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Casino loses money on vp

#1

Brian wrote: It's been at least five years since IGT changed their machines so the remaining 47 cards continue "shuffling" until you hit DRAW. Hold different cards, get different cards. Therefore, you cannot know what you would have ended up with if you had held the pair of fours.

I don't believe this is correct. Whether or not the cards are being shuffled until you hit the draw button is not the same as not knowing what the cards would have been after the draw. At the time you hit the draw button, the cards are fixed --- whether they had been fixed for some time (which USED to be the way it was done) or whether they were chosen in the last fraction of a nanosecond (which is the way it's done currently).

In FPDW, for example, if you are dealt 44559, the correct play is to hold either the fours or the fives, not both. But whichever pair you hold, you'll still get the same three cards on the redraw --- assuming you hit the button at the same time in either case.

Those of you who like to experience emotional anguish when you hold the fours and draw a pair of fives have no reason to despair. You can STILL feel just as much emotional anguish as you did before IGT changed its method of dealing.

Bob Dancer

#2

<<But whichever pair you hold, you'll still get the same three cards on the redraw --- assuming you hit the button at the same time in either case.>>

That's the whole point. As fast as the cards are shuffling, it is unlikely - probably highly improbable - that you would choose one hold over another and hit the "Draw" button at EXACTLY the same time. In your example, you would use slightly different arm/finger movements to hold one pair or the other. I stick with Brian on this point.

···

________________
Jean $¢ott
The new " FRUGAL VIDEO POKER
SCOUTING GUIDE" and other frugal
products are available at my Web site,
http://queenofcomps.com/.

#3

Bob,

Since we finally got you to understand (so we thought) how the machines work you have shown many times in your writing that you really don't understand. So let me explain it to you.

When you hit the Deal button the RNG is stopped in its cycling and picks a number between 1 and 52, corresponding to a card in the deck. It then picks another number between 1 and 52, checks to see that the number has not previously been selected and displays the second card. It continues until it has 5 cards in total, displayed.

The RNG then continues to cycle, picking numbers between 1 and 52 and ignoring them. When the Draw button is pressed (and at least 1 card is drawn) the next number is checked to see if it is the same as any of the first 5 picked. If not this is the first draw cards. If only 1 card was drawn the RNG goes back into continuously cycling mode. If not, the next number is used for the 2nd draw card. This continues until the final draw card is displayed.

Since cycle times are very, very fast if you select different cards -- even if either selection is 2 cards like in FPDW -- there is a probability of 1 in 52 that the same first draw card will come up. The second card is 1 in (52 * 52), the third is 1 in (52 * 52 * 52). And so on. (Purists, go away. I'm looking at orders of magnitude, not precision).

Yes, it is possible that holding different cards would have yielded the same result. But it is very unlikely that even the first draw card would be the same and extremely unlikely that any additional ones would be. And, of course, there is no way to ever know.

The last time (over a year ago) I wrote you privately to correct an article you published you responded with a rambling answer that showed you did not understand what is actually happening, as this post also shows. I hope that you now understand the process and will give correct information in the future.

Thanks,

Bill

···

At 12:03 PM 10/22/2007, you wrote:

Brian wrote: It's been at least five years since IGT changed their machines so the remaining 47 cards continue "shuffling" until you hit DRAW. Hold different cards, get different cards. Therefore, you cannot know what you would have ended up with if you had held the pair of fours.

I don't believe this is correct. Whether or not the cards are being shuffled until you hit the draw button is not the same as not knowing what the cards would have been after the draw. At the time you hit the draw button, the cards are fixed --- whether they had been fixed for some time (which USED to be the way it was done) or whether they were chosen in the last fraction of a nanosecond (which is the way it's done currently).

In FPDW, for example, if you are dealt 44559, the correct play is to hold either the fours or the fives, not both. But whichever pair you hold, you'll still get the same three cards on the redraw --- assuming you hit the button at the same time in either case.

Those of you who like to experience emotional anguish when you hold the fours and draw a pair of fives have no reason to despair. You can STILL feel just as much emotional anguish as you did before IGT changed its method of dealing.

Bob Dancer

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#4

Bill Coleman wrote:

The last time (over a year ago) I wrote you privately to correct an
article you published you responded with a rambling answer that
showed you did not understand what is actually happening, as this
post also shows. I hope that you now understand the process and will
give correct information in the future.

Boy ... I thought my 5th grade teacher was tough ... :wink:

#5

Boy ... I thought my 5th grade teacher was tough ... :wink:

Good one, Harry.

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--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Harry Porter" <harry.porter@...> wrote:

#6

Brian wrote: It's been at least five years since IGT changed their

machines so the remaining 47 cards continue "shuffling" until you hit
DRAW. Hold different cards, get different cards. Therefore, you
cannot know what you would have ended up with if you had held the
pair of fours.

