vpFREE2 Forums

donald · January 14, 2020, 5:41pm

I am just back in Canada after spending 12 days at Sam's Town in Las Vegas. Although I spent as much as 3 months every winter in Las Vegas for about 10 years now I only visit there about once a year to get my gambling fix.

After years of running slightly above average in terms of probabilities and luck these are now trying to get me back to lifetime average luck in a hurry. In spite of all of this I did have a good time, I ate too much, saw some good movies and did wonderfully well on the stock market while I was gone so please do not feel at all sorry for me.

While there in the video poker department I stuck exclusively to FPDW. I play optimum strategy and while not playing that fast [500-600 hands/hour] I make very few errors. I plugged $35,887.50 into the machines. At $1.25/hand that represents a total of 28,710 hands played. I did not hit the large jackpot [royal flush, no deuces] which is not at all unusual. But what is unusual is that I did not hit the small jackpot [4 deuces] even once. Since that occurs about every 4900 hands on average that means that I played nearly 6 full cycles without hitting the deuces.

Any idea what the odds of that happening would be or the % of time that that might occur. My non-mathematical guess is that that would occur
less than 1% of the time.

What do you think and has this ever occured to you?

drwusa · January 14, 2020, 7:15pm

about 0.25% here is a link to a Poisson calulator

http://stattrek.com/Tables/Poisson.aspx

better luck next time

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "donald" <seetrout699@...> wrote:

I am just back in Canada after spending 12 days at Sam's Town in Las Vegas. Although I spent as much as 3 months every winter in Las Vegas for about 10 years now I only visit there about once a year to get my gambling fix.

After years of running slightly above average in terms of probabilities and luck these are now trying to get me back to lifetime average luck in a hurry. In spite of all of this I did have a good time, I ate too much, saw some good movies and did wonderfully well on the stock market while I was gone so please do not feel at all sorry for me.

While there in the video poker department I stuck exclusively to FPDW. I play optimum strategy and while not playing that fast [500-600 hands/hour] I make very few errors. I plugged $35,887.50 into the machines. At $1.25/hand that represents a total of 28,710 hands played. I did not hit the large jackpot [royal flush, no deuces] which is not at all unusual. But what is unusual is that I did not hit the small jackpot [4 deuces] even once. Since that occurs about every 4900 hands on average that means that I played nearly 6 full cycles without hitting the deuces.

Any idea what the odds of that happening would be or the % of time that that might occur. My non-mathematical guess is that that would occur
less than 1% of the time.

What do you think and has this ever occured to you?

bogus · January 14, 2020, 7:15pm

Here is a simple spreadsheet to do the calculation for you. Just copy everything below starting with <?xml.. into a text file (use notepad), save it with an xml extension and then open it in Excel.

Change cell B1 with the desired cycle and change cell B4 with the # of hands.

