vpFREE2 Forums

Calculating EV for online offers

#1

Figuring there must be a nice shortcut, I tried to come up with a
formula for calculating the EV of these offers. Here's what I came
up with:
Let B = the bonus percent on the deposit (not the bonus amount).
Let P = the playthrough factor.
Let R = the return of the game including cashback.

Then the EV of the offer is given by
EV = (100 + B)[1 - P(1 - R)].

In the case of the Pinnaclesports offer,
EV = (100 + 10)[1 - 6(1 - .9984)] = 108.944%.

Note that this is for the fully cashable bonuses, not the sticky
bonuses that you can never cash. For most places, R = .9954, since
9/6 JoB is usually available. The B factor is so dominant that
(almost) any paytable can be played at a positive EV through the
bonus period.
Jeff

#2

Updating...please critique.

Let B = the bonus percent on the deposit (not the bonus amount).
Let P = the playthrough factor.
Let R = the return of the game including cashback.

The DR (deposit return) of the offer is given by
DR = (100 + B)[1 - P(1 - R)].

The PE (player edge) of the offer is given by
PE = 100(X/Y), where
X = (100 + B)[1 - P(1 - R)] - 100, and
Y = (100 + B)P.

The ER (expected return) of the offer is given by
ER = 100(X/Y), where
X = (100 + B)(1 + PR) - 100, and
Y = (100 + B)P.

In the case of the Pinnaclesports offer,
B = 10, P = 6, R = .9984, so
PE = 1.36%, ER = 101.36%, and DR = 108.9%.

In the case of the Jazz offer,
B = 100, P = 30, R = .9954, so
PE = 1.21%, ER = 101.21%, and DR = 172.4%.

A fairly typical offer is
B = 100, P = 10, R = .9964, so
PE = 4.64%, ER = 104.64%, and DR = 192.8%.

The Jazz offer is impressive because it has a large deposit ($500)
to go with a 100% bonus. A higher bonus percent will drive up the
DR and a higher P will drag it down. It seems to me that for the
bonus offers, the most important factor is DR as opposed to ER
(bottom line, you get more cash).
<snip from previous post follows>
Note that this is for the fully cashable bonuses, not the sticky
bonuses that you can never cash. For most places, R = .9954, since
9/6 JoB is usually available. The B factor is so dominant that
(almost) any paytable can be played at a positive EV through the
bonus period.
Jeff

#3

You only need three more factors:

Let G be the probability that the RNG is as good as possible (high for third party software such as Microgaming, most likely), and X be the probability that the online casino in question will give you your money. Lastly, let A represent the amount of time and effort you have to put in in order to get aforementioned cashout (utility bill, drivers license, firstborn, etc.)

Then you can multiply all of your formulae, represented by F(x) by these factors to get

Total return = F(x) * G * X * (1-A)

Brian J. Haagbrian_haag@yahoo.com

···

----- Original Message ----
From: jeffcole2003oct <jeff-cole@comcast.net>
To: vpFREE_Online@yahoogroups.com
Sent: Tuesday, March 14, 2006 4:27:33 PM
Subject: [vpFREE_Online] Calculating EV and deposit return for online bonus offers

Updating...please critique.

Let B = the bonus percent on the deposit (not the bonus amount).
Let P = the playthrough factor.
Let R = the return of the game including cashback.

The DR (deposit return) of the offer is given by
DR = (100 + B)[1 - P(1 - R)].

The PE (player edge) of the offer is given by
PE = 100(X/Y), where
X = (100 + B)[1 - P(1 - R)] - 100, and
Y = (100 + B)P.

The ER (expected return) of the offer is given by
ER = 100(X/Y), where
X = (100 + B)(1 + PR) - 100, and
Y = (100 + B)P.

In the case of the Pinnaclesports offer,
B = 10, P = 6, R = .9984, so
PE = 1.36%, ER = 101.36%, and DR = 108.9%.

In the case of the Jazz offer,
B = 100, P = 30, R = .9954, so
PE = 1.21%, ER = 101.21%, and DR = 172.4%.