I don't believe this is correct. Whether or not the cards are being

shuffled until you hit the draw button is not the same as not knowing
what the cards would have been after the draw. At the time you hit
the draw button, the cards are fixed --- whether they had been fixed
for some time (which USED to be the way it was done) or whether they
were chosen in the last fraction of a nanosecond (which is the way
it's done currently).

In FPDW, for example, if you are dealt 44559, the correct play is

to hold either the fours or the fives, not both. But whichever pair
you hold, you'll still get the same three cards on the redraw ---
assuming you hit the button at the same time in either case.

Those of you who like to experience emotional anguish when you hold

the fours and draw a pair of fives have no reason to despair. You can
STILL feel just as much emotional anguish as you did before IGT
changed its method of dealing.

Bob Dancer

I think the chances of hitting the button at the same time whether
holding the fours or the fives is somewhere between slim and none.

This stuff reminds me of poker players who leave the table for a few
minutes then return to see that the bad beat has been hit. Some
think that if they would have been dealt in they would have gotten a
piece of the money. Well, no they wouldn't and neither would anyone
one else in the hand. The cards would have been dealt in a different
order.

Scenario:

You have lots of tickets in the drum for the big drawing. You show
up at drawing time and stand just a few feet from the tank. The
Master of Ceremonies opens the drum. The designated ticket puller is
walking up to the drum. Just at that moment you decide to cross the
path to the other side of the drum. As you cross over the designated
ticket puller stops dead in their tracks as you are in their way. As
soon as you clear out of the way the ticket puller procedes to the
drum and pulls out the winning ticket.

Question:

Would the ticket puller have pulled out the exact same ticket had
you not crossed in front of them?

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, bob.dancer@... wrote:

#7

Harry Porter wrote:

Boy ... I thought my 5th grade teacher was tough ... :wink:

Was it Jean?

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#8

Scenario:

You have lots of tickets in the drum for the big drawing. You show
up at drawing time and stand just a few feet from the tank. The
Master of Ceremonies opens the drum. The designated ticket puller

is

walking up to the drum. Just at that moment you decide to cross

the

path to the other side of the drum. As you cross over the

designated

ticket puller stops dead in their tracks as you are in their way.

As

soon as you clear out of the way the ticket puller procedes to the
drum and pulls out the winning ticket.

Question:

Would the ticket puller have pulled out the exact same ticket had
you not crossed in front of them?

I made the above post from the kiosk at the hotel lobby of the
Rainbow Casino in Wendover, Nevada. Upon leaving the kiosk, I headed
back into the casino. I spied my buddy, Jay, at the Espresso stand.
I walked up and said:

"Jay, have you seen Al this morning?
"He's playing deuces somewhere."
"Thanks, I know the spot he'll be at."

I Headed on over and there was Al "going off" on 50c triple-play
NSUD.

"Son, I'm gonna have to take my belt off to you. This is gonna hurt
me worse than it hurts you."

"Go ahead" Al said, "I deserve it."

We call a play like NSUD without CB or some promotion a "go off play"
because we know we're not supposed to be playing it. We get .8% in
comp and giftshop dollars but there is 100% game available with very
low variance that is the one that is supposed to be played.

"So did you tag the 2-5 no-limit last night?" I ask.
"Yeah, I tagged it for $3600"
"Okay, I guess you can go off for a couple of hundred....and while
you are at it I guess I can go off for a couple of hundred too." I'm
not known for doing this but, since Al is in town for a few days, I
guess it will be alright.

I slapped a hundred into the machine next to Al's and about 5 hands
in I was dealt the Ah-Jh-Qh-Kh. "I got the big draw, Al" I said as I
made the hold. Al looked over. I hit the draw button and the Ten of
Hearts jumped out on the second line.

Question:

If I hadn't seen Jay at the Espresso Stand who told me Al was playing
deuces would I be $2000 poorer right now?

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "mickeycrimm" <mickeycrimm@...> wrote:

#9

I use this kind of thinking when we are stuck in traffic and get to a casino later than we had planned and then hit a royal. "See, we wouldn't have hit this royal if we hadn't been stuck in traffic."

Then the more sensible side of me answers myself, "Well, if I hadn't got stuck in traffic, I might have gotten 2 royals."

No matter how long you have been gambling - we've been doing it for over 22 years now - one's human emotional side is still prone to play the "If" game even though your brain knows that it is not a math/scientific concept you can control and is a "waste of time."

···

________________
Jean $�ott
The new " FRUGAL VIDEO POKER
SCOUTING GUIDE" and other frugal
products are available at my Web site,
http://queenofcomps.com/.