<?xml version="1.0"?>
<?mso-application progid="Excel.Sheet"?>
<Workbook xmlns="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:spreadsheet"
xmlns:o="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office"
xmlns:x="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:excel"
xmlns:ss="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:spreadsheet"
xmlns:html="http://www.w3.org/TR/REC-html40">
<Styles>
  <Style ss:ID="Default" ss:Name="Normal">
   <Alignment ss:Vertical="Bottom"/>
   <Borders/>
   <Font/>
   <Interior/>
   <NumberFormat/>
   <Protection/>
  </Style>
  <Style ss:ID="s20" ss:Name="Percent">
   <NumberFormat ss:Format="0%"/>
  </Style>
  <Style ss:ID="s21">
   <NumberFormat ss:Format="0"/>
  </Style>
  <Style ss:ID="s23" ss:Parent="s20">
   <NumberFormat ss:Format="0.0%"/>
  </Style>
  <Style ss:ID="s24" ss:Parent="s20">
   <NumberFormat ss:Format="0.0"/>
  </Style>
  <Style ss:ID="s25">
   <NumberFormat ss:Format="0.0"/>
  </Style>
</Styles>
<Worksheet ss:Name="Sheet1">
  <Table ss:ExpandedColumnCount="4" ss:ExpandedRowCount="38" x:FullColumns="1"
   x:FullRows="1">
   <Column ss:Index="2" ss:AutoFitWidth="0" ss:Width="74.25"/>
   <Column ss:AutoFitWidth="0" ss:Width="93"/>
   <Column ss:AutoFitWidth="0" ss:Width="69.75"/>
   <Row>
    <Cell><Data ss:Type="String">Success</Data></Cell>
    <Cell ss:Formula="=1/4900"><Data ss:Type="Number">2.0408163265306123E-4</Data></Cell>
   </Row>
   <Row>
    <Cell><Data ss:Type="String">Failure</Data></Cell>
    <Cell ss:Formula="=1-R[-1]C"><Data ss:Type="Number">0.99979591836734694</Data></Cell>
   </Row>
   <Row ss:Index="4">
    <Cell><Data ss:Type="String">Hands</Data></Cell>
    <Cell ss:StyleID="s21"><Data ss:Type="Number">28710</Data></Cell>
    <Cell><Data ss:Type="String">Expected</Data></Cell>
    <Cell ss:StyleID="s25" ss:Formula="=RC[-2]*R[-3]C[-2]"><Data ss:Type="Number">5.8591836734693876</Data></Cell>
   </Row>
   <Row ss:Index="6">
    <Cell><Data ss:Type="String">Count</Data></Cell>
    <Cell><Data ss:Type="String">Prob</Data></Cell>
    <Cell><Data ss:Type="String"># of sessions</Data></Cell>
   </Row>
   <Row ss:Index="8">
    <Cell><Data ss:Type="Number">0</Data></Cell>
    <Cell ss:StyleID="s23"
     ss:Formula="=R2C2^(R4C2-RC[-1])*R1C2^(RC[-1]) * COMBIN(R4C2,RC[-1])"><Data
      ss:Type="Number">2.4090838124644128E-3</Data></Cell>
    <Cell ss:StyleID="s24" ss:Formula="=1/RC[-1]"><Data ss:Type="Number">415.09556239848428</Data></Cell>
   </Row>
   <Row>
    <Cell ss:Formula="=R[-1]C+1"><Data ss:Type="Number">1</Data></Cell>
    <Cell ss:StyleID="s23"
     ss:Formula="=R2C2^(R4C2-RC[-1])*R1C2^(RC[-1]) * COMBIN(R4C2,RC[-1])"><Data
      ss:Type="Number">1.4118228768086261E-2</Data></Cell>
    <Cell ss:StyleID="s24" ss:Formula="=1/RC[-1]"><Data ss:Type="Number">70.830414808156632</Data></Cell>
   </Row>
   <Row>
    <Cell ss:Formula="=R[-1]C+1"><Data ss:Type="Number">2</Data></Cell>
    <Cell ss:StyleID="s23"
     ss:Formula="=R2C2^(R4C2-RC[-1])*R1C2^(RC[-1]) * COMBIN(R4C2,RC[-1])"><Data
      ss:Type="Number">4.136789260617383E-2</Data></Cell>
    <Cell ss:StyleID="s24" ss:Formula="=1/RC[-1]"><Data ss:Type="Number">24.173336783676476</Data></Cell>
   </Row>
   <Row>
    <Cell ss:Formula="=R[-1]C+1"><Data ss:Type="Number">3</Data></Cell>
    <Cell ss:StyleID="s23"
     ss:Formula="=R2C2^(R4C2-RC[-1])*R1C2^(RC[-1]) * COMBIN(R4C2,RC[-1])"><Data
      ss:Type="Number">8.0805364384450323E-2</Data></Cell>
    <Cell ss:StyleID="s24" ss:Formula="=1/RC[-1]"><Data ss:Type="Number">12.375416008796982</Data></Cell>
   </Row>
   <Row>
    <Cell ss:Formula="=R[-1]C+1"><Data ss:Type="Number">4</Data></Cell>
    <Cell ss:StyleID="s23"
     ss:Formula="=R2C2^(R4C2-RC[-1])*R1C2^(RC[-1]) * COMBIN(R4C2,RC[-1])"><Data
      ss:Type="Number">0.11837585364652689</Data></Cell>
    <Cell ss:StyleID="s24" ss:Formula="=1/RC[-1]"><Data ss:Type="Number">8.4476687533424144</Data></Cell>
   </Row>
   <Row>
    <Cell ss:Formula="=R[-1]C+1"><Data ss:Type="Number">5</Data></Cell>
