vpFREE2 Forums

Can this game be beat? (last thoughts)

Guys,

   Although it was kind of a far out vp pay scale, the point I was
trying to make was this:

   Once when I first started playing video poker, while in an Indian
casino here in Michigan , I noticed a quarter 6/5 JB game that was up
to about $3,000. I didn't know what the pay back percentage was, but
it sure looked good to me, so I sat down and played. About $500
later, and sick to my stomach, I had to give up broke and disgusted
with myself.

   Just because we find a game that looks or computes out to be
positive,
should we mortgage the house, sell the car, cash out the 401k, spend
our kids colledge funds and pry the gold fillings out of our mouths
to go after it secure in the smug knowledge that eventually we will
win?

   Putting your savings, your marriage, your life at risk trying to
catch the golden ring on a very expensive, high roller vp merry-go-
round may not be in our best interests no matter how good the odds.

   Knowing how much you will probably lose on the way to your
winnings is sort of like using the old Martingale system without any
house limits. You just keep throwing money into the pot because the
math says that we have to win. Right?

   Just think if you were on a dollar machine playing this game and
you had used up just about every bit of money that you could lay your
hands on and still hadn't hit anything. Would you start barrowing
money from you friends and relatives? I know I'm exaggerating this
scenario, but I've seen some people spend a fortune in the fruitless
quest for a sure thing in gambling and lost almost everything. Very,
very sad.

   "It's a very slippery slope once you start to chase your losses
with money you're not comfortable gambling-the destination can be
stomach-churning regret, if not self-deestructive."
                   --Andrew Brisman

Pappy,

Many have said it before, but none more eloquently than you. And
most will nod their heads at your examples and think "Not me! Not
ever!" Next thought: "but if it was a good play then, it's a good
play now."

With all the brilliant commentary on the threat of
variance/volatility/deviations/etc during normal play recently, you'd
think that.... No, never mind.

lb

There are many plays that "can be beat" but ones that most people should not play because of a limited bankroll.

We never say that just because a play is over 100% that everyone should play it because they are mathematically destined to win.

Every play has a mathematically figured ER or EV. But before you choose a play you must decide what confidence (or risk of ruin) level you are willing to accept and THEN decide whether you have a big enough bankroll for that level - or inversely, take your bankroll figure and see what your ROR figure would be - and see if you are comfortable with that.

There are a lot of "skilled" VP players out there playing way above their bankroll. And then when they crash, they say the math system "doesn't work." They got it turned around - the math system works, but they don't plug in their bankroll to the play selection process.

···

____________________
Jean $cott - "The Frugal Gambler"
MORE FRUGAL GAMBLING can now
be ordered, autographed, at
http://www.FrugalGambler.biz

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