vpFREE2 Forums

Challenging the "max coin" wisdom

#1

Hi there! I'm new here, so here's a very quick introduction: I'm
Jean-Baptiste M. Queru, French male 30-something living in the San
Francisco area, with a background in mathematics and software (I'm a
software architect by trade). I'm interested gambling strategies that
are both mathematically sound and practical. Yes, Jean-Baptiste
(hyphenated) is my full first name, and yes it's a guy's name in
French - but you can call me JBQ.

I'd like to discuss and possibly challenge the wisdom of always
playing "max coin" in VP. I'll focus on JoB as it's the game that I
personally like, but most will apply to other games.

My ski trips to Reno exposed me to a lot of 9/6 JoB machines in all
denominations (to quote the vpFree data, Atlantis has denominations
all the way from 1c to $100). I found some strategies on the web,
trained a bit, and used my next opportunity in Reno to spend some time
playing on penny machines, which was lots of fun.

In a recent trip to Vegas (for which I was admittedly unprepared), I
was disappointed to not find much 9/6 JoB in low denominations (I know
that there are some, but you don't find them by chance walking on the
casino floors of Strip casinos between Flamingo ave and Tropicana
ave). I ended up playing a bit of 8/5 JoB but some health and sleep
problems somewhat ruined the trip so I didn't really miss 9/6 that
much.

So, as I wrote above, a number of factors made me consider whether the
common wisdom "always play the maximum coins even if you need to drop
to a lower coinage":

-Playing maximum coins creates a game with a very high volatility. As
an example, 5-coin 9/6 JoB has a variance of about 19.5, meaning that
a 5000-game day has a SD of over 312 (and we all know that 5000 games
really isn't much and that it's easy to be several SDs away from the
EV. The ER by comparison is 4977, i.e. an expected loss of 23.
Personally, the SD drives me away far more than the expected loss. By
comparison, playing 1-coin has a variance of about 5, meaning that the
same 5000-game day will have only have the SD - 156. The ER falls to
4918. I might feel more comfortable with a game that is worth -82 +/-
156 than with one that's worth -23 +/- 312, the extra 59 coins buy me
some peace of mind.

-Sometimes (and seemingly very often on the strip), dropping to a
lower coinage might mean dropping to a less favorable pay table.
Playing 1-coin 9/6 JoB has only a very slightly worse return than
5-coin 9/5 JoB or 5-coin 8/6 JoB, and is significantly better than
5-coin 8/5 JoB which is commonly found in many areas. Playing 1-coin
$1 9/6 is a far better idea than playing 5-coin 25c 8/5.

-Playing a higher denomination can be the key to the high-limit area,
where cocktails and other such floor comps are typically better, and
where you have typically more space, more attention from hosts and
less traffic.

-In the case of 9/6 JoB at least, the optimal strategy for 1-coin
seems to be simpler than for 5-coin (i.e. there seem to be fewer cases
of penalty cards), though in all honesty I haven't tried yet to
memorize the details of the discussion about 3 to a flush with 2 high
cards vs. only 2 high cards. It falls into 3 distinct patterms and so
shouldn't be that hard, and in my opinion easier than the discussion
about suited high card and T in 5-coin.

-Or, simply (at least in 9/6 JoB), the expected absolute loss of a
single game at 1-coin is lower than than that of 5-coin. If you're
already playing at the lowest denomination and want to make your
bankroll last, playing a single coin at a time is certainly worth
considering (after all, in absolute terms, 5-coin loses money 40%
faster than 1-coin and has a SD about 10 times bigger)

As a conclusion, I will say that I can find several reasons why
playing fewer coins than the maximum can be worth looking at. Some can
be proven to be mathematically better, some can't quite be quantified
as easily.

JBQ

PS: For those who are interested, I can post my strategy for 1-coin
9/6 JoB. I originally thought that such a strategy would be easy to
find online, but since all the research seems to focus on 5-coin I
didn't actually find it so I decided to research it. I didn't actually
prove my results to be correct, but so far they have been tested
accurate with about 360000 random deals.

#2

well yes if you are playing a negative expection game, then the
lower the amt you play the less your loss will be...however, i
believe most of us prefer positive games...

-- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, Jean-Baptiste Queru <jbqueru@g...>
wrote:

Hi there! I'm new here, so here's a very quick introduction: I'm
Jean-Baptiste M. Queru, French male 30-something living in the San
Francisco area, with a background in mathematics and software (I'm

a

software architect by trade). I'm interested gambling strategies

that

are both mathematically sound and practical. Yes, Jean-Baptiste
(hyphenated) is my full first name, and yes it's a guy's name in
French - but you can call me JBQ.

I'd like to discuss and possibly challenge the wisdom of always
playing "max coin" in VP. I'll focus on JoB as it's the game that I
personally like, but most will apply to other games.

My ski trips to Reno exposed me to a lot of 9/6 JoB machines in all
denominations (to quote the vpFree data, Atlantis has denominations
all the way from 1c to $100). I found some strategies on the web,
trained a bit, and used my next opportunity in Reno to spend some

time

playing on penny machines, which was lots of fun.

In a recent trip to Vegas (for which I was admittedly unprepared),

I

was disappointed to not find much 9/6 JoB in low denominations (I

know

that there are some, but you don't find them by chance walking on

the

casino floors of Strip casinos between Flamingo ave and Tropicana
ave). I ended up playing a bit of 8/5 JoB but some health and sleep
problems somewhat ruined the trip so I didn't really miss 9/6 that
much.

So, as I wrote above, a number of factors made me consider whether

the

common wisdom "always play the maximum coins even if you need to

drop

to a lower coinage":

-Playing maximum coins creates a game with a very high volatility.

As

an example, 5-coin 9/6 JoB has a variance of about 19.5, meaning

that

a 5000-game day has a SD of over 312 (and we all know that 5000

games

really isn't much and that it's easy to be several SDs away from

the

EV. The ER by comparison is 4977, i.e. an expected loss of 23.
Personally, the SD drives me away far more than the expected loss.

By

comparison, playing 1-coin has a variance of about 5, meaning that

the

same 5000-game day will have only have the SD - 156. The ER falls

to

4918. I might feel more comfortable with a game that is worth -82

+/-

156 than with one that's worth -23 +/- 312, the extra 59 coins buy

me

some peace of mind.

-Sometimes (and seemingly very often on the strip), dropping to a
lower coinage might mean dropping to a less favorable pay table.
Playing 1-coin 9/6 JoB has only a very slightly worse return than
5-coin 9/5 JoB or 5-coin 8/6 JoB, and is significantly better than
5-coin 8/5 JoB which is commonly found in many areas. Playing 1-

coin

$1 9/6 is a far better idea than playing 5-coin 25c 8/5.

-Playing a higher denomination can be the key to the high-limit

area,

where cocktails and other such floor comps are typically better,

and

where you have typically more space, more attention from hosts and
less traffic.

-In the case of 9/6 JoB at least, the optimal strategy for 1-coin
seems to be simpler than for 5-coin (i.e. there seem to be fewer

cases

of penalty cards), though in all honesty I haven't tried yet to
memorize the details of the discussion about 3 to a flush with 2

high

cards vs. only 2 high cards. It falls into 3 distinct patterms and

so

shouldn't be that hard, and in my opinion easier than the

discussion

about suited high card and T in 5-coin.

-Or, simply (at least in 9/6 JoB), the expected absolute loss of a
single game at 1-coin is lower than than that of 5-coin. If you're
already playing at the lowest denomination and want to make your
bankroll last, playing a single coin at a time is certainly worth
considering (after all, in absolute terms, 5-coin loses money 40%
faster than 1-coin and has a SD about 10 times bigger)

As a conclusion, I will say that I can find several reasons why
playing fewer coins than the maximum can be worth looking at. Some

can

be proven to be mathematically better, some can't quite be

quantified

as easily.

JBQ

PS: For those who are interested, I can post my strategy for 1-coin
9/6 JoB. I originally thought that such a strategy would be easy to
find online, but since all the research seems to focus on 5-coin I
didn't actually find it so I decided to research it. I didn't

actually

···

prove my results to be correct, but so far they have been tested
accurate with about 360000 random deals.

#3

If and when you find them. I think this was the whole point of the posting.