    <Cell ss:StyleID="s23"
     ss:Formula="=R2C2^(R4C2-RC[-1])*R1C2^(RC[-1]) * COMBIN(R4C2,RC[-1])"><Data
      ss:Type="Number">0.13872697388330812</Data></Cell>
    <Cell ss:StyleID="s24" ss:Formula="=1/RC[-1]"><Data ss:Type="Number">7.2084034705547753</Data></Cell>
   </Row>
   <Row>
    <Cell ss:Formula="=R[-1]C+1"><Data ss:Type="Number">6</Data></Cell>
    <Cell ss:StyleID="s23"
     ss:Formula="=R2C2^(R4C2-RC[-1])*R1C2^(RC[-1]) * COMBIN(R4C2,RC[-1])"><Data
      ss:Type="Number">0.1354759878994817</Data></Cell>
    <Cell ss:StyleID="s24" ss:Formula="=1/RC[-1]"><Data ss:Type="Number">7.3813818633451405</Data></Cell>
   </Row>
   <Row>
    <Cell ss:Formula="=R[-1]C+1"><Data ss:Type="Number">7</Data></Cell>
    <Cell ss:StyleID="s23"
     ss:Formula="=R2C2^(R4C2-RC[-1])*R1C2^(RC[-1]) * COMBIN(R4C2,RC[-1])"><Data
      ss:Type="Number">0.11339706676091074</Data></Cell>
    <Cell ss:StyleID="s24" ss:Formula="=1/RC[-1]"><Data ss:Type="Number">8.8185702555113306</Data></Cell>
   </Row>
   <Row>
    <Cell ss:Formula="=R[-1]C+1"><Data ss:Type="Number">8</Data></Cell>
    <Cell ss:StyleID="s23"
     ss:Formula="=R2C2^(R4C2-RC[-1])*R1C2^(RC[-1]) * COMBIN(R4C2,RC[-1])"><Data
      ss:Type="Number">8.3048967539081767E-2</Data></Cell>
    <Cell ss:StyleID="s24" ss:Formula="=1/RC[-1]"><Data ss:Type="Number">12.041088885655478</Data></Cell>
   </Row>
   <Row>
    <Cell ss:Formula="=R[-1]C+1"><Data ss:Type="Number">9</Data></Cell>
    <Cell ss:StyleID="s23"
     ss:Formula="=R2C2^(R4C2-RC[-1])*R1C2^(RC[-1]) * COMBIN(R4C2,RC[-1])"><Data
      ss:Type="Number">5.4062858067577414E-2</Data></Cell>
    <Cell ss:StyleID="s24" ss:Formula="=1/RC[-1]"><Data ss:Type="Number">18.496987317060103</Data></Cell>
   </Row>
   <Row>
    <Cell ss:Formula="=R[-1]C+1"><Data ss:Type="Number">10</Data></Cell>
    <Cell ss:StyleID="s23"
     ss:Formula="=R2C2^(R4C2-RC[-1])*R1C2^(RC[-1]) * COMBIN(R4C2,RC[-1])"><Data
      ss:Type="Number">3.1673141629636768E-2</Data></Cell>
    <Cell ss:StyleID="s24" ss:Formula="=1/RC[-1]"><Data ss:Type="Number">31.57249166165106</Data></Cell>
   </Row>
   <Row>
    <Cell ss:Formula="=R[-1]C+1"><Data ss:Type="Number">11</Data></Cell>
    <Cell ss:StyleID="s23"
     ss:Formula="=R2C2^(R4C2-RC[-1])*R1C2^(RC[-1]) * COMBIN(R4C2,RC[-1])"><Data
      ss:Type="Number">1.6868461226656022E-2</Data></Cell>
    <Cell ss:StyleID="s24" ss:Formula="=1/RC[-1]"><Data ss:Type="Number">59.282230107614772</Data></Cell>
   </Row>
   <Row>
    <Cell ss:Formula="=R[-1]C+1"><Data ss:Type="Number">12</Data></Cell>
    <Cell ss:StyleID="s23"
     ss:Formula="=R2C2^(R4C2-RC[-1])*R1C2^(RC[-1]) * COMBIN(R4C2,RC[-1])"><Data
      ss:Type="Number">8.2348576891336858E-3</Data></Cell>
    <Cell ss:StyleID="s24" ss:Formula="=1/RC[-1]"><Data ss:Type="Number">121.43500686351277</Data></Cell>
   </Row>
   <Row>
    <Cell ss:Formula="=R[-1]C+1"><Data ss:Type="Number">13</Data></Cell>
    <Cell ss:StyleID="s23"
     ss:Formula="=R2C2^(R4C2-RC[-1])*R1C2^(RC[-1]) * COMBIN(R4C2,RC[-1])"><Data
      ss:Type="Number">3.7107311512557593E-3</Data></Cell>
    <Cell ss:StyleID="s24" ss:Formula="=1/RC[-1]"><Data ss:Type="Number">269.48866927790959</Data></Cell>
   </Row>
   <Row>
    <Cell ss:Formula="=R[-1]C+1"><Data ss:Type="Number">14</Data></Cell>
    <Cell ss:StyleID="s23"
     ss:Formula="=R2C2^(R4C2-RC[-1])*R1C2^(RC[-1]) * COMBIN(R4C2,RC[-1])"><Data
      ss:Type="Number">1.5526124524969551E-3</Data></Cell>
    <Cell ss:StyleID="s24" ss:Formula="=1/RC[-1]"><Data ss:Type="Number">644.0757308056958</Data></Cell>
   </Row>
   <Row>
    <Cell ss:Formula="=R[-1]C+1"><Data ss:Type="Number">15</Data></Cell>
    <Cell ss:StyleID="s23"
     ss:Formula="=R2C2^(R4C2-RC[-1])*R1C2^(RC[-1]) * COMBIN(R4C2,RC[-1])"><Data
      ss:Type="Number">6.0630099717937579E-4</Data></Cell>
    <Cell ss:StyleID="s24" ss:Formula="=1/RC[-1]"><Data ss:Type="Number">1649.3457946666501</Data></Cell>
   </Row>
  </Table>
</Worksheet>
</Workbook>

