vpFREE2 Forums

Calculating the frequency of "difficult" hands.

#1

I'm trying to figure out the cost of ignoring some minor errors in
correct play strategy. To do this you need to know the cost and the
frequency of these hands. Winpoker or a similar product can give me
the cost, but one has to know how often such a hand presents itself in
order to calculate how much EV they are giving up.

Take for example 10/7DB and holding a single Ace vs holding Ace and
another high card when certain penalty cards are present. How does one
go about calculating how often these close calls will present
themselves?

I know I could log their occurrence and get an approximation, but this
seems rather tedious and prone to error. Any help from the fine math
minds on this forum would be greatly appreciated.
-JFR

#2

This is difficult. If you just have a small number to figure, you can
probably get pretty close by hand. Otherwise, you need to come up
with a program for doing the evaluation, and that can get pretty
complicated.

There is some java source code available on sourceforge.net which is
pretty good, but may still have a few bugs, and it will take you a
while to figure out. I can send a better link if anyone is interested.

- John

ยทยทยท

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Jerry Reller" <JFReller@...> wrote:

I'm trying to figure out the cost of ignoring some minor errors in
correct play strategy. To do this you need to know the cost and the
frequency of these hands. Winpoker or a similar product can give me
the cost, but one has to know how often such a hand presents itself in
order to calculate how much EV they are giving up.

Take for example 10/7DB and holding a single Ace vs holding Ace and
another high card when certain penalty cards are present. How does one
go about calculating how often these close calls will present
themselves?

I know I could log their occurrence and get an approximation, but this
seems rather tedious and prone to error. Any help from the fine math
minds on this forum would be greatly appreciated.
-JFR

#3

Jerry Reller wrote:

I'm trying to figure out the cost of ignoring some minor errors in
correct play strategy. To do this you need to know the cost and the
frequency of these hands.

You refer, in the example in your post, to holds where penalty cards
factor into determining the "perfect" hold for a hand (vs the general
case holds detailed in a "non-penalty" strategy).

Skip Hughes, among others, has calculated and reported on the return
sacrifice if you play a non-penalty strategy vs perfect play. I don't
have numbers at hand, but we're talking nominal.

It's sufficient to say that if you pursue perfect play but don't have
standard strategy down cold, each basic play error will negate a dozen
or more penalty situations played "perfectly".

Aside from the strict ER consideration, a decrease in play speed is a
bias against perfect play for a positive ER game, while a potential
for improved concentration can lend an advantage.

- Harry