Many times you are in a situation or a location where the bug bites and positive games are
not available. This gives us the chance to play for the fun of it and yet minimize the
losses.

We have gone through this a million times.

.....bl

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "irdd3000" <irdd@n...> wrote:

well yes if you are playing a negative expection game, then the
lower the amt you play the less your loss will be...however, i
believe most of us prefer positive games...

#4

Well, your rule of thumb isn't necessarily true. In "standard" 9/6 JoB
(250RF @1-4 coin, 800RF @5-coin), the absolute expected loss is higher
with 2-4 coins than with 5 coins, but the absolute SD remains
significantly lower with 2-4 coins than with 5 coins. I personally
find little reason to play anything other than 1 or 5 coins, but
someone might (e.g. to reach a comp level while trying to minimize
volatility).

I won't get into deep detail, but personally I'm not a full-time VPer
(writing software pays a lot more), and for the number of hands I can
afford to find time to play the game has such a high volatility that
it boils down to whether I hit a RF or not - so from my point it's
only a form of lottery in which the ER is very high.

As a tourist, 10000 hands of 25c FPDW in a week-end (a very high
number as I'm a slow player) would yield an average of $95. Even if I
count on a generous 1% in comps ($125), that's still not enough money
to cover transportation+room+food+tips as far as I'm concerned.

Even for a dedicated full timer, I can hardly imagine playing more
than 3 million hands of 25c FPDW a year (about 10000 hands per day 6
days a week), at which point the average win is about $28500 before
taxes and without benefits, and the standard deviation is still
$11000.

I understand that if you value a positive absolute ER infinitely more
than everything else, hunting for positive machines is a must-do, and
I respect that. A tourist however might have other constraints that
prevent him from doing just that, yet might also want to not be a
sucker and play in conditions that give him the bext experience.

JBQ

···

On 6/13/05, irdd3000 <irdd@netzero.net> wrote:

well yes if you are playing a negative expection game, then the
lower the amt you play the less your loss will be...however, i
believe most of us prefer positive games...

#5

<< Jean-Baptiste

(hyphenated) is my full first name, and yes it's a
guy's name in>>

Does this mean Jean Scott is a guy too? I've met her.
She looks like a girl who likes FITR but I might be
wrong.

I'm all for changing the name of this list to
vpMODERATED to keep mister short coin from posting
this crap with brand new names every week.
JT

···

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#6

<<For those who are interested, I can post my strategy for 1-coin
9/6 JoB. I originally thought that such a strategy would be easy to
find online, but since all the research seems to focus on 5-coin I
didn't actually find it so I decided to research it. I didn't actually
prove my results to be correct, but so far they have been tested
accurate with about 360000 random deals.>>

The Frugal VP software (you can see it at my Web site below) has the capability to generate a strategy for 1-4 coins as well as for full coin. This is in addition to its tutor function.

I, and other authors, have discussed the short coin concept often in the past. Playing one coin on quarter 9/6 Job is definitely better - as far as EV is concerned - than full--coin nickel 8/5, for example. This is a simple math concept. However, VP is more than math for many people. And the psychological pain many people would have after hitting a one-coin royal is "too much to bear." But if someone is prepared for the psychological aspect, then there is no question that playing one-coin is sometimes a suitable option.

···

________________________________________
Jean $�ott - http://www.FrugalGambler.biz
  for VP software and strategy cards.
  NEW - Blackjack Strategy Cards +
              Updated Second Edition of
             "The Frugal Gambler."

#7

Thanks for the warm welcome, much appreciated :slight_smile:

Well, I guess that since you opened the hostilities I can be rude too.
At least my parents were creative enough to give me a real name
instead of having to use a number. There, now we're even, and we're
both idiots and entirely off-topic, and I'm gonna be banned for this.
Such is life, I guess.

And since I'm not the "mister short coin" you're referring to (since I
had never posted here before and since I haven't changed my name), I
guess that you'll have two of us on your hands now. No, I'm joking, I
don't intend to be an annoyance, and if I already am one I apologize
for the inconvenience. This is the Internet after all, the land where
horses get beaten after they die.

Regards,
JBQ (temporary short-coin dead-horse-beater).

