Bob Dancer's LVA - 11 NOV 2014
My Adventure at the SLS --- Part 1 of 2
http://www.lasvegasadvisor.com/bob_dancer/2014/1111.cfm
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Would have been a good spot for min-cost strategy. The play was likely over at the first royal, perhaps even before then. If a royal wasn't hit, mailers were likely. Likely you could have negotiated a rebate on your markers, again if a royal wasn't hit. This is a clear situation where in the end you wish to hit a royal, but it's +EV to delay the money shot as long as possible. All these point to min-cost-royal strategy.
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That strategy might be O.K. if you thought the play was going to stay around for a long time. Historically a lot of casinos that open up with good games and promotions pull them fairly quickly. As much as I hate to admit it, the play it till it's gone strategy is probably the best move.
A.P.
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From: "nightoftheiguana2000@yahoo.com [vpFREE]" <vpFREE@yahoogroups.com>
To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
Sent: Wednesday, November 12, 2014 3:24 PM
Subject: [vpFREE] Re: Bob Dancer's LVA - 11 NOV 2014
Would have been a good spot for min-cost strategy. The play was likely over at the first royal, perhaps even before then. If a royal wasn't hit, mailers were likely. Likely you could have negotiated a rebate on your markers, again if a royal wasn't hit. This is a clear situation where in the end you wish to hit a royal, but it's +EV to delay the money shot as long as possible. All these point to min-cost-royal strategy.
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AP wrote: "That strategy might be O.K. if you thought the play was going to stay around for a long time."
For infinite time, maxEV is the optimal strategy. For "a long time", say many royal cycles, or well over N0, maxEV is probably still the optimal strategy. For a royal cycle or less, min-cost-strategies are typically optimal. With min-cost-strategies you are simply optimizing the return of the hands you are likely to get in a limited time frame.
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So what do you do if you don't know how long the opportunity will be around ?
A.P.
________________________________
From: "nightoftheiguana2000@yahoo.com [vpFREE]" <vpFREE@yahoogroups.com>
To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
Sent: Wednesday, November 12, 2014 5:46 PM
Subject: Re: [vpFREE] Re: Bob Dancer's LVA - 11 NOV 2014
AP wrote: "That strategy might be O.K. if you thought the play was going to stay around for a long time."
For infinite time, maxEV is the optimal strategy. For "a long time", say many royal cycles, or well over N0, maxEV is probably still the optimal strategy. For a royal cycle or less, min-cost-strategies are typically optimal. With min-cost-strategies you are simply optimizing the return of the hands you are likely to get in a limited time frame.
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AP wrote: "So what do you do if you don't know how long the opportunity will be around ?"
It would probably be prudent to assume the worst. You might be pleasantly surprised, but I sure wouldn't count on it.
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