vpFREE2 Forums

chances for a royal

#1

Tomski wrote ...

Royal_____#_____chances 1 in:
Pat 4__________1
Draw 1_______936_____________47
Draw 2_____27492___________1081
Draw 3____204660__________16215
Draw 4____390828_________178365
Draw 5_____84360________1533939

Total Hands
  2598960

I think the Pat 4 entry should really be Pat 5, i.e dealt royal.

Also should the number for the Pat hand be 4 ( one for each suit) instead of i?

Finally, how did you get the number of occurrences for the royal? How do you separate hands with 2 RF cards from other hands which contain 2 RF cards but also have another play with a higher EV? For example, how do you know to classify Jd Qd 4c 4s 7h as an RF2 and Jd Qd Ks 10c 7s as a ST4? Is this in VPSM?

John Zaroff
Delphi Electronics and Safety
313-996-3682 (w)
313-378-2987 ( Cell)
3133782987@vtext.com ( text page)

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#2

John.G.Zaroff wrote:

Tomski wrote ...

> Royal_____#_____chances 1 in:
> Pat 4__________1
> Draw 1_______936_____________47
> Draw 2_____27492___________1081
> Draw 3____204660__________16215
> Draw 4____390828_________178365
> Draw 5_____84360________1533939
>
> Total Hands > 2598960

I think the Pat 4 entry should really be Pat 5, i.e dealt royal.

I read it as just "Pat" -- meaning a dealt Royal -- and the '4' belongs in the middle column and the '1' in the last column on the far-right.

Also should the number for the Pat hand be 4 ( one for each suit) instead of i?

It is; that is the middle number, which indicates the number of dealt Royals possible in a deck. The '1' is the chances of making a Royal from a dealt Royal are 1 in 1, as per the last column.

Finally, how did you get the number of occurrences for the royal? How do you separate hands with 2 RF cards from other hands which contain 2 RF cards but also have another play with a higher EV? For example, how do you know to classify Jd Qd 4c 4s 7h as an RF2 and Jd Qd Ks 10c 7s as a ST4? Is this in VPSM?

I've got to go somewhere right now, so I'll let someone else answer your last question. If not, I'll help you when I get back.

Cheers.

Bill Velek

#3

John.G.Zaroff wrote:

Tomski wrote ...

> Royal_____#_____chances 1 in:
> Pat 4__________1
> Draw 1_______936_____________47
> Draw 2_____27492___________1081
> Draw 3____204660__________16215
> Draw 4____390828_________178365
> Draw 5_____84360________1533939
>
> Total Hands > 2598960

snip

Finally, how did you get the number of occurrences for the royal? How do you separate hands with 2 RF cards from other hands which contain 2 RF cards but also have another play with a higher EV? For example, how do you know to classify Jd Qd 4c 4s 7h as an RF2 and Jd Qd Ks 10c 7s as a ST4? Is this in VPSM?

I never checked Tomski's numbers and just assumed that they are correct. I suspect that, because this game has been around long enough, that it has somehow been analyzed perhaps with a computer program to provide those particular figures. It is possible, however, to do it with brut force (pencil and paper) although a spread sheet will help immensely. You do need to have the correct order of strategy holds, though. This, too, can be compiled by brut force (if you have a few months to do it :wink: ... but it's a heck of a lot easier to use something like VPSM. I started working on OEJ's (One-Eyed Jacks) myself, because VPSM doesn't handle that game. I got pretty far along before I was distracted by other things and put it on the back burner; I haven't decided if or when I'll resume. It really is a lot of work, with limited application.

Anyway, to get back to our discussion, you need to take the total number of occurrences of each hand, and deduct from them the hands that are higher on the strategy chart. I don't really want to do a lot of math right here because I'm way behind in other email in regard to a project I'm working on (which I'll mention at the end, just in case someone here might be able to help). You also need to include all penalty card situations. The resulting number is the number of times that you would try for a Royal with that hand -- e.g., the number of 2-Royals that are held -- and because you have committed to that particular suit, we know that there is only one possible way to complete that particular Royal, and because we also know the number of cards you are discarding, we know what your probability is of hitting the Royal. Those are the numbers that Tomski listed, above, in the right-hand column.

MY ELECTRONICS/REFRIGERATION/HOMEBREWING PROJECT: I've been searching for a programmable digital thermostat with a probe that will extend through a 2" wall. It must have a low end of 34F/1C, and _ideally_ would be programmable in a way to automatically ... gradually lower the temperature. In other words, I want to be able to program it to automatically drop the temperature of my fermented by 2F/1C degrees per day, or thereabouts. I am considering a PID or a circuit made with a BasicStamp, but all indications that those would be more than I'd budget for this project, all things considered. I could make do with a programmable thermostat of the type used for heat/AC in a home -- by reprogramming it each day to drop in steps, instead of a constant gradual drop -- but they all seem to have a bottom end of just about 40F/5C, which is not low enough for lagering (which is what I need this for). This is for an ice-cooled conical fermenter that I have been using for ales, but want to try some lagers; the thermostat cycles a fan which circulates cold air from the ice compartment into the compartment where the conical is suspended. Thanks for any help.

Cheers.

Bill Velek