Bob Dancer's LVA - 18 NOV 2014
My Adventure at the SLS --- Part 2 of 2
http://www.lasvegasadvisor.com/bob_dancer/2014/1118.cfm
*************************************************
This link is posted for informational purposes
and doesn't constitute an endorsement or approval
of the linked article's content by vpFREE. Any
discussion of the article must be done in
accordance with vpFREE's rules and policies.
*************************************************
Interesting article, although aside from telling us what happened I'm not sure if there was a point being made, other than it's another casino that opened loose, got beat and tightened up too much. The same thing happened at the "M" and the Downtown Grand, and I'm sure many others.
A.P.
________________________________
From: "vpFREE3355 vpfree3355@gmail.com [vpFREE]" <vpFREE@yahoogroups.com>
To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
Sent: Tuesday, November 18, 2014 1:08 PM
Subject: [vpFREE] Bob Dancer's LVA - 18 NOV 2014
Bob Dancer's LVA - 18 NOV 2014
My Adventure at the SLS --- Part 2 of 2
http://www.lasvegasadvisor.com/bob_dancer/2014/1118.cfm
*************************************************
This link is posted for informational purposes
and doesn't constitute an endorsement or approval
of the linked article's content by vpFREE. Any
discussion of the article must be done in
accordance with vpFREE's rules and policies.
*************************************************
[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
<<Interesting article, although aside from telling us what happened I'm not sure if there was a point being made, other than it's another casino that opened loose, got beat and tightened up too much. The same thing happened at the "M" and the Downtown Grand, and I'm sure many others.>>
I think the point was that no matter how loudly you announce that you never play without a healthy advantage over the casino, and no matter for how many years you repeat the message, some casino managers are still stupid enough to let you play.
Cogno
I thought the article demonstrated the need to be well bankrolled to play these low margin/how volatility games. And I enjoyed reading it.
To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
From: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
Date: Tue, 18 Nov 2014 10:41:55 -0800
Subject: Re: [vpFREE] Bob Dancer's LVA - 18 NOV 2014Interesting article, although aside from telling us what happened I'm not sure if there was a point being made, other than it's another casino that opened loose, got beat and tightened up too much. The same thing happened at the "M" and the Downtown Grand, and I'm sure many others.
A.P.
________________________________
To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
Sent: Tuesday, November 18, 2014 1:08 PM
Subject: [vpFREE] Bob Dancer's LVA - 18 NOV 2014
Bob Dancer's LVA - 18 NOV 2014My Adventure at the SLS --- Part 2 of 2
http://www.lasvegasadvisor.com/bob_dancer/2014/1118.cfm
*************************************************
This link is posted for informational purposes
and doesn't constitute an endorsement or approval
of the linked article's content by vpFREE. Any
discussion of the article must be done in
accordance with vpFREE's rules and policies.
*************************************************
[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]------------------------------------
Posted by: Albert Pearson <ehpee@rogers.com>
------------------------------------vpFREE Links: http://www.west-point.org/users/usma1955/20228/V/Links.htm
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Yahoo Groups Links
[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
From: "vpFREE3355 vpfree3355@gmail.com [vpFREE]" <vpFREE@yahoogroups.com>
This is how it really went down. The casino needed to get some action to justify the special high-roller room. So they juiced it a bit, offering to match other casino's offers in freeplay. There were lots of looky-loo's but no bites, not even a nibble or a nudge, until Bob got hooked. But Bob did make a crucial mistake, he used maxEV strategy, and ran well, beating the machine straightup even without the royal he hit. The problem now is that it's very hard for the casino to offer Bob more juice, after all it appears that even if he didn't hit a royal, he would still beat the machine. How do you sell that story to the CEO? Had he played min-Royal strategy instead, he would have reduced his odds of hitting the game ending royal and likely would have lost some on the drop as well, making it easier for the casino to offer some additional juice. Let's hope Bob learns a valuable lesson from this experience, perhaps he will even write about that in his column, after all you learn from your mistakes, not from your achievements.
