Danton,
The one I sent:
http://www.lotspiech.com/poker/GamblersRuin.html
is just a web site. You don't have to buy anything. There is a java applet that downloads. Its nothing sophisticated. Since it's based on quarters, you need to multiply all the dollar values by four if you're thinking about dollars.
A quick run for dollar 9/6 JOB starting with $500 gives these results:
busted: <0.01%
-500 to -400: 0.01%
-400 to -300: 0.75%
-300 to -200: 7.2%
-200 to -100: 22%
-100 to zero: 29%
zero to 100: 22%
100 to 200: 11%
200 to 300: 4.3%
300 to 400: 1.3%
400 to 500: 0.29%
more than 500: 0.73%
Jon
ยทยทยท
-------- Original Message --------
Subject: [vpFREE] Re: Calculation of Risk of Loss
From: "Danton" <dabesq@yahoo.com>
Date: Thu, May 17, 2007 5:07 am
To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.comI appreciate the software references, but don't want to invest in
them for a one-time calculation. And the risk of ruin calculator
doesnt quite help me.Perhaps someone can run the numbers for my particulat situation.
Assume $500 bankroll playing a $1 JoB full coin. After 250 hands,
what is my expected loss at the bottom 20% level -- i.e. 1 out of 5
times I should expect to lose $X or more?Thanks!
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, jt417552@... wrote:
>
>
> In a message dated 5/16/2007 5:47:26 P.M. Pacific Daylight Time,
> dabesq@... writes:
>
> I am considering some short term play above my normal limits to
qualify
> for some promotions, but I would like some help calculating the
range
> of my exposure to loss. For example, playing 9/6 JoB at $1, is
there a
> calculator that can tell me the range of possible outcomes for a
given
> number of hands? Say I play 200 hands, what does the distribution
of
> possible net results look like?
>
>
>
> ..............
> There probably is a calculator [or a Harry Porter or Harry Porter
clone]
> somewhere to tell you stuff like that but... I'd suggest you play
quarters for
> four times as long to smooth out losing streaks. Let's say you
figure you need
> $600 to "guarantee" getting enough coin in to qualify for the
promo. What
> would be the return on the promo, $30 more a month bounce back for
three months?
> Would it still be $30 if you figure in the .005% loss on the Jacks
game? The
> $600 could slide down to zero playing dollars, very easily. How
would you
> feel then, walking out of the casino like the ploopies you see
walking out of
> the casino, with that look on their faces? You would feel worse,
$600 to get
> $30
> JT, been there, done that, got the T shirt, the T shirt was one
size fits
> all so it didn't fit anybody.
>
>
>
> ************************************** See what's free at
http://www.aol.com.
>
>
> [Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
>