Bob Dancer's LVA - 1 JUL 2014
How Often Do You Win a Hand?
http://www.lasvegasadvisor.com/bob_dancer/2014/0701.cfm
*************************************************
This link is posted for informational purposes
and doesn't constitute an endorsement or approval
of the linked article's content by vpFREE. Any
discussion of the article must be done in
accordance with vpFREE's rules and policies.
*************************************************
Fascinating article. I enjoyed it. Sounds like there might be some more work to be done here. I mean, what should the multi strategies be? There’s probably no (any?) easy answer to that.
On Jul 1, 2014, at 10:01 AM, “vpFREE3355 vpfree3…@…com [vpFREE]” <vpF…@…com> wrote:
Bob Dancer’s LVA - 1 JUL 2014
How Often Do You Win a Hand?
http://www.lasvegasadvisor.com/bob_dancer/2014/0701.cfm
This link is posted for informational purposes
and doesn’t constitute an endorsement or approval
of the linked article’s content by vpFREE. Any
discussion of the article must be done in
accordance with vpFREE’s rules and policies.
Like he said in the article the strategies never change. Everything is based on the infinite long term.
What changes is the dependencies on the "dealt in " hands.
When you play a single line game a dealt in Royal has the same value and impact of a royal that you draw.
If you are playing 100 play an individual royal is almost insignificant. It has roughly the same value as a dealt in full house.
A dealt in royal is highly significant on multi line games and the more lines played the more significant that becomes.
Many times when playing 50 or 100 play machines in order to reduce the swings of the game I end up accomplishing the opposite because of a lack of dealt in hands. It is a puzzlement.
A.P.
From: “funny.young…@…com [vpFREE]” <vpF…@…com>
To: “vpF…@…com” <vpF…@…com>
Sent: Tuesday, July 1, 2014 1:15:30 PM
Subject: Re: [vpFREE] Bob Dancer’s LVA - 1 JUL 2014
Fascinating article. I enjoyed it. Sounds like there might be some more work to be done here. I mean, what should the multi strategies be? There’s probably no (any?) easy answer to that.
On Jul 1, 2014, at 10:01 AM, “vpFREE3355 vpfree3…@…com [vpFREE]” <vpF…@…com> wrote:
Bob Dancer’s LVA - 1 JUL 2014
How Often Do You Win a Hand?
http://www.lasvegasadvisor.com/bob_dancer/2014/0701.cfm
This link is posted for informational purposes
and doesn’t constitute an endorsement or approval
of the linked article’s content by vpFREE. Any
discussion of the article must be done in
accordance with vpFREE’s rules and policies.
That can’t be right. Either there are alternates or the article is poorly written. The article mentions HOW MUCH and HOW OFTEN you win (emphasis by article author).
What else has that? Aren’t those the same elements you need for EV calculations??? 
So I took it to mean that there may be alternate strategies out there for this. If you look at it from a traditional poker perspective, the article implies that “outs” matter. Having 8 outs (open ended straight) may be more valuable than a straight flush draw with one out.
I’m not saying that’s the answer, just an example. But the article clearly implies that there are alternates out there.
On Jul 1, 2014, at 10:34 AM, “Albert Pearson eh…@…com [vpFREE]” <vpF…@…com> wrote:
Like he said in the article the strategies never change. Everything is based on the infinite long term.
What changes is the dependencies on the "dealt in " hands.
When you play a single line game a dealt in Royal has the same value and impact of a royal that you draw.
If you are playing 100 play an individual royal is almost insignificant. It has roughly the same value as a dealt in full house.
A dealt in royal is highly significant on multi line games and the more lines played the more significant that becomes.
Many times when playing 50 or 100 play machines in order to reduce the swings of the game I end up accomplishing the opposite because of a lack of dealt in hands. It is a puzzlement.
A.P.
From: “funny.young…@…com [vpFREE]” <vpF…@…com>
To: “vpF…@…com” <vpF…@…com>
Sent: Tuesday, July 1, 2014 1:15:30 PM
Subject: Re: [vpFREE] Bob Dancer’s LVA - 1 JUL 2014
Fascinating article. I enjoyed it. Sounds like there might be some more work to be done here. I mean, what should the multi strategies be? There’s probably no (any?) easy answer to that.
On Jul 1, 2014, at 10:01 AM, “vpFREE3355 vpfree3…@…com [vpFREE]” <vpF…@…com> wrote:
Bob Dancer’s LVA - 1 JUL 2014
How Often Do You Win a Hand?
http://www.lasvegasadvisor.com/bob_dancer/2014/0701.cfm
This link is posted for informational purposes
and doesn’t constitute an endorsement or approval
of the linked article’s content by vpFREE. Any
discussion of the article must be done in
accordance with vpFREE’s rules and policies.
The how much and how often determine how well you will do on any given day, but over the infinite long run it doesn’t make any difference to the E.V. of the game, but it would have an effect on the volatility of the game especially in the short term.
All you need to know for calculating the E.V. of a game is the paytable.
The outs matter, they tell you what the odds are of completing a
specific hand. The thing is that knowing the odds only impacts the proper way of playing each individual hand. i.e. the odds determine the strategy for the game.
I have been reading Bob Dancer’s articles for a long time and it all made sense to me. You may want to delve deeper into the vpFREE
resources section and read some of the technical articles there. You may find the one’s on Jazbo’s site to be enlightening.
Regards
A.P.
From: “funny.young…@…com [vpFREE]” <vpF…@…com>
To: “vpF…@…com” <vpF…@…com>
Sent: Tuesday, July 1, 2014 1:58:12 PM
Subject: Re: [vpFREE] Bob Dancer’s LVA - 1 JUL 2014
That can’t be right. Either there are alternates or the article is poorly written. The article mentions HOW MUCH and HOW OFTEN you win (emphasis by article author).
What else has that? Aren’t those the same elements you need for EV calculations???
So I took it to mean that there may be alternate strategies out there for this. If you look at it from a traditional poker perspective, the article implies that “outs” matter. Having 8 outs (open ended straight) may be more valuable than a straight flush draw with one out.
I’m not saying that’s the answer, just an example.
But the article clearly implies that there are alternates out
there.
On Jul 1, 2014, at 10:34 AM, “Albert Pearson eh…@…com [vpFREE]” <vpF…@…com> wