vpFREE2 Forums

Calculation of Risk of Loss

#1

"denflo60" Wrote:

>My point is I do not see how a session can generate a distribution.

A session to me would generate a single data to be put into a
distibution
of sessions of a given hand size.<<

Good point. There's too little to go on.

deuceswild1000 Wrote:

The very smartest most learned people are unable to prove

that short term probablities cannot be exploited. They may be
correct when they say it, but they cannot prove it mathematically.
At least I have found nothing yet in the literature that proves it
and no one can give me a reference that proves it<<

I believe that they can, but I don't find it useful because nobody has organized a way to exploit short-term results.

Cogno Wrote:

That's because short-term results CAN be exploited. But to exploit them, you

need to do something other than go home and come back. You need some kind of
added value to quitting at a particular win or loss point.<<

Absolutely agree. I wish I could figure out a way to exploit this fact--I've thought about it. Linda

Linda Boyd
Author: "The Video Poker Edge"
www.squareonepublishers.com
Toll Free: 1-877-900-2665
Amazon.com/Bookstores: Stocked or By Order
Best Tutorial Software: WinPoker
www.videopokerpractice.com

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

#2

-Am I missing something here? Are we suggesting that a random game
might be "exploited" in some legal way? If so, I wonder how soon
the experts will weigh in? However, you might be right but I didn't
say it.

Cheers
.
.

"denflo60" Wrote:
> >My point is I do not see how a session can generate a

distribution.

A session to me would generate a single data to be put into a
distibution
of sessions of a given hand size.<<

Good point. There's too little to go on.

deuceswild1000 Wrote:

>>The very smartest most learned people are unable to prove
that short term probablities cannot be exploited. They may be
correct when they say it, but they cannot prove it mathematically.
At least I have found nothing yet in the literature that proves it
and no one can give me a reference that proves it<<

I believe that they can, but I don't find it useful because nobody

has organized a way to exploit short-term results.

Cogno Wrote:
>>That's because short-term results CAN be exploited. But to

exploit them, you

need to do something other than go home and come back. You need

some kind of

added value to quitting at a particular win or loss point.<<

Absolutely agree. I wish I could figure out a way to exploit this

fact--I've thought about it. Linda

···

.- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Linda Boyd" <maggie2194@...> wrote:

Linda Boyd
Author: "The Video Poker Edge"
www.squareonepublishers.com
Toll Free: 1-877-900-2665
Amazon.com/Bookstores: Stocked or By Order
Best Tutorial Software: WinPoker
www.videopokerpractice.com

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

#3

<<Am I missing something here? Are we suggesting that a random game
might be "exploited" in some legal way? If so, I wonder how soon
the experts will weigh in? >>

Gamblers have been looking for this "magic" bullet since the beginning of time. But any sort of starting/stopping techniques in the short term will not give you any advantage in the long term IF YOUR GOAL IS TO COME OUT ULTIMATELY WITH A PROFIT.

If you have other goals......well, that is okay but you can't have it both ways. Short-term techniques can have some value in managing a small financial bankroll and/or help you manage a small psychological bankroll. And if you have very small session win goals with a huge bankroll for long losses, it will look like you can win for a long time - but in the long run, if the game is a negative one, you will end up broke. It's called gambler's ruin!

I too wish I could win almost every session by doing some "tricks." But so far for 18 years, I have found that just slugging through the VP mud of 100%+ plays, I will lose many more sessions than I win, but have pulled out a cash profit in 17 years that made the tiny loss in one year an insignificant number. Some wouldn't call that a losing year anyway, with probably around 30K in comps - but I count comps only as "gravy," not cash profit!

···

________________________________________
Jean $�ott
The new " FRUGAL VIDEO POKER
SCOUTING GUIDE" and other frugal
products are available at my Web site,
http://queenofcomps.com/.

#4

Deuceswild1000 wrote the below:

> >My point is I do not see how a session can generate a

distribution.

A session to me would generate a single data to be put into a
distibution

Deuceswild1000 did NOT write the below:

···

>>The very smartest most learned people are unable to prove
that short term probablities cannot be exploited. They may be
correct when they say it, but they cannot prove it mathematically.
At least I have found nothing yet in the literature that proves it
and no one can give me a reference that proves it<<