···

On 6/13/05, JT Hughes_iii <jt_hughes_iii@yahoo.com> wrote:

I'm all for changing the name of this list to
vpMODERATED to keep mister short coin from posting
this crap with brand new names every week.

#8

Most LOGICAL discussions on gambling focus on mathematics.
Mathematically, it is always best to play maximum coin, which makes the
player eligible for an 800 for 1 (or possibly progressive) Royal Flush
payout.

However, you seem to be focused on EMOTIONAL aspects of gambling. If
you're not going to play maximum coin (ie. you're just "playing for
fun"), then you should play MINIMUM coin. There is no advantage to
playing 2 coins over 1 coin. Also, your bankroll will last longer.
Don't forget to bring a bankroll appropriate for the game you are
playing. If you are a $5 blackjack player who buys in for $100, then
you will need to buy on for $100 on a $1 VP machine, since you will be
betting $5/hand. If you're playing a "triple play" $1 machine, then buy
in for at least $300, since you will be betting $15 at a time. BTW,
there are still some full pay Jacks or Better machines in Las Vegas,
you just have to be willing to wager AT LEAST $5 at a time.

I hope this helps. Replies appreciated.

#9

PLEASE, PLEASE, PLEASE keep things impersonal
and objective when you disagree with a post.

vpFREE Administrator

···

On 13 Jun 2005 at 9:34, JT Hughes_iii wrote:

I'm all for changing the name of this list to
vpMODERATED to keep mister short coin from posting
this crap with brand new names every week. JT

#10

Rudeness is never appropriate or acceptable on vpFREE. Take it
to FREEvpFREE <http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FREEvpFREE/>,
or private email if you must be rude.

vpFREE Administrator

···

On 13 Jun 2005 at 10:05, Jean-Baptiste Queru wrote:

Well, I guess that since you opened the hostilities I can be rude too.

#11

Yes, I am a girl - and I promote being nice at all times!

···

________________________________________
Jean $�ott - http://www.FrugalGambler.biz
  for VP software and strategy cards.
  NEW - Blackjack Strategy Cards +
              Updated Second Edition of
             "The Frugal Gambler."

#12

Or gamble off the strip.

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "djmcosmo" <djmcosmo@y...> wrote:

BTW,
there are still some full pay Jacks or Better machines in Las Vegas,
you just have to be willing to wager AT LEAST $5 at a time.

#13

The "common wisdom" that I've noted is to do whatever "floats
your boat" when deciding which video poker games to play and
how you play them. Playing maximum coin, or not, should be a
function of one's individual goals and preferences.

Players who have a goal of maximizing their ER/EV and don't
play negative situations, will play maximum coin, subject to
bankroll and comfort considerations.

vpFREE Administrator

···

On 12 Jun 2005 at 23:38, Jean-Baptiste Queru wrote:

I'd like to discuss and possibly challenge the wisdom of always
playing "max coin" in VP ...

... So, as I wrote above, a number of factors made me consider
whether the common wisdom "always play the maximum coins
even if you need to drop to a lower coinage" ...

#14

My wife plays one coin most of the time. She just likes playing
next to me but doesn't like to risk a lot of money. She'll play $20
for hours and only be a couple of bucks behind or ahead.

Once she hit about 6 royals on a penny 50 play machine in Lake
Tahoe. The machine locked up and the attendant had to give her a
hand pay of about $13. Very strange but I guess the game was
programed to lock up on any royal.

Anyway, I always thought if you were going to play one coin at least
play something with a good secondary jackpot like FPDW or DDB. To
each his own though. My wife usually plays regular JOB. Go figure.

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Jean Scott" <QueenofComps@f...>
wrote:

<<For those who are interested, I can post my strategy for 1-coin
9/6 JoB. I originally thought that such a strategy would be easy to
find online, but since all the research seems to focus on 5-coin I
didn't actually find it so I decided to research it. I didn't

actually

prove my results to be correct, but so far they have been tested
accurate with about 360000 random deals.>>

The Frugal VP software (you can see it at my Web site below) has

the

capability to generate a strategy for 1-4 coins as well as for

full coin.

This is in addition to its tutor function.