(In case anyone wants to know what strategy I'm calling minRoyal, the basic idea is that you maximize the return of the non-royal hands, by setting the royal value to zero in your strategy generator of choice you get something like: 3A>FH>4SF>2A>2P>HP>4FL>4STo3-1H>LP>4STo>3FL3-2H>3SF0>AKQJ>2FL2H>4STi3H>3SF1> KQJ>4STi2H>QJ>A>2H>3FL1H>1H>3SF2>4STi)
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I am
not a fan of alternative strategies. Perhaps it is ignorance or stubbornness on
my part, but I don’t see them as improving my results. I prefer to attempt to
play max-EV strategy close to perfectly rather than sometimes min-royal,
sometimes max-royal, sometimes something else. Every additional strategy in my
arsenal creates a potential for confusing them up and making big mistakes. If NOTI
believes I am leaving money on the table sticking with one strategy, I’ll live
with it.
That
said, some of the posts in this thread confuse whether or not I actually hit a
royal flush on the SLS play with what strategy I was using. I connected on a
1-card draw --- something like AKQT suited with an off-suit 7. Even if I were
using a min-royal strategy, I would toss the 7 and hold the other four. AKQT is
both a 4-card flush and a 4-card inside straight --- both including three high
cards. So using the min-royal strategy wouldn’t have changed the fact that I
hit a royal. (NOTI correctly noted that it would reduce my CHANCES for a royal --- and CHANCES for profit. But others came close to arguing that since I hit a royal flush, obviously I was using the correct strategy. That, of course, would be nonsense.)
Also, I
learned during the play that a big player had hit at least one $200,000 jackpot
the night before on the same machines. My “best guess” was that the pay
schedules wouldn’t survive management’s Monday morning post mortem no matter what
I did. Even if I were inclined to suffer worse results to “take one for the
vp-community team,” such a gesture this time would likely be futile and
expensive. That made it easier for me to conclude that doing so wouldn’t be a
smart idea.
Clearly
NOTI is a bright analyst and contributes a lot to this site. I would welcome
the opportunity to get to know him/her better face to face rather than just
through email. But when it comes to his/her alternative strategies, I’m not a
buyer.
Bob
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---In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, <bobdancervp@...> wrote :
I am not a fan of alternative strategies. Perhaps it is ignorance or stubbornness on
my part, but I don�t see them as improving my results.
-------
NOTI's approaches generally strike me as academically smart, but impractical. In this case, as you suggest, he underestimates the threat from play by others and the associated implicit opportunity cost.
Nonetheless, he makes a sublime and compelling argument.
[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
For a recreational player it is hard enough to master one strategy, to try and add a second one is inviting mistakes especially if it is for the same game. Again speaking about recreational players, I doubt that results would be significantly different in the long run. A.P.
From: "harry.porter@verizon.net [vpFREE]" <vpFREE@yahoogroups.com>
To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
Sent: Wednesday, November 19, 2014 12:37 PM
Subject: RE: [vpFREE] Bob Dancer's LVA - 18 NOV 2014
---In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, <bobdancervp@...> wrote :
I am not a fan of alternative strategies. Perhaps it is ignorance or stubbornness on
my part, but I don�t see them as improving my results.
-------
NOTI's approaches generally strike me as academically smart, but impractical. In this case, as you suggest, he underestimates the threat from play by others and the associated implicit opportunity cost.
Nonetheless, he makes a sublime and compelling argument.
[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
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I expect NOTI will have a bone to pick with you, AP, where it comes to that "significantly different" comment ... but re recreational players, we're in complete agreement.
---In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, <ehpee@...> wrote :
For a recreational player it is hard enough to master one strategy, to try and add a second one is inviting mistakes especially if it is for the same game. Again speaking about recreational players, I doubt that results would be significantly different in the long run. A.P.
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I think I would say that it is a judgment call, how desperately do you want that royal? If you're playing for a long time (at least over N0) then maxEV is the appropriate amount of royal chasing aggression for optimal net EV. But what about one hand? One $125 hand of 10-6 DDB with maxEV and ignoring the royal yields an average return of 0.98 x $125 = $122.50 . One $125 hand of 10-6 DDB with minRoyal strategy and ignoring the royal yields an average return of 0.984 x $125 = $123.00 . 50 cents more average return per hand for minRoyal strategy (if you ignore the royal). Is that significant? That's your call. How desperately do you want that royal?
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I understand exactly where you're coming from NOTI. Alternative, risk-preserving strategies seem apropos for any atypical play that represent disproportionate bankroll risk.
But simply because a single play may represent a very limited opportunity is no reason, alone, to employ alternate strategy. If a play has similar (even if not identical) risk/reward characteristics in common with plays you're likely to engage with meaningful frequency down the road, then there's no need to consider the risk of the play in isolation and it's much more likely that maxEV is appropriate strategy (with N0 hands of play being a reasonable hurdle).
My impression of Bob's SLS play is that this latter description is a fairer take on it.
---In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, <nightoftheiguana2000@...> wrote :
I think I would say that it is a judgment call, how desperately do you want that royal? If you're playing for a long time (at least over N0) then maxEV is the appropriate amount of royal chasing aggression for optimal net EV. But what about one hand? One $125 hand of 10-6 DDB with maxEV and ignoring the royal yields an average return of 0.98 x $125 = $122.50 . One $125 hand of 10-6 DDB with minRoyal strategy and ignoring the royal yields an average return of 0.984 x $125 = $123.00 . 50 cents more average return per hand for minRoyal strategy (if you ignore the royal). Is that significant? That's your call. How desperately do you want that royal?
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AP wrote: "For a recreational player it is hard enough to master one strategy, to try and add a second one is inviting mistakes ..."
Would you use or recommend maxEV strategy for a video poker tournament? If so you are likely at a significant disadvantage as maxRoyal strategy is almost always the correct strategy in that situation (play each hand to maximize chance of hitting a royal).
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50 cents a hand times 5000 hands means I would give up $2,500 playing the min Royal strategy. I agree it's a matter of opinion --- but to me that's clearly significant. Voluntarily giving up 0.4% on a play that is possibly worth less than that is against my religion. The play itself was worth 100.15% or thereabouts --- plus one-time-only matching offer of seed money plus an unknown amount (when I was making the play) of comps and mailers.
For it to make sense I would have to believe that using the strategy would improve my mailers in the future by more than $2,500. I'm nowhere close to believing that. Whether or not it "would have been true" is unknowable.
bob
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Isn't this alternative strategy discussion worth a column or two? Excuse me if it is in the archives already. I promise not to complain if i don't like the column.
Rich
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Bob, I'll intercede for NOTI and note that you've misread his reply ...
In short, he would never suggest it was worth giving up 0.4% ER on an alternate strategy.
He indicated that using min-loss strategy, you would expect to be AHEAD 50 cents per hand vs playing max-EV strategy.
The offset to this is you lengthen the RF cycle, with some offsetting ER cost. The net of these two impacts is typically a thin shave to overall ER, in exchange for the bankroll preservation benefit.
I don't knpw the specifics offhand, but expect the net ER cost on the 5000 hand session you suggest is more in the magnitude of $250-$500, not $2500 ... with the benefit of an expectation of coming away with $2500 more on any non-RF hit session.
Since I believe you are well bankrolled for $25 play, and engage in it with not insignificant frequency, I don't think the strategy is advisable for you.
But the gist of the strategy does have its attractions.
- H.
---In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, <bobdancervp@...> wrote :
50 cents a hand times 5000 hands means I would give up $2,500 playing the min Royal strategy. I agree it's a matter of opinion --- but to me that's clearly significant. Voluntarily giving up 0.4% on a play that is possibly worth less than that is against my religion. The play itself was worth 100.15% or thereabouts --- plus one-time-only matching offer of seed money plus an unknown amount (when I was making the play) of comps and mailers.
