Actually, I meant quite the opposite. In the first hand after a
4-to-an-outside-straight, 4-to-a-flush (including 4-to-a-SF and
4-to-a-RF), the likelihood of being dealt one of the cards that would
have completed the draw is higher than what most people would expect,
which can make some people believe that the machine is nagging them.
Let me use an example, 9/6 JoB:
You're dealt 2-3-4-5-9 rainbow. You keep 2-3-4-5, hoping to draw an A
or 6, which happens 17% of the time, i.e. about a 1-in-6 chance, i.e.
you're far more likely to *not* hit a straight. On the other hand 58%
of dealt hands have either an A or a 6, independently of what the
previous hand was. So, we have the following probabilities after being
dealt 2-3-4-5-9 rainbow and keeping the 4-card-straight:
Getting a straight: 17%
Not getting a straight and being dealt A or 6 in the next hand: 48%
Not getting a straight and not being dealt A or 6 in the next hand: 35%
i.e. about half the time when drawing from a 4-card-outside-straight,
you won't actually hit your straight *and* the next hand you're dealt
will contain one of the 8 cards you were missing for your straight
(that's what I call a nag). Put it another way, the "nag-to-win" ratio
is about 2.8:1 - it doesn't take much selective memory to think that
the machine is rigged.
Take the more extreme case of 4-to-an-inside-straight-flush. There's a
4.2% chance of hitting the straight flush, and there's an 18.5% chance
of the next hand containing either of the cards you wanted. i.e. 17.7%
of the times, after drawing from 4-card-outside-straight-flush, you
won't hit a straight flush *and* the next hand you're dealt will
contain either of the cards that would have completed your straight
flush. Put it another way, that's a "nag-to-win" ratio of 4.2:1.
So, even if a machine isn't rigged, it will often behave in ways that
can make some people think that it is.
JBQ
···
On 8/1/05, jimnkelli <jbecker11@charter.net> wrote:
Lets assume that what you are saying is true… so the casino would
rig the machine to show you the card you needed in a previous hand, in
the next hand so as to piss you off???