I, and other authors, have discussed the short coin concept often

in the

past. Playing one coin on quarter 9/6 Job is definitely better -

as far as

EV is concerned - than full--coin nickel 8/5, for example. This

is a simple

math concept. However, VP is more than math for many people. And

the

psychological pain many people would have after hitting a one-coin

royal is

"too much to bear." But if someone is prepared for the

psychological

aspect, then there is no question that playing one-coin is

sometimes a

···

suitable option.
________________________________________
Jean $¢ott - http://www.FrugalGambler.biz
  for VP software and strategy cards.
  NEW - Blackjack Strategy Cards +
              Updated Second Edition of
             "The Frugal Gambler."

#15

Jean Scott wrote: "The Frugal VP software (you can see it at my Web
site below) has the capability to generate a strategy for 1-4 coins as
well as for full coin."

Well, I guess that I'm even more frugal than that and that I preferred
to spend a few hours writing code that'd analyze the strategy rather
than paying for software that would. Plus, writing the code was a lot
of fun (well, and I didn't have anything else to do).

Jean Scott also wrote: "But if someone is prepared for the
psychological aspect, then there is no question that playing one-coin
is sometimes a suitable option."

I play no-limit texas hold'em tournaments. I actually play pretty
tight, so I see lots of flops that would have matched my hole cards,
and that doesn't faze me. As far as I have experienced it, VP is a
walk in the park by comparison. I can take the time to carefully
analyze a situation, make a conscious decision about it, play it if I
think it's good, and when I hit a RF without having played full-coin I
won't have a problem because I'll know I'll have made a conscious
decision to play it that way.

RWH wrote: "playing a 'rotating' betting strategy to save a little money on the
last night in town (bet one, next hand bet two, etc.)."

Interesting strategy (I assume that you mean 1-2-3-4-5-1-2-3-4-5). I'm
too lazy to think about it in detail, but what is the advantage of
such a strategy against playing 1-5-1-5-1-5-1-5-1-5?

RWH also wrote: "As my brother told me last winter, 'If you're so
worried about risking a little money, go back to the damn room and
play VP on your computer'."

Well, it depends what you call "risking" money. For me the expected
loss is, well, expected. It's just the money that I pay to be in a
casino, enjoy the atmosphere, the service, the cocktails. The volatile
aspect of the game is the risk part, and given two otherwise identical
scenarios I'll personally always pick the one that minimizes the
volatility. E.g. all else being equal I'll play 100-play pennies
rather than 1-play dollars, even if I know that on a RF I'll make far
less money, even if I know that I'm less likely to come out positive.

djmcosmo wrote: "Mathematically, it is always best to play maximum
coin, which makes the player eligible for an 800 for 1 (or possibly
progressive) Royal Flush payout."

Sure. All else being equal, I'll play 5-coin on a nickel machine
rather than 1-coin on a quarter machine, there's no doubt about it.

djmcosmo also wrote: "However, you seem to be focused on EMOTIONAL
aspects of gambling."

I think that I'd prefer to use the work "intangible", but I think that
we are talking about the same thing. Playing in a quiet area; playing
next to the stage where a band is playing music I like; Playing in a
non-smoking area; Playing in a high-limit area; Playing a game I'm
comfortable of confident with; Playing in an area with a nice view;
Playing a game, denomination, coinage and strategy for which I know
that I don't need to worry about my bankroll for the duration of the
trip; all those are intangible elements which I do take into account
when I decide which game I want to play. As a tourist with a
reasonable financial power, I'm willing to take a higher expected loss
if it buys me any (or all) of the above. As far as I'm concerned a
trip to Reno or LV already carries a big cost on its own, typically
counted in hundreds of dollars per day, and the little bits of extra
expected loss that buy me a more pleasant trip are often worth it.

hansjurgent wrote: "Anyway, I always thought if you were going to play
one coin at least
play something with a good secondary jackpot like FPDW or DDB."

Very interesting. I certainly hadn't thought of it. A quick check
shows that 1-coin FPDW has about the same return as 5-coin 9/6 JoB,
with the added benefit of a lower variance. That being said, FPDW
isn't quite as common as 9/6 JoB, and doesn't always offer the same
intangible benefits that I care about as 9/6 JoB sometimes might.