A fairly typical offer is
B = 100, P = 10, R = .9964, so
PE = 4.64%, ER = 104.64%, and DR = 192.8%.

The Jazz offer is impressive because it has a large deposit ($500)
to go with a 100% bonus. A higher bonus percent will drive up the
DR and a higher P will drag it down. It seems to me that for the
bonus offers, the most important factor is DR as opposed to ER
(bottom line, you get more cash).
<snip from previous post follows>
Note that this is for the fully cashable bonuses, not the sticky
bonuses that you can never cash. For most places, R = .9954, since
9/6 JoB is usually available. The B factor is so dominant that
(almost) any paytable can be played at a positive EV through the
bonus period.
Jeff

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#4

I'm not sure what to make of following Jazz rule. Certainly needs clarification before I would deposit $.
On another note, I did deposit $ at 5Dimes for the FPDW play. No bonus - just a straight deposit and play.

Fred

http://www.jazzsports.com/bonuses/index.php
Make Up Figure
Any withdrawal creates a "make up". A make up figure is money that is withdrawn and needs to be replaced before any further bonus is paid.

Example: If a player deposits $500, receives his bonus and after a few winning bets decides he would like some of his money and he withdraws $800, he has created the make up. He must replace the $800 before any other bonus is placed into the account.

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

#5

Curiously enough, it appears that FPDW is offered in the "Bonus Casino", right? Anyone have a marketing code?

Brian J. Haagbrian_haag@yahoo.com

···

----- Original Message ----
From: Fred <fred123@mts.net>
To: vpFREE_Online@yahoogroups.com
Sent: Tuesday, March 14, 2006 5:19:13 PM
Subject: [vpFREE_Online] Jazz Casino

I'm not sure what to make of following Jazz rule. Certainly needs clarification before I would deposit $.
On another note, I did deposit $ at 5Dimes for the FPDW play. No bonus - just a straight deposit and play.

Fred

http://www.jazzsports.com/bonuses/index.php
Make Up Figure
Any withdrawal creates a "make up". A make up figure is money that is withdrawn and needs to be replaced before any further bonus is paid.

Example: If a player deposits $500, receives his bonus and after a few winning bets decides he would like some of his money and he withdraws $800, he has created the make up. He must replace the $800 before any other bonus is placed into the account.

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

vpFREE Links: http://members.cox.net/vpfree/Links.htm

Yahoo! Groups Links

#6

Fred wrote:
I'm not sure what to make of following Jazz rule. Certainly needs
clarification before I would deposit $.
On another note, I did deposit $ at 5Dimes for the FPDW play. No
bonus - just a straight deposit and play.

···

==========================================================
I thought this was a bit confusing as well. I'm surprised they let
you withdraw anything before the playthrough. Here's my take on it:
You deposit $500, they add $500. You start playing and get up to
$1300, and then decide to withdraw $800 (can't touch the other
$500). Before anything is put in your account in terms of bonuses,
cashback, etc., you will have to deposit $800 of your money and
finish the original playthrough requirement.

----------------------------------------------------------------
http://www.jazzsports.com/bonuses/index.php

Make Up Figure
Any withdrawal creates a "make up". A make up figure is money that

is withdrawn and needs to be replaced before any further bonus is
paid.

Example: If a player deposits $500, receives his bonus and after a

few winning bets decides he would like some of his money and he
withdraws $800, he has created the make up. He must replace the $800
before any other bonus is placed into the account.

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

#7

That rule is to keep people from getting bonus money by withdrawing
and then redepositing funds.

Otherwise I could deposit funds, receive bonus, work the wagering
requirement, withdraw and repeat.

http://www.jazzsports.com/bonuses/index.php
Make Up Figure
Any withdrawal creates a "make up". A make up figure is money that
is withdrawn and needs to be replaced before any further bonus is
paid.

Example: If a player deposits $500, receives his bonus and after a

few winning bets decides he would like some of his money and he
withdraws $800, he has created the make up. He must replace the $800
before any other bonus is placed into the account.

···

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

vpFREE Links: http://members.cox.net/vpfree/Links.htm

Yahoo! Groups Links