Claudia_Mitchell · January 14, 2020, 7:15pm

My husband and I visit Vegas four times a year and play mostly Boyd's casinos
The few trip has been like what you experienced - no royals and no deuces. For the amount of time spent and money put through the machines you would have thought at least a few times hitting four deuces.
Many times would draw to three but that elusive fourth deuce was no where to be

CLAWED:gift_heart:

···

On Feb 13, 2012, at 11:33 AM, "donald" <seetrout699@yahoo.ca> wrote:

I am just back in Canada after spending 12 days at Sam's Town in Las Vegas. Although I spent as much as 3 months every winter in Las Vegas for about 10 years now I only visit there about once a year to get my gambling fix.

After years of running slightly above average in terms of probabilities and luck these are now trying to get me back to lifetime average luck in a hurry. In spite of all of this I did have a good time, I ate too much, saw some good movies and did wonderfully well on the stock market while I was gone so please do not feel at all sorry for me.

While there in the video poker department I stuck exclusively to FPDW. I play optimum strategy and while not playing that fast [500-600 hands/hour] I make very few errors. I plugged $35,887.50 into the machines. At $1.25/hand that represents a total of 28,710 hands played. I did not hit the large jackpot [royal flush, no deuces] which is not at all unusual. But what is unusual is that I did not hit the small jackpot [4 deuces] even once. Since that occurs about every 4900 hands on average that means that I played nearly 6 full cycles without hitting the deuces.

Any idea what the odds of that happening would be or the % of time that that might occur. My non-mathematical guess is that that would occur
less than 1% of the time.

What do you think and has this ever occured to you?

TODAY(Beta) • Powered by Yahoo!
Reports of why Houston died emerge
The singer likely died from a mixture of prescription drugs and alcohol, family sources tell TMZ.
Privacy Policy

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

ohiodi50 · January 14, 2020, 7:15pm

What do you do the other 10 weeks that you are in Vegas? How do you manage 12 days at Sams? Comp?

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "donald" <seetrout699@...> wrote:

I am just back in Canada after spending 12 days at Sam's Town in Las Vegas. Although I spent as much as 3 months every winter in Las Vegas for about 10 years now I only visit there about once a year to get my gambling fix.

Brad_Riffel2 · January 14, 2020, 7:15pm

Wow, I feel your pain. I have hit the ducks many times even this past time only staying 3 nights and playing two days. The last Royal I hit was 20+ years ago at Binions on a Texas Holdem machine. I went back the next trip excited to play them and poof they were gone. I inquired about them and they said they took them out because the wouldn't hook up to their computer system to figure win-loss ratio. I ended up buying them and having them shipped to Amarillo. Sold all but one and went to play it a few days ago and the coin comparator is bad. Need to order another one.
I guess Lady Luck is fickle. Only advice I can give you is to only pee in the #6 urinal. counting left to right. If it doesn't have 6 then hold it.
Enjoy Canada
Brad
Amarillo

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, Vegas Poker <clawed4967@...> wrote:

My husband and I visit Vegas four times a year and play mostly Boyd's casinos
The few trip has been like what you experienced - no royals and no deuces. For the amount of time spent and money put through the machines you would have thought at least a few times hitting four deuces.
Many times would draw to three but that elusive fourth deuce was no where to be

drwusa · January 14, 2020, 7:15pm

I guess using the Poisson calculator is really difficult for some

You have to enter the actual number of Deuces that happened
In this case zero

Then you have to enter the expected number in this case 6.

you also have to click on the calculate button.

http://stattrek.com/Tables/Poisson.aspx

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "bogus" <boguslumber@...> wrote:

Here is a simple spreadsheet to do the calculation for you. Just copy everything below starting with <?xml.. into a text file (use notepad), save it with an xml extension and then open it in Excel.

Change cell B1 with the desired cycle and change cell B4 with the # of hands.