JBQ

#16

Hey Jean-Baptise,

It's nice to see a fresh voice here. Welcome.

FWIW, I don't question for a moment that your play style is very
appropriate for you and accomodates your play goals well.

Of course, frankly, there's no need to "challenge the max-coin wisdom"
(as you put it). I think most accept that no wisdom is hard and fast
and there'll always be exceptional circumstances that warrant straying
from that guidance.

For that matter, in at least one case, I've opted for short-coin play
because it was optimal. I, and most others here, are hardly dogmatic
in our play. We largely believe in playing to our maximum advantage.
But there's more than one standard by which that can be measured.

But I have no doubt that you grasp that, more often than not,
short-coin play is indicative of a player who may not be sufficiently
bankrolled for their desired play and/or lacks the discipline that is
warranted for a truly satisfying experience. In your case I have no
concern that this is a hazard for you.

I look forward to your contributions. I have hopes that you'll have
cause to chime in on any number of topics. Just be advised that once
your case is stated, excessively pressing it can be wearying. (Not
saying that this has been the case here, yet ... just meant as a
constructive "word in the ear".)

- Harry

#17

All they had was the short pay Gamblers Bonus machines
at the bar top.

The meal I and two ladies had was a disappointment
also. The waitress (very experienced with a care worn
badge) tried to charge us for the appetizers on the
"Complete Dinner Four Two" Ellis Island coupon. I told
her to call Ellis Island and ask to speak to, Freddy
From Mexico, the main evening host. She said "Oh,
that's ok I'll do it if you say it's included" On my
Hold'em software it would say about her initial move,
"This is a bluff or simi-bluff" I used to have trouble
with Ellis Island servers trying to get money for
items as cash. One server got fired recently for
changing a tip box zero to an eight on a credit card
bill in order for it to become "$18" instead of "$10"

The menu at the Cannery is basically Ellis Island fare
with more of a wine list and daily specials. BTW,

I'm speaking about the Village Pub at Pecos and
Flamingo (Cannery sign on outside of building)
JT

···

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#18

The location that you visited DOES have the 100.35% version. My wife
and I played them yesterday.
They ALSO have short pay.
Full pay has 3 for a flush and 10 for a str flush.

···

On Tue, 14 Jun 2005 08:43:32 -0700 (PDT), you wrote:

All they had was the short pay Gamblers Bonus machines
at the bar top.

The meal I and two ladies had was a disappointment
also. The waitress (very experienced with a care worn
badge) tried to charge us for the appetizers on the
"Complete Dinner Four Two" Ellis Island coupon. I told
her to call Ellis Island and ask to speak to, Freddy
From Mexico, the main evening host. She said "Oh,
that's ok I'll do it if you say it's included" On my
Hold'em software it would say about her initial move,
"This is a bluff or simi-bluff" I used to have trouble
with Ellis Island servers trying to get money for
items as cash. One server got fired recently for
changing a tip box zero to an eight on a credit card
bill in order for it to become "$18" instead of "$10"

The menu at the Cannery is basically Ellis Island fare
with more of a wine list and daily specials. BTW,

I'm speaking about the Village Pub at Pecos and
Flamingo (Cannery sign on outside of building)
JT

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#19

We largely believe in playing to our maximum advantage.

I think everyone does, within the limits of what's available to play
on and the strengh of one's desire to play. Sometimes the notion of
"maximum advantage" can turn into an ugly "minimum disadvantage",
which is one of the situations where playing short-coin can be
justified (assuming of course that one even wants to play in such
conditions, which is probably not the case of most advantage players).

more often than not,
short-coin play is indicative of a player who may not be sufficiently
bankrolled for their desired play [...].

Agreed.

I look forward to your contributions.

Well, if they are all as bad as what I've written today you'll quickly
look forward to me not contributing any longer.

Just be advised that once
your case is stated, excessively pressing it can be wearying.

I don't intend to unnecessarily push any discussion beyond the point
where it's not constructive any longer. On any civilized forum people
respect one another's opinions, and I'm pretty sure that this is at
least as civilized as most other places I've been involved in (I
wouldn't have joined otherwise).

Regards,
JBQ