vpFREE2 Forums

Can this game be beat?

#1

Question?

   What if you saw this video poker game in a casino? Would you play
it? What kind of bankroll would you need? Is this a positive game?

                     DOUBLE BONUS

                       4000 RF
                       4000 SF
                       4000 ACES
                       1500 2-3-4
                        125 5-K
                          5 FH
                          5 FL
                          5 ST
                          5 (3)
                          5 2-P
                          5 J'S

   "Gambling is not about how well you play the games. It's really
about how well you handle your money."
                     --VP Pappy

#2

Yes, I would like to play on that machine. I have run the analysis in
WinPoker and its return is 103.6%, so I have a feeling manufacturers
won't be putting this one out soon, nor casinos getting it if it was
available. The question of bankroll is a headache, as the variance of
the machine is 374. I'll leave the answer to that question to someone
else.

E.

"I agree with the realistic Irishman who said he preferred to
prophesy after the event." Chesterton.

Question?

   What if you saw this video poker game in a casino? Would you

play

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "vppappy" <tismurph@h...> wrote:

it? What kind of bankroll would you need? Is this a positive game?

                     DOUBLE BONUS

                       4000 RF
                       4000 SF
                       4000 ACES
                       1500 2-3-4
                        125 5-K
                          5 FH
                          5 FL
                          5 ST
                          5 (3)
                          5 2-P
                          5 J'S

   "Gambling is not about how well you play the games. It's really
about how well you handle your money."
                     --VP Pappy

#3

would I play - No. There are opportunities that can be had with a
much better risk vs reward ratio that this very volitile game.

How much bankroll. off the cuff guess would be $35,000 for a .$25
game.

Yes it is quite positive for the long term player.

Question?

   What if you saw this video poker game in a casino? Would you

play

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "vppappy" <tismurph@h...> wrote:

it? What kind of bankroll would you need? Is this a positive game?

                     DOUBLE BONUS

                       4000 RF
                       4000 SF
                       4000 ACES
                       1500 2-3-4
                        125 5-K
                          5 FH
                          5 FL
                          5 ST
                          5 (3)
                          5 2-P
                          5 J'S

   "Gambling is not about how well you play the games. It's really
about how well you handle your money."
                     --VP Pappy

#4

vppappy wrote:

   What if you saw this video poker game in a casino? Would you play
it? What kind of bankroll would you need? Is this a positive game?

                     DOUBLE BONUS

                       4000 RF
                       4000 SF
                       4000 ACES
                       1500 2-3-4
                        125 5-K
                          5 FH
                          5 FL
                          5 ST
                          5 (3)
                          5 2-P
                          5 J'S

I don't think you need worry about hunting for this 103% game in your
favorite casino any time soon. Even the most stalwart player has
little stomach for a game where you're likely to lose $600+ in any
given hour on a $.25 game (or $2500 on a $1 game).

In terms of the casino, even if typical play is with such abysmal
strategy that the casino realizes a 5% hold, no casino is going to
find it an attractive paytable. The way casinos make money is by
keeping a player's butt in the seat, grinding through their play so
that the casino realizes their theo of $40 - $200+/hr. consistently
over time.

The typical player of this hypothetical machine will squirm around as
if their seat cushion was laced with cayenne pepper and will largely
be looking for a hit and run.

- Harry

#5

in the following what is theo

their theo of $40 - $200+/hr. consistently

thanks
goof

···

----- Original Message -----
  From: Harry Porter
  To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
  Sent: Tuesday, October 14, 2003 7:33 AM
  Subject: [vpFREE] Re: Can this game be beat?

  vppappy wrote:
  > What if you saw this video poker game in a casino? Would you play
  > it? What kind of bankroll would you need? Is this a positive game?
  >
  > DOUBLE BONUS
  >
  > 4000 RF
  > 4000 SF
  > 4000 ACES
  > 1500 2-3-4
  > 125 5-K
  > 5 FH
  > 5 FL
  > 5 ST
  > 5 (3)
  > 5 2-P
  > 5 J'S
  >

  I don't think you need worry about hunting for this 103% game in your
  favorite casino any time soon. Even the most stalwart player has
  little stomach for a game where you're likely to lose $600+ in any
  given hour on a $.25 game (or $2500 on a $1 game).

  In terms of the casino, even if typical play is with such abysmal
  strategy that the casino realizes a 5% hold, no casino is going to
  find it an attractive paytable. The way casinos make money is by
  keeping a player's butt in the seat, grinding through their play so
  that the casino realizes their theo of $40 - $200+/hr. consistently
  over time.

