the second day (less
maybe $250 expected losses). He plays accurately and knew
anything could happen playing $50,000 dollars. He thought
that maybe risking $250 in expected normal losses in 9/6 Jacks
was worth going after $750 in cash. He also thought he would
get back $85 minimum additional cash back, plus what ever
extra cash back and other benefits might be generated with his
new short term level of greater coin in.
Everything consider, I do not think he made a bad choice of
going for the $750. Now he wants to remain at the higher level
until he makes back most of his $1,300 second day loss. I told
him there is no guarantee this will ever happen. He believes
in the near future it would not be surprising that he has a good
day in order to make back much of this $1,300. He says he is
prepared to remain at the higher denomination until this happens.
It might need to be a permanent change if he is not lucky.
I think he will eventually go back to the lower denomination.
He says he normally does not need to risk more to get what he
usually wants. He feels he just had some short term bad luck
and does not want to not give himself time for some short term
good luck at the higher denomination.
Now that you know a few more fact, what would you do if you
were in his shoes?
Bob
···
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "vp_wiz" <harry.porter@...> wrote:
futrend wrote:
> What should a player do? The player normally plays at one
> denomination, but decides to go up in denomination mainly
> to meet a short term coin in goal?
>
> The player had poor results at the higher denomination play.
> Assume that the player has the bankroll to play the higher
> denomination and it is the identical game and pay schedule.
> Should the player remain at this higher denomination until
> his return at this higher denomination is closer to what
> has been his is previous returns at the lower denomination?
>
> This could come from moving for the short term from quarters
> to dollars, or $1 to $5. It would be difficult to drop back
> to the lower denomination and make back any losses that
> occurred on that temporary move up in denomination.
GP nails this pretty well. Here's my perspective:
Wins/losses at a higher denomination can't be considered comparable to swings experience at a lower denomination. Therefore, any net loss when discontinuing play at a higher denomination should be considered a permanent bankroll hit (until such time as the play is recommenced).
Continuing play at the higher denomination makes sense only if you have sufficient bankroll to support the risk. There can be circumstances under which short term promotions make higher denomination play feasible that otherwise is best avoided.
It should go without saying that future play offers no assurance that past losses will be reversed. Play motivated by a primary goal of chasing losses is a fool's errand.
