Addendum to my post in response to cdfsrule:
I know you are trying to help me, so do not take my responses as
confrontational.
With that in mind, does what you posted agree/conform with the sessions
distributions published by Jazbo at jazbo.com?
Calculation of Risk of Loss
See below....
Addendum to my post in response to cdfsrule:
I know you are trying to help me, so do not take my responses as
confrontational.
I never would. Over the years, I have had my share of real confrontational academic
"discussions" with hundreds of millions resting on the interpretaion of statistical data. in
comparison, this is quiet pleasent!
With that in mind, does what you posted agree/conform with the sessions
distributions published by Jazbo at jazbo.com?
Jaszbo's results can be easily reproduced, if that is what you mean. I have personally
recomputed many of his PDF's. I guess you could say that I do so to check my "code"
rather than his-- but actually I am just looking for agreement, to make esure no one is far
off....
-- a note about the "area of the pdf in the central region": By "area" I mean the area under
the PDF curve. Interestingly, the central region of the session PDF grows fatter (wider)
with a lower peak in real terms-- as the number of hands increases. That's becuase in
computing the session results you are suming your hand results, not averaging them. The
"effect" on US is profound. The PDF does not collapse to a single sharp peak (a "delta
function) with eveyone getting the same results-- the average results in real units.
Instead the "area spreads outward" in the central region. Yet, less and less of this "area"
ends up in a relative sense in the tails, out of the central region. The only explanaton for
this is that the width of the central region grows-- in other words, that the CLT holds (for
a larger and larger region of the PDF, in real units)
This is indeed what you will see on Jaszbo's site. As the number of hands increases, the
central blob get wider (fatter with a lower peak). Just look at his PDF's (see volatility) as a
function of the number of hands (in his case 1000, 5000 and 10000-- but make sure to
look at the widths in ORDER of increasing # of hands (they are NOTpresented in order; try
printing them out and overalying them). You should see that the biggest peak is getting
fatter, smoother, more symmetric, (more normal), and lower (smaller peak)... This is the
"area" spreading out. However, what you can't see here is that the overall area of the main
peak is growing relative to the entire area of the curve-- because the long positive tail
isn't shown here at all (it has such a small area it wouldn't show on this scale anyway).
You have to imagine it... someone could have hit 1000 RF"s in a row. It's possible.. but,
well, unlikely. Not much area out there at 1000 RF's....
···
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "deuceswild1000" <deuceswild1000@...> wrote:
See below....
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "deuceswild1000" <deuceswild1000@>
wrote:
>
> Addendum to my post in response to cdfsrule:
>
> I know you are trying to help me, so do not take my responses as
> confrontational.I never would. Over the years, I have had my share of real
confrontational academic
"discussions" with hundreds of millions resting on the
interpretaion of statistical data. in
comparison, this is quiet pleasent!
Ok,thanks.
I have read your posting and others and still am having trouble
understanding how a large amount of vp hands becomes near normally
distributed.
I read but do not understand. I learn best by being shown how.
I have the following resources:
1)Paper with a graph with an x axis and a y axis on it
2) A pencil
3) A deck of cards (ok, we can use Winpoker to geneerate the data, it
will be a little quicker.
4) Lots of time (retired)
Would you tell me what statistic to generate and what units to put on
my x and y axes so that I construct a histogram that if I were to
literally do this a very large amount of times would give me a near
normal appearing distribution.
I will forgo literally a million or more times, because I think if I
get the concept, I will be able to visualize the results.
···
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "cdfsrule" <vpfree_digests@...> wrote: