dunbar- thanks much for all your help
I did forget to add the bonus to the royal, but the SF will only
pay
me 150 coins($750) for 3 coins in so it won't be a handpay.
Not that it matters much, if I go with this strategy I am playing
all
out for a 4OAK
Ouch, you're right--I made yet another error! After removing the
bonus from the SF payoff, I now get 108.37% with variance of 45.1.
Hopefully together we have finally come up with the return of the
game.
Even if you go all out for the 4OAK, maybe you'll have to suffer
through getting it on an RF handpay. ;>)
--Dunbar
PS--psst, don't tell Harry I'm still thinking about this from Hawaii.
>
> You are almost correct (and way closer than I was!). The return
and
> variance are slightly higher than what you came up with. You
didn't
> include the handpay bonus for royals and SF's.
>
> A $750 bonus is 150 coins if the coin is $5. For a 5-coin
paytable
> you should add 250 coins, which is what you did for the 4OAK
> payoff. The RF should be 1500 coins and the SF 500 coins.
>
> With those changes to your paytable, the return is 108.9% and
the
> variance is 46.0. Both WinPoker and vpGenius agree on those
figs.
>
> The 25% RoR for a $2000 bankroll that I got from using Dunbar's
Risk
> Analyzer should still be accurate. I used a no-bonus 8/5
paytable
> except that I substituted huge payoffs for the possible
handpays.
> That way I either go broke or end up above my "Goal". That's a
> crude but effective way of modeling walking away after a handpay.
>
> Obviously, if you can expect to play 500 hands before going
broke
or
> getting a handpay (and I'm still not comfortable with that
estimate,
> but I'm unwilling to work on it right now--see below), then the
game
> is very attractive. 500*$15*8.9% = $668. That's a nice portion
of
> the $750 available from the handpay bonus.
>
> Thanks for catching my blunder. (my error was in my conversion
of
> $750 into units) It perhaps goes to show that tackling any
> question more complicated than the next place to snorkel is
risky
> while vacationing in Hawaii.
>
> --Dunbar
>
>
>
>
> >
> > I entered the following 5 coin payouts into VPgenius for $5
8/5
BP
> > Deluxe and got a return of 108%
> > RF 1250
> > SF 250
> > 4OAK 650 (390 for 3 coins "240 + 150 bonus")
> > FH 40
> > FL 25
> > ST 20
> > 3OAK 15
> > 2p 5
> > j/b 5
> >
> >
> > The return for this paytable is 108.2745% with perfect play.
> > The variance for this paytable is 44.5501 individual bets.
> >
> > Hand Payoff Count Probability Frequency Variance Return
> > Royal Flush $1,250.00 383,632,908 0.0019% 1 in 51,959.1258
1.1925
> > 0.4811%
> > Straight Flush $250.00 2,065,002,576 0.0104% 1 in 9,652.8841
> 0.2479
> > 0.5180%
> > Four of a Kind $650.00 49,772,835,228 0.2497% 1 in 400.4841
> 41.4989
> > 32.4607%
> > Full House $40.00 164,263,165,308 0.8241% 1 in 121.3494 0.3943
> > 6.5925%
> > Flush $25.00 224,902,036,896 1.1283% 1 in 88.6307 0.1731
5.6414%
> > Straight $20.00 259,026,394,068 1.2995% 1 in 76.9544 0.1106
> 5.1979%
> > Three of a Kind $15.00 1,562,902,308,768 7.8407% 1 in 12.7540
> 0.2882
> > 23.5221%
> > Two Pair $5.00 2,174,821,363,368 10.9105% 1 in 9.1655 0.0007
> 10.9105%
> > Jacks or Better $5.00 4,574,735,827,668 22.9503% 1 in 4.3572
> 0.0016
> > 22.9503%
> > Nothing $0.00 10,920,357,950,412 54.7847% 1 in 1.8253 0.6423
> 0.0000%
> > Totals 19,933,230,517,200 Any Win: 1 in 2.2116 44.5501
108.2745%
> >
> > Here is a link, you can enter the paytable and use paytable
> analyzer.
> > http://www.vpgenius.com/video-poker/bonus-poker-deluxe.aspx
> >
> > Let me know if this looks correct.
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> > >
> > > 8/6 BPD has a return of 98.49%. 8/5 with 3 coins (3*250
coins
> for
> > > RF) has a return of 96.19% according to WinPoker.
> > >
> > > Adding in the $750 handpay would make this game (3-coin $5
8/5
> BPD)
> > > barely positive: 100.2%, again according to WinPoker
(assuming
I
> > > have made the adjustments correctly).
> > >
> > > Taking the WinPoker data and putting it into Dunbar's Risk
> > > Analyzer:
> > > For $5 BPD with 3 coins at 8/5 (with a shorted RF payout), a
> $2000
> > > bankroll would suffice 75% of the time to reach a handpay.
The
> > > other 25% of the time you would lose the $2000 bankroll.
You
> have
> > > less than a 1% chance of needing more than 1000 hands to
finish
> the
> > > play.
> > >
> > > I can't easily calculate the average number of hands you'd
play,
> > but
> > > even at a generous 500 hand estimate, the EV would be just
> > > 500*$15*0.2%=$15. And it's probably less than that.
> > >
> > > If by chance the BPD is 8/6, then with the shorted Royal,
the
> > return
> > > is 97.37% (WinPoker). With the $750 handpay, the ev is
> 101.34%.
> > > The 500-hand estimate would yield an EV of 500*$15*1.34% =
$100
> > > (though, again, it is probably less than that because "500"
is
> most
> > > likely a overestimate of the average number of hands
required).
> > >
> > > --Dunbar
> > >
> > > >
> > > > I'm considering taking a shot at this game three coin ($5)
> > > > with the + $750 to any handpay.
> > > >
> > > > 1. Does anyone know what the paytable Caesars AC has @ the
$5
> > > level.
> > > >
> > > > 2. Assuming it is 8/5 what is the ROR if I use a 2k
bankroll
···
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "maclarenv12" <ahduff@...> wrote:
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "dunbar_dra" <h_dunbar@> wrote:
> --- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "maclarenv12" <ahduff@> wrote:
> > --- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "dunbar_dra" <h_dunbar@> wrote:
> > > --- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "maclarenv12" <ahduff@> wrote:
> and
> > > will
> > > > quit after the first handpay?
> > > >
> > > > Thanks
> > > >
> > >
> >
>