Date: Tue, 21 Mar 2006 13:13:44 -0000
From: "dunbar_dra" <h_dunbar@hotmail.com>
Subject: Re: Calculating average hands per stake on less than 100% games--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Royal Flusher" <royalflusher@...>
wrote:
>
> Let's say I'm playing 8/5 bonus or 9/6 jacks.
>
> Assuming a short term play with no royal, how would one calculate
the
> average number of hands from a given stake.
>
> For example, 0.25 8/5 bonus no royal, put in a $20 - whats the
average
> number of hands you can play on that $20 before its gone assuming
> perfect play?For 9/6 JOB, the answer is 655 hands or 134 hands, depending on what
you mean by "average".Do you want to know the mean number of hands you will play? (That's
the expected value of the number of hands you will play.) Or, do
you want to know the median number of hands you will get to play?The "mean" number of hands is gotten directly from the ev and the
bankroll. 9/6 JOB returns 99.54%, so your expected loss is 0.46% of
what you bet. If you want to rule out the royal, then you miss out
on another 1.98% of ev. Your total loss rate is 2.44%If you are playing a 25c 5-coin machine, you are betting 1.25 a
hand. You are losing "on average" 2.44% * 1.25 = 3.05 cents a pull.
You can "expect" to get $20.00/0.0305 = 655.7 hands. In other
words, if you started with $20 a million times, and you added up all
the hands you played before you went broke and divided by 1 million,
your answer would be pretty close to 655.7.Even though the "mean" number of hands you will get to play from
your $20 is 655.7, there is an 82% chance you will go broke before
655 hands!* The median is much less than the mean, in this case.The "median" result is the number of hands that you will exceed
exactly 50% of the time. To get that figure, I can use my program,
Dunbar's Risk Analyzer for Video Poker. I simply look for the
number of hands that gives me a 50% RoR. That number of hands is
134.You can do the same thing for the other game you were interested in.
--Dunbar
* I got the 82% figure from DRA-VP also.
That is an excellent answer, Dunbar, thank you very much. Happy to say
I purchased your Risk Analyzer two weeks ago and I am very impressed
with it but still getting sorted on what it all means.
The 134 is probably the right answer for what I am seeking. Just kind
of a yardstick to figure out if I got screwed or not on my play. 
As
a recreational player I am looking to minimize losses, increase my
chances of winning, and just get a really good gamble and a good feed
out of Vegas.
Naturally, I fully expect to win every time out. I find a positive
attitude helps.
Royal Flusher