  The typical player of this hypothetical machine will squirm around as
  if their seat cushion was laced with cayenne pepper and will largely
  be looking for a hit and run.

  - Harry

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[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

#6

DJ GOOF wrote:

in the following what is theo

"their theo of $40 - $200+/hr. consistently"

I used this language in a prior reply to vppappy (quoted below). The
context was the theoretical profit a casino looks to receive while a
machine is in play (assuming a 5%+ hold that is typically realized on
a vp machine, reflecting a range of $.25 to $1+ machines).

In the case of vppappy's 103% paytable, a thinner hold of 3% would be
more likely. The point was that the casino is only going to realize
this revenue if the machines receive steady play. The severe interim
losses a player would experience on this paytable between "hits" would
make it unlikely the machine would receive much steady play.

- H.

···

  ----- Original Message -----
  From: Harry Porter
  To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
  Sent: Tuesday, October 14, 2003 7:33 AM
  Subject: [vpFREE] Re: Can this game be beat?

  vppappy wrote:
  > What if you saw this video poker game in a casino? Would you
  > play it? What kind of bankroll would you need? Is this a
  > positive game?
  >
  > DOUBLE BONUS
  >
  > 4000 RF
  > 4000 SF
  > 4000 ACES
  > 1500 2-3-4
  > 125 5-K
  > 5 FH
  > 5 FL
  > 5 ST
  > 5 (3)
  > 5 2-P
  > 5 J'S
  >

  I don't think you need worry about hunting for this 103% game in
  your favorite casino any time soon. Even the most stalwart player
  has little stomach for a game where you're likely to lose $600+ in
  any given hour on a $.25 game (or $2500 on a $1 game).

  In terms of the casino, even if typical play is with such abysmal
  strategy that the casino realizes a 5% hold, no casino is going to
  find it an attractive paytable. The way casinos make money is by
  keeping a player's butt in the seat, grinding through their play
  so that the casino realizes their theo of $40 - $200+/hr.
  consistently over time.

  The typical player of this hypothetical machine will squirm around
  as if their seat cushion was laced with cayenne pepper and will
  largely be looking for a hit and run.

  - Harry

#7

Cool I got the profitability part just wasn't familiar with theo short for theoretical so in the post about comps that were here is it the same thing I guess

···

----- Original Message -----
  From: Harry Porter
  To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
  Sent: Thursday, October 16, 2003 12:28 AM
  Subject: [vpFREE] Re: Can this game be beat?

  DJ GOOF wrote:
  > in the following what is theo
  >
  > "their theo of $40 - $200+/hr. consistently"

  I used this language in a prior reply to vppappy (quoted below). The
  context was the theoretical profit a casino looks to receive while a
  machine is in play (assuming a 5%+ hold that is typically realized on
  a vp machine, reflecting a range of $.25 to $1+ machines).

  In the case of vppappy's 103% paytable, a thinner hold of 3% would be
  more likely. The point was that the casino is only going to realize
  this revenue if the machines receive steady play. The severe interim
  losses a player would experience on this paytable between "hits" would
  make it unlikely the machine would receive much steady play.

  - H.

  > ----- Original Message -----
  > From: Harry Porter
  > To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
  > Sent: Tuesday, October 14, 2003 7:33 AM
  > Subject: [vpFREE] Re: Can this game be beat?
  >
  >
  > vppappy wrote:
  > > What if you saw this video poker game in a casino? Would you
  > > play it? What kind of bankroll would you need? Is this a
  > > positive game?
  > >
  > > DOUBLE BONUS
  > >
  > > 4000 RF
  > > 4000 SF
  > > 4000 ACES
  > > 1500 2-3-4
  > > 125 5-K
  > > 5 FH
  > > 5 FL
  > > 5 ST
  > > 5 (3)
  > > 5 2-P
  > > 5 J'S
  > >
  >
  >
  > I don't think you need worry about hunting for this 103% game in
  > your favorite casino any time soon. Even the most stalwart player
  > has little stomach for a game where you're likely to lose $600+ in
  > any given hour on a $.25 game (or $2500 on a $1 game).
  >
  > In terms of the casino, even if typical play is with such abysmal
  > strategy that the casino realizes a 5% hold, no casino is going to
  > find it an attractive paytable. The way casinos make money is by
  > keeping a player's butt in the seat, grinding through their play
  > so that the casino realizes their theo of $40 - $200+/hr.
  > consistently over time.
  >
  > The typical player of this hypothetical machine will squirm around
  > as if their seat cushion was laced with cayenne pepper and will
  > largely be looking for a hit and run.
  >
  > - Harry

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              ADVERTISEMENT
             
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[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

#8

FWIW, I came up with 107.25%

perhaps someone who came up with 103+% can post the strategy table
with frequencies for me to compare against. Perhaps the unique
paytable wreaked havoc with my program.

