Bob Dancer's LVA - 10 MAR 2015
False Conclusions
http://www.lasvegasadvisor.com/bob_dancer/2015/0310.cfm
*************************************************
This link is posted for informational purposes
and doesn't constitute an endorsement or approval
of the linked article's content by vpFREE. Any
discussion of the article must be done in
accordance with vpFREE's rules and policies.
*************************************************
Basic human psychology causes us to look for explanations in all things. An old Latin saying ‘ Post hoc ergo propter hoc’
which translated is ‘After this therefore because of this’ . The human brain can’t help but look for cause and effect. The trick
is to determine if the relationship is correct or incorrect, hence the development of the scientific method of analysis, and the development of logic.
Regards
A.P.
From: mailto:vpF…@…com
Sent: Tuesday, March 10, 2015 1:29 PM
To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
Subject: [vpFREE] Bob Dancer's LVA - 10 MAR 2015
Bob Dancer's LVA - 10 MAR 2015
False Conclusions
http://www.lasvegasadvisor.com/bob_dancer/2015/0310.cfm
*************************************************
This link is posted for informational purposes
and doesn't constitute an endorsement or approval
of the linked article's content by vpFREE. Any
discussion of the article must be done in
accordance with vpFREE's rules and policies.
*************************************************
[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
I would also suggest that the memory plays further tricks on a player in inverse proportion to the value of the "close, but no cigar" hand. How many 4 to a royals do we get? I would posit that in 'remembering' them, one might easily include hands that end up with 4 to a royal AFTER the draw as well as those where we're dealt the 4 to a royal. Obviously after the draw hands never had a chance to become royals, because the hand is already over. But the sight of the K-Q-J-10 still burns into the brain.
OR the "I never draw the kicker when I am dealt four Aces in DDB". First of all, how often are we dealt the quad A's? And when we do get them, it's only a bit over 25% chance to get a 2,3 or 4. But the sight of the Aces sears into our brain, as though you were dealt them 2 or 3 times a session.
Certainly the game is rigged. Don’t let that stop you; if you don’t bet, you can’t win. -Lazarus Long
In theory, there is no difference between theory and practice. But, in practice, there is. -Yogi Berra
There is no such thing as luck. There is only adequate or inadequate preparation to cope with a statistical universe. -Robert Heinlein
________________________________
From: "vpFREE3355 vpfree3355@gmail.com [vpFREE]" <vpFREE@yahoogroups.com>
To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
Sent: Tuesday, March 10, 2015 1:29 PM
Subject: [vpFREE] Bob Dancer's LVA - 10 MAR 2015
Bob Dancer's LVA - 10 MAR 2015
False Conclusions
http://www.lasvegasadvisor.com/bob_dancer/2015/0310.cfm
*************************************************
This link is posted for informational purposes
and doesn't constitute an endorsement or approval
of the linked article's content by vpFREE. Any
discussion of the article must be done in
accordance with vpFREE's rules and policies.
*************************************************
[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
Bob wrote: "For three days in a row you play one hour of $1 NSU video poker at the Gold Coast and each day you lose. On each of those days you immediately walk across the street and play one hour of $1 NSU video poker at the Palms and win. On the fourth day, you have time for only one hour of play at one of these casinos. Which one is the smarter play for you?"
That's probably not a statistically significant dataset, you need at least 5x524=2620 hands to begin to get some clarity on the dirty royal, but if it were it could be an indication that it's easier to play the Palms machines accurately while something about the Gold Coast machines is causing you to make more errors. Keep in mind there are two types of errors: those you spot just after you committed to the play, and those you never even saw but were there none the less. It's true there is a GTO (Game Theory Optimal) solution to video poker, but it's unlikely anyone can actually execute it flawlessly in the casino environment and it's also likely that error rates differ from casino to casino depending on the distractions employed against you and the condition (new or old, well maintained or poorly maintained) of the machines.
[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]