For it to make sense I would have to believe that using the strategy would improve my mailers in the future by more than $2,500. I'm nowhere close to believing that. Whether or not it "would have been true" is unknowable.
bob
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[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
Rich asked: Isn't this alternative strategy discussion worth a column or two? Excuse
me if it is in the archives already. I promise not to complain if i
don't like the column.
Thanx for the suggestion, but I'll pass. Before I write about something, I need to know more about it than I do about this subject.
Right now I don't know enough know whether "this is great---go for it" or "this is a load of B.S. Avoid it at all costs" is the right thing for me to recommend. All I can say is I personally use the maxEV strategy for everything except tournaments, and there I usually use some sort of "maxRoyal + Max aces" strategy. Is that the best thing for me to be doing? I'm not positive, but obviously I'm putting my money where my mouth is and doing what I preach.
I really have no more to add. Maybe someday I'll understand them better and be able to explain well why I do or don't use them. And who should or should not use them.
Bob
.
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In a video poker tournament I go for a max quad, max royal strategy. A.P.
From: "nightoftheiguana2000@yahoo.com [vpFREE]" <vpFREE@yahoogroups.com>
To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
Sent: Wednesday, November 19, 2014 5:38 PM
Subject: Re: [vpFREE] Bob Dancer's LVA - 18 NOV 2014
AP wrote: "For a recreational player it is hard enough to master one strategy, to try and add a second one is inviting mistakes ..."
Would you use or recommend maxEV strategy for a video poker tournament? If so you are likely at a significant disadvantage as maxRoyal strategy is almost always the correct strategy in that situation (play each hand to maximize chance of hitting a royal).
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Bob wrote: "50 cents a hand times 5000 hands means I would give up $2,500 playing the min Royal strategy."
You would GAIN $2,500 with minRoyal, simply because you are optimizing the return of the non-Royal hands. In the long run maxEV pulls ahead because it generates more royals. In the short run minRoyal is ahead because it optimizes the return of the non-Royal hands. If there is any additional incentive for getting less royals, such as the play lasts longer or mailers accrue, this would be additional credit for minRoyal as well. If the additional incentives are enough, then minRoyal wins in the long term as well.
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AP wrote: "In a video poker tournament I go for a max quad, max royal strategy."
Would you alter your strategy for a loss rebate?
Would you alter your strategy for a matchplay coupon?
The wizard suggests that you should:
Promotional, Match-Play, and Non-Negotiable Chips - Wizard of Odds http://wizardofodds.com/gambling/promotional-chips/
http://wizardofodds.com/gambling/promotional-chips/
Promotional, Match-Play, and Non-Negotiable Chips - Wiz... http://wizardofodds.com/gambling/promotional-chips/ The Wizard of Odds gives on the value and strategy of Promotional, Match-Play, and Non-Negotiable Chips .
View on wizardofo... http://wizardofodds.com/gambling/promotional-chips/
Preview by Yahoo
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I would play more aggressively on a loss rebate promotion. I've never seen a matchplay coupon for video poker. A.P.
From: "nightoftheiguana2000@yahoo.com [vpFREE]" <vpFREE@yahoogroups.com>
To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
Sent: Thursday, November 20, 2014 12:32 PM
Subject: Re: [vpFREE] Bob Dancer's LVA - 18 NOV 2014
AP wrote: "In a video poker tournament I go for a max quad, max royal strategy."
Would you alter your strategy for a loss rebate?
Would you alter your strategy for a matchplay coupon?
The wizard suggests that you should:
Promotional, Match-Play, and Non-Negotiable Chips - Wizard of Odds http://wizardofodds.com/gambling/promotional-chips/
http://wizardofodds.com/gambling/promotional-chips/
Promotional, Match-Play, and Non-Negotiable Chips - Wiz... http://wizardofodds.com/gambling/promotional-chips/ The Wizard of Odds gives on the value and strategy of Promotional, Match-Play, and Non-Negotiable Chips .
View on wizardofo... http://wizardofodds.com/gambling/promotional-chips/
Preview by Yahoo
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