Elliot

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Harry Porter" <harry.porter@v...>
wrote:

DJ GOOF wrote:
> in the following what is theo
>
> "their theo of $40 - $200+/hr. consistently"

I used this language in a prior reply to vppappy (quoted below).

The

context was the theoretical profit a casino looks to receive while

a

machine is in play (assuming a 5%+ hold that is typically realized

on

a vp machine, reflecting a range of $.25 to $1+ machines).

In the case of vppappy's 103% paytable, a thinner hold of 3% would

be

more likely. The point was that the casino is only going to

realize

this revenue if the machines receive steady play. The severe

interim

losses a player would experience on this paytable between "hits"

would

make it unlikely the machine would receive much steady play.

- H.

> From: Harry Porter
> To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
> Sent: Tuesday, October 14, 2003 7:33 AM
> Subject: [vpFREE] Re: Can this game be beat?
>
>
> vppappy wrote:
> > What if you saw this video poker game in a casino? Would

you

> > play it? What kind of bankroll would you need? Is this a
> > positive game?
> >
> > DOUBLE BONUS
> >
> > 4000 RF
> > 4000 SF
> > 4000 ACES
> > 1500 2-3-4
> > 125 5-K
> > 5 FH
> > 5 FL
> > 5 ST
> > 5 (3)
> > 5 2-P
> > 5 J'S
> >
>
>
> I don't think you need worry about hunting for this 103% game

in

> your favorite casino any time soon. Even the most stalwart

player

> has little stomach for a game where you're likely to lose

$600+ in

> any given hour on a $.25 game (or $2500 on a $1 game).
>
> In terms of the casino, even if typical play is with such

abysmal

> strategy that the casino realizes a 5% hold, no casino is

going to

> find it an attractive paytable. The way casinos make money is

by

> keeping a player's butt in the seat, grinding through their

play

> so that the casino realizes their theo of $40 - $200+/hr.
> consistently over time.
>
> The typical player of this hypothetical machine will squirm

around

> as if their seat cushion was laced with cayenne pepper and

will

···

> ----- Original Message -----
> largely be looking for a hit and run.
>
> - Harry

#9

Elliot Frome wrote:

FWIW, I came up with 107.25%

perhaps someone who came up with 103+% can post the strategy table
with frequencies for me to compare against. Perhaps the unique
paytable wreaked havoc with my program.

> > 4000 RF
> > 4000 SF
> > 4000 ACES
> > 1500 2-3-4
> > 125 5-K
> > 5 FH
> > 5 FL
> > 5 ST
> > 5 (3)
> > 5 2-P
> > 5 J'S

Elliot, I'm relying upon WinPoker which, assuming I've correctly
specified the paytable, calculates the ER as 103.64%.

Maybe someone could confirm this value. It wouldn't be the first time
that, even after double and checking my input, I glossed over an error.

- Harry

#10

I was relying on my own program for the 107.25%

As the program is in its infancy, there could be some errors. If
Win Poker can put out a strategy table and/or the frequency of pre-
draw hands, I'd like to compare them. The uniqueness of this
paytable could be wreaking havoc on the programs.

Elliot

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Harry Porter" <harry.porter@v...>
wrote:

Elliot Frome wrote:
> FWIW, I came up with 107.25%
>
> perhaps someone who came up with 103+% can post the strategy

table

> with frequencies for me to compare against. Perhaps the unique
> paytable wreaked havoc with my program.

> > > 4000 RF
> > > 4000 SF
> > > 4000 ACES
> > > 1500 2-3-4
> > > 125 5-K
> > > 5 FH
> > > 5 FL
> > > 5 ST
> > > 5 (3)
> > > 5 2-P
> > > 5 J'S

Elliot, I'm relying upon WinPoker which, assuming I've correctly
specified the paytable, calculates the ER as 103.64%.

Maybe someone could confirm this value. It wouldn't be the first

time

that, even after double and checking my input, I glossed over an

error.

···

- Harry

#11

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Harry Porter" <harry.porter@v...>
wrote:

Elliot, I'm relying upon WinPoker which,

assuming I've correctly specified the paytable, calculates the ER as
103.64%. Maybe someone could confirm this value. It wouldn't be the
first time that, even after double and checking my input, I glossed
over an error.

- Harry>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

Harry,

Your value agrees with mine - also using WinPoker. For Elliot's
benefit, I've pasted the information from the analysis window below,
although I doubt that the columns will line up correctly after I post
the message.