<?xml version="1.0"?>
<?mso-application progid="Excel.Sheet"?>
<Workbook xmlns="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:spreadsheet"
xmlns:o="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office"
xmlns:x="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:excel"
xmlns:ss="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:spreadsheet"
xmlns:html="http://www.w3.org/TR/REC-html40">
<Styles>
  <Style ss:ID="Default" ss:Name="Normal">
   <Alignment ss:Vertical="Bottom"/>
   <Borders/>
   <Font/>
   <Interior/>
   <NumberFormat/>
   <Protection/>
  </Style>
  <Style ss:ID="s20" ss:Name="Percent">
   <NumberFormat ss:Format="0%"/>
  </Style>
  <Style ss:ID="s21">
   <NumberFormat ss:Format="0"/>
  </Style>
  <Style ss:ID="s23" ss:Parent="s20">
   <NumberFormat ss:Format="0.0%"/>
  </Style>
  <Style ss:ID="s24" ss:Parent="s20">
   <NumberFormat ss:Format="0.0"/>
  </Style>
  <Style ss:ID="s25">
   <NumberFormat ss:Format="0.0"/>
  </Style>
</Styles>
<Worksheet ss:Name="Sheet1">
  <Table ss:ExpandedColumnCount="4" ss:ExpandedRowCount="38" x:FullColumns="1"
   x:FullRows="1">
   <Column ss:Index="2" ss:AutoFitWidth="0" ss:Width="74.25"/>
   <Column ss:AutoFitWidth="0" ss:Width="93"/>
   <Column ss:AutoFitWidth="0" ss:Width="69.75"/>
   <Row>
    <Cell><Data ss:Type="String">Success</Data></Cell>
    <Cell ss:Formula="=1/4900"><Data ss:Type="Number">2.0408163265306123E-4</Data></Cell>
   </Row>
   <Row>
    <Cell><Data ss:Type="String">Failure</Data></Cell>
    <Cell ss:Formula="=1-R[-1]C"><Data ss:Type="Number">0.99979591836734694</Data></Cell>
   </Row>
   <Row ss:Index="4">
    <Cell><Data ss:Type="String">Hands</Data></Cell>
    <Cell ss:StyleID="s21"><Data ss:Type="Number">28710</Data></Cell>
    <Cell><Data ss:Type="String">Expected</Data></Cell>
    <Cell ss:StyleID="s25" ss:Formula="=RC[-2]*R[-3]C[-2]"><Data ss:Type="Number">5.8591836734693876</Data></Cell>
   </Row>
   <Row ss:Index="6">
    <Cell><Data ss:Type="String">Count</Data></Cell>
    <Cell><Data ss:Type="String">Prob</Data></Cell>
    <Cell><Data ss:Type="String"># of sessions</Data></Cell>
   </Row>
   <Row ss:Index="8">
    <Cell><Data ss:Type="Number">0</Data></Cell>
    <Cell ss:StyleID="s23"
     ss:Formula="=R2C2^(R4C2-RC[-1])*R1C2^(RC[-1]) * COMBIN(R4C2,RC[-1])"><Data
      ss:Type="Number">2.4090838124644128E-3</Data></Cell>
    <Cell ss:StyleID="s24" ss:Formula="=1/RC[-1]"><Data ss:Type="Number">415.09556239848428</Data></Cell>
   </Row>
   <Row>
    <Cell ss:Formula="=R[-1]C+1"><Data ss:Type="Number">1</Data></Cell>
    <Cell ss:StyleID="s23"
     ss:Formula="=R2C2^(R4C2-RC[-1])*R1C2^(RC[-1]) * COMBIN(R4C2,RC[-1])"><Data
      ss:Type="Number">1.4118228768086261E-2</Data></Cell>
    <Cell ss:StyleID="s24" ss:Formula="=1/RC[-1]"><Data ss:Type="Number">70.830414808156632</Data></Cell>
   </Row>
   <Row>
    <Cell ss:Formula="=R[-1]C+1"><Data ss:Type="Number">2</Data></Cell>
    <Cell ss:StyleID="s23"
     ss:Formula="=R2C2^(R4C2-RC[-1])*R1C2^(RC[-1]) * COMBIN(R4C2,RC[-1])"><Data
      ss:Type="Number">4.136789260617383E-2</Data></Cell>
    <Cell ss:StyleID="s24" ss:Formula="=1/RC[-1]"><Data ss:Type="Number">24.173336783676476</Data></Cell>
   </Row>
   <Row>
    <Cell ss:Formula="=R[-1]C+1"><Data ss:Type="Number">3</Data></Cell>
    <Cell ss:StyleID="s23"
     ss:Formula="=R2C2^(R4C2-RC[-1])*R1C2^(RC[-1]) * COMBIN(R4C2,RC[-1])"><Data
      ss:Type="Number">8.0805364384450323E-2</Data></Cell>
    <Cell ss:StyleID="s24" ss:Formula="=1/RC[-1]"><Data ss:Type="Number">12.375416008796982</Data></Cell>
   </Row>
   <Row>
    <Cell ss:Formula="=R[-1]C+1"><Data ss:Type="Number">4</Data></Cell>
    <Cell ss:StyleID="s23"
     ss:Formula="=R2C2^(R4C2-RC[-1])*R1C2^(RC[-1]) * COMBIN(R4C2,RC[-1])"><Data
      ss:Type="Number">0.11837585364652689</Data></Cell>
    <Cell ss:StyleID="s24" ss:Formula="=1/RC[-1]"><Data ss:Type="Number">8.4476687533424144</Data></Cell>
   </Row>
   <Row>
    <Cell ss:Formula="=R[-1]C+1"><Data ss:Type="Number">5</Data></Cell>
