vpFREE2 Forums

Casino Patronage Disclaimer

#1

Yes, and I believe most members play with positive expectations.

···

-----Original Message-----
From: LoungeLizard <llounge@hotmail.com>
To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com <vpFREE@yahoogroups.com>
Date: Friday, April 04, 2003 11:03 AM
Subject: [vpFREE] Re: Casino Patronage Disclaimer

That's a point I haven't seen made, and its a good one. I find it
doubtful that the combined play of this Internet group has a
positive expectation. Certainly if you combine the entire action of
the group - the play of the players in the group, the play of others
that accompany the players in the group, and spending in the casino
by all, the overall expectation is negative.

The one point you make that's impossible to achieve is players
categorizing their own skills. In my view, and its only an opinion
that I can't verify, is that most players that learn a bit, such as
which games have better paytables and some basic strategy points,
quickly reach a point where they think they are better players than
they really are. Ironically, the little learning they have achieved
actually has an adverse effect, as they go from playing chump change
for fun, to playing serious money at a higher, albeit still
negative, percentage EV. The danger is that the increased action
swamps the gain in percentage EV, such that the overall dollar
expectation is more negative than when they knew nothing.

How about conducting a poll with two questions: (1) Do you believe
that you play with a positive or negative expectation, and (2) Do
you believe that most members of vpFREE play with a positive or
negative expectation?

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "vp_FREE" <vpFREE@L...> wrote:

                  Casino Patronage Disclaimer
  
As a general rule, casinos make changes in their video poker
inventory hoping/expecting that the changes will enhance the

casino's

bottom line.

Winning/advantage video poker players who play positive situations

in

a casino decrease that casino's bottom line.

Most other paronage tends to increase a casino's bottom line.

If a video poker player(s) wishes to send a message to a

particular

casino whose actions have displeased the player(s), the player(s)
should categorize their own skills and intended forms of patronage
and act accordingly.

vpFREE Administrator

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[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

#2

That's a point I haven't seen made, and its a good one. I find it
doubtful that the combined play of this Internet group has a
positive expectation. Certainly if you combine the entire action of
the group - the play of the players in the group, the play of others
that accompany the players in the group, and spending in the casino
by all, the overall expectation is negative.

Ironically, the little learning they have achieved
actually has an adverse effect, as they go from playing chump change
for fun, to playing serious money at a higher, albeit still
negative, percentage EV. The danger is that the increased action
swamps the gain in percentage EV, such that the overall dollar
expectation is more negative than when they knew nothing.

I agree that the sum of all casino action from VPFree members and
their associates is with a negative expectation. However, I believe
that most of the VP play by list members is positive, especially if
you add in the value of comps. I do not think mamy list members
play poorly. They might not konw all the rules for AQxy2 on FPDW,
but they still play within 0.2% of perfect strategy

Furthermore, those who wager a large amound of money over the course
of a year will be the ones who have the highest ER. There are some
exceptions of course, but not many.

QZ

#3

However, I believe

that most of the VP play by list members is positive, especially if
you add in the value of comps. I do not think mamy list members
play poorly. They might not konw all the rules for AQxy2 on FPDW,
but they still play within 0.2% of perfect strategy

That's something that's interesting to speculate about, but there's
no way to really know. I was initially afraid that my post might be
intended as a put-down of the list, and that's not my intent. I
just want people to reflect on where they stand and how much they
should be betting. I've read your posts, and your obviously someone
who knows what their doing and plays positive games within their
bankroll. I say its obvious because your posts reflect a full
understanding of the process. A number of posters, from reading
their posts it is clear that they don't fully understand (e.g.,
making general observations based on limited actual results), but
don't realize that they don't fully understand. Of that group,
those that wager minor amounts (relative to their situation in life)
will be just fine. On the other hand, those in that group that
wager serious money will meet with a big downfall somewhere down the
line, because what they see is the actual results, not the
underlying expected results. They will then make decisions based on
the current pattern of actual results, which will eventually be very
costly. The most common mistakes are overbetting a bankroll on
marginal plays when there's been a recent good run, or the
opposiite, chasing losses by overbetting a bankroll on marginal
plays.