EE

UNUSUAL BONUS POKER
Hand Name Payout Frequency% Prob.Occurs Every % of Ret.
ROYAL FLUSH 4000 72.26 0.003% 35967.72 2.22%
STRAIGHT FLUSH 4000 559.15 0.022% 4648.04 17.21%
4 ACES 4000 669.41 0.026% 3882.47 20.61%
4 2s, 3s or 4s 1500 1544.77 0.059% 1682.43 17.83%
4 5-K 125 3415.09 0.131% 761.02 3.29%
FULL HOUSE 5 15621.430.601% 166.37 0.60%
FLUSH 5 15382.920.592% 168.95 0.59%
STRAIGHT 5 19280.870.742% 134.79 0.74%
3 OF A KIND 5 175066.286.736% 14.85 6.74%
TWO PAIR 5 222554.858.563% 11.68 8.56%
JACKS OR BETTER 5 656207.5225.249 3.96 25.25%
NOTHING 0 1488585.4557.276%1.75 0.00%

Total Return 103.6405%

#12

Thanks.

I was actually looking for the pre-draw frequency and/or strategy
table.

For example, out of 2,598,960 hands, how many will be a 3 Card
Royal, High pair, One High Card, Razgu (discard all 5).

Obviously, there is a discrpancy somewhere. I'm trying to find it.

Elliot

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Harry Porter" <harry.porter@v...>
wrote:
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Elliot, I'm relying upon WinPoker which,
assuming I've correctly specified the paytable, calculates the ER

as

103.64%. Maybe someone could confirm this value. It wouldn't be

the

first time that, even after double and checking my input, I

glossed

over an error.
>
> - Harry>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

Harry,

Your value agrees with mine - also using WinPoker. For Elliot's
benefit, I've pasted the information from the analysis window

below,

although I doubt that the columns will line up correctly after I

post

the message.

EE

UNUSUAL BONUS POKER
Hand Name Payout Frequency% Prob.Occurs Every % of Ret.
ROYAL FLUSH 4000 72.26 0.003% 35967.72 2.22%
STRAIGHT FLUSH 4000 559.15 0.022% 4648.04

17.21%

4 ACES 4000 669.41 0.026% 3882.47

20.61%

4 2s, 3s or 4s 1500 1544.77 0.059% 1682.43

17.83%

4 5-K 125 3415.09 0.131% 761.02 3.29%
FULL HOUSE 5 15621.430.601% 166.37 0.60%
FLUSH 5 15382.920.592% 168.95 0.59%
STRAIGHT 5 19280.870.742% 134.79 0.74%
3 OF A KIND 5 175066.286.736% 14.85 6.74%
TWO PAIR 5 222554.858.563% 11.68 8.56%
JACKS OR BETTER 5 656207.5225.249 3.96

25.25%

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "eecounter" <eecounter@h...> wrote:

NOTHING 0 1488585.4557.276%1.75 0.00%

Total Return 103.6405%

#13

I get the results below from my program. Some of the Cycle numbers
are a tiny bit different than those posted for Winpoker, but the overall
number appears to match exactly. This may indicate that certain
plays permit two different holds which lead to the same EV, or it
may indicate that one of the programs has a small bug. In particular,
the full-house and two-pair numbers are noticeably different.

Full-house are always discarded, and the correct strategy with a
hand like TTTAA is to keep the pair of aces. Due to the rarity
of such hands, holding the trips would not cause a significant
loss in EV.

This is the first game where I've seen something listed in the
strategy that is lower in priority than the draw-5. With a hand
like Th 9d 7c 4h 2s the best play is to keep the lone 4 with
an EV of 27.712%, while the razgu draw has an EV of 27.675%.

  Goofy 1/1 from vpFREE forum
  Distribution of Final Hands

···

----------------------------------------------------
Final Hand Payoff % Hit Cycle % Return
----------------------------------------------------
Royal Flush 4000 0.0028 35964.07 2.2244
Straight Flush 4000 0.0215 4648.10 17.2113
4 Aces 4000 0.0258 3882.48 20.6054
4 (2,3,4) 1500 0.0594 1682.42 17.8314
4 K-5 125 0.1314 761.02 3.2851
Full House 5 0.5277 189.49 0.5277
Flush 5 0.5919 168.95 0.5919
Straight 5 0.7419 134.79 0.7419
3/Kind 5 6.7360 14.85 6.7360
Two Pair 5 8.6366 11.58 8.6366
High Pair 5 25.2488 3.96 25.2488
----------------------------------------------------
                         42.7238 2.34 103.6405