    <Cell ss:StyleID="s23"
     ss:Formula="=R2C2^(R4C2-RC[-1])*R1C2^(RC[-1]) * COMBIN(R4C2,RC[-1])"><Data
      ss:Type="Number">0.13872697388330812</Data></Cell>
    <Cell ss:StyleID="s24" ss:Formula="=1/RC[-1]"><Data ss:Type="Number">7.2084034705547753</Data></Cell>
   </Row>
   <Row>
    <Cell ss:Formula="=R[-1]C+1"><Data ss:Type="Number">6</Data></Cell>
    <Cell ss:StyleID="s23"
     ss:Formula="=R2C2^(R4C2-RC[-1])*R1C2^(RC[-1]) * COMBIN(R4C2,RC[-1])"><Data
      ss:Type="Number">0.1354759878994817</Data></Cell>
    <Cell ss:StyleID="s24" ss:Formula="=1/RC[-1]"><Data ss:Type="Number">7.3813818633451405</Data></Cell>
   </Row>
   <Row>
    <Cell ss:Formula="=R[-1]C+1"><Data ss:Type="Number">7</Data></Cell>
    <Cell ss:StyleID="s23"
     ss:Formula="=R2C2^(R4C2-RC[-1])*R1C2^(RC[-1]) * COMBIN(R4C2,RC[-1])"><Data
      ss:Type="Number">0.11339706676091074</Data></Cell>
    <Cell ss:StyleID="s24" ss:Formula="=1/RC[-1]"><Data ss:Type="Number">8.8185702555113306</Data></Cell>
   </Row>
   <Row>
    <Cell ss:Formula="=R[-1]C+1"><Data ss:Type="Number">8</Data></Cell>
    <Cell ss:StyleID="s23"
     ss:Formula="=R2C2^(R4C2-RC[-1])*R1C2^(RC[-1]) * COMBIN(R4C2,RC[-1])"><Data
      ss:Type="Number">8.3048967539081767E-2</Data></Cell>
    <Cell ss:StyleID="s24" ss:Formula="=1/RC[-1]"><Data ss:Type="Number">12.041088885655478</Data></Cell>
   </Row>
   <Row>
    <Cell ss:Formula="=R[-1]C+1"><Data ss:Type="Number">9</Data></Cell>
    <Cell ss:StyleID="s23"
     ss:Formula="=R2C2^(R4C2-RC[-1])*R1C2^(RC[-1]) * COMBIN(R4C2,RC[-1])"><Data
      ss:Type="Number">5.4062858067577414E-2</Data></Cell>
    <Cell ss:StyleID="s24" ss:Formula="=1/RC[-1]"><Data ss:Type="Number">18.496987317060103</Data></Cell>
   </Row>
   <Row>
    <Cell ss:Formula="=R[-1]C+1"><Data ss:Type="Number">10</Data></Cell>
    <Cell ss:StyleID="s23"
     ss:Formula="=R2C2^(R4C2-RC[-1])*R1C2^(RC[-1]) * COMBIN(R4C2,RC[-1])"><Data
      ss:Type="Number">3.1673141629636768E-2</Data></Cell>
    <Cell ss:StyleID="s24" ss:Formula="=1/RC[-1]"><Data ss:Type="Number">31.57249166165106</Data></Cell>
   </Row>
   <Row>
    <Cell ss:Formula="=R[-1]C+1"><Data ss:Type="Number">11</Data></Cell>
    <Cell ss:StyleID="s23"
     ss:Formula="=R2C2^(R4C2-RC[-1])*R1C2^(RC[-1]) * COMBIN(R4C2,RC[-1])"><Data
      ss:Type="Number">1.6868461226656022E-2</Data></Cell>
    <Cell ss:StyleID="s24" ss:Formula="=1/RC[-1]"><Data ss:Type="Number">59.282230107614772</Data></Cell>
   </Row>
   <Row>
    <Cell ss:Formula="=R[-1]C+1"><Data ss:Type="Number">12</Data></Cell>
    <Cell ss:StyleID="s23"
     ss:Formula="=R2C2^(R4C2-RC[-1])*R1C2^(RC[-1]) * COMBIN(R4C2,RC[-1])"><Data
      ss:Type="Number">8.2348576891336858E-3</Data></Cell>
    <Cell ss:StyleID="s24" ss:Formula="=1/RC[-1]"><Data ss:Type="Number">121.43500686351277</Data></Cell>
   </Row>
   <Row>
    <Cell ss:Formula="=R[-1]C+1"><Data ss:Type="Number">13</Data></Cell>
    <Cell ss:StyleID="s23"
     ss:Formula="=R2C2^(R4C2-RC[-1])*R1C2^(RC[-1]) * COMBIN(R4C2,RC[-1])"><Data
      ss:Type="Number">3.7107311512557593E-3</Data></Cell>
    <Cell ss:StyleID="s24" ss:Formula="=1/RC[-1]"><Data ss:Type="Number">269.48866927790959</Data></Cell>
   </Row>
   <Row>
    <Cell ss:Formula="=R[-1]C+1"><Data ss:Type="Number">14</Data></Cell>
    <Cell ss:StyleID="s23"
     ss:Formula="=R2C2^(R4C2-RC[-1])*R1C2^(RC[-1]) * COMBIN(R4C2,RC[-1])"><Data
      ss:Type="Number">1.5526124524969551E-3</Data></Cell>
    <Cell ss:StyleID="s24" ss:Formula="=1/RC[-1]"><Data ss:Type="Number">644.0757308056958</Data></Cell>
   </Row>
   <Row>
    <Cell ss:Formula="=R[-1]C+1"><Data ss:Type="Number">15</Data></Cell>
    <Cell ss:StyleID="s23"
     ss:Formula="=R2C2^(R4C2-RC[-1])*R1C2^(RC[-1]) * COMBIN(R4C2,RC[-1])"><Data
      ss:Type="Number">6.0630099717937579E-4</Data></Cell>
    <Cell ss:StyleID="s24" ss:Formula="=1/RC[-1]"><Data ss:Type="Number">1649.3457946666501</Data></Cell>
   </Row>
  </Table>
</Worksheet>
</Workbook>

bogus · January 14, 2020, 7:15pm

The spreadsheet just looks complicated in xml format. It is a very simple spreadsheet and more importantly, people can see why and how it works. Most online calculators just give you an answer and you have no idea how or why it works. In excel you can look at each formula and figure out what is happening.

drwusa · January 14, 2020, 7:15pm

??? FWIW

here is the complete equation for solving this problem exactly

(1/e)^6= 0.25% where e = 2.718 (natural log)

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "bogus" <boguslumber@...> wrote:

The spreadsheet just looks complicated in xml format. It is a very simple spreadsheet and more importantly, people can see why and how it works. Most online calculators just give you an answer and you have no idea how or why it works. In excel you can look at each formula and figure out what is happening.

bogus · January 14, 2020, 7:15pm

I don't mean to be picky, but your formula doesn't solve the question exactly (your word). The poisson distribution is an approximation. In this problem the difference is as follows:

using # of hands = 28710 and prob of 4 deuces = 1/4900

exact answer using binomial distribution
(1-1/4900)^28710 = 0.28518...%

approx answer using poisson
(1/e)^(28710/4900) = 0.28535...%

Again, I mean no offense but when you said exactly I just wanted to point out that the poisson is an approximation. As we see, it is a very accurate one!

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "drwusa" <drwusa@...> wrote:

??? FWIW

here is the complete equation for solving this problem exactly

(1/e)^6= 0.25% where e = 2.718 (natural log)

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "bogus" <boguslumber@> wrote:
>
> The spreadsheet just looks complicated in xml format. It is a very simple spreadsheet and more importantly, people can see why and how it works. Most online calculators just give you an answer and you have no idea how or why it works. In excel you can look at each formula and figure out what is happening.
>

Brief Trip Report From Sam's Town