            Recommended Strategy
              High cards: AKQJ
------------------------------------------------------------
Rank Return Cards to keep
------------------------------------------------------------
    1 800.0000 Royal Flush
    2 800.0000 Straight Flush
    3 800.0000 4 Aces
    4 300.0000 4 (2,3,4)
    5 35.0000 trips (A)
    6 34.5005 suited KQJT
    7 34.3366 4/str-flush (0 holes)
    8 25.0000 4 K-5
    9 17.5002 suited AKQJ
   10 17.4380 4/str-flush (1 hole, 3 high)
   11 17.4378 suited AQJT/AKJT/AKQT
   12 17.2881 4/str-flush (1 hole)
   13 13.7234 trips (432)
   14 3.2174 pair (A)
   15 2.5397 suited QJT
   16 2.3601 3/str-flush (0 holes)
   17 2.0213 trips (KQJT98765)
   18 1.8847 suited KQJ
   19 1.7880 suited KJT/KQT
   20 1.6229 3/str-flush (1 hole)
   21 1.1363 suited AQJ/AKJ/AKQ
   22 1.1173 pair (432)
   23 1.0666 pair (KQJ)
   24 1.0451 3/str-flush (2 holes, 2 high)
   25 1.0449 suited AJT/AQT/AKT
   26 1.0000 Flush
   27 1.0000 Straight
   28 1.0000 Two Pair
   29 0.8864 3/str-flush (2 holes)
   30 0.5386 suited QJ
   31 0.5313 Ace
   32 0.4874 suited KJ/KQ
   33 0.4620 suited JT
   34 0.4097 suited QT
   35 0.4093 2/str-flush (1 hole, 1 high)
   36 0.3855 unsuited QJ
   37 0.3833 unsuited KQJ
   38 0.3821 unsuited KJ/KQ
   39 0.3673 Jack
   40 0.3622 Queen
   41 0.3612 2/str-flush (2 holes, 1 high)
   42 0.3610 suited KT
   43 0.3569 King
   44 0.3537 pair (T98765)
   45 0.3423 2/str-flush (0 holes, 0 high)
   46 0.2979 2/str-flush (1 hole, 0 high)
   47 0.2808 (draw 5 cards)
   48 0.2762 Four
------------------------------------------------------------

On Thursday 16 October 2003 02:11 pm, eecounter wrote:

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Harry Porter" <harry.porter@v...>

wrote:
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Elliot, I'm relying upon WinPoker which,

assuming I've correctly specified the paytable, calculates the ER as
103.64%. Maybe someone could confirm this value. It wouldn't be the
first time that, even after double and checking my input, I glossed
over an error.

> - Harry>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

Harry,

Your value agrees with mine - also using WinPoker. For Elliot's
benefit, I've pasted the information from the analysis window below,
although I doubt that the columns will line up correctly after I post
the message.

EE

UNUSUAL BONUS POKER
Hand Name Payout Frequency% Prob.Occurs Every % of Ret.
ROYAL FLUSH 4000 72.26 0.003% 35967.72 2.22%
STRAIGHT FLUSH 4000 559.15 0.022% 4648.04 17.21%
4 ACES 4000 669.41 0.026% 3882.47 20.61%
4 2s, 3s or 4s 1500 1544.77 0.059% 1682.43 17.83%
4 5-K 125 3415.09 0.131% 761.02 3.29%
FULL HOUSE 5 15621.430.601% 166.37 0.60%
FLUSH 5 15382.920.592% 168.95 0.59%
STRAIGHT 5 19280.870.742% 134.79 0.74%
3 OF A KIND 5 175066.286.736% 14.85 6.74%
TWO PAIR 5 222554.858.563% 11.68 8.56%
JACKS OR BETTER 5 656207.5225.249 3.96 25.25%
NOTHING 0 1488585.4557.276%1.75 0.00%

Total Return 103.6405%

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#14

I've posted a strategy in another post. If you'd like, I could
email you some more detailed data. The optimal strategy
for this game partitions the set of all possible outcome
"spectra" into 2648 cases that are mathematically distinct.
Those get distilled into the 48 strategy decisions, but the
raw data file includes all 2648 cases with EV and pre-draw
frequencies.

···

On Thursday 16 October 2003 01:13 pm, kilroydq2 wrote:

I was relying on my own program for the 107.25%

As the program is in its infancy, there could be some errors. If
Win Poker can put out a strategy table and/or the frequency of pre-
draw hands, I'd like to compare them. The uniqueness of this
paytable could be wreaking havoc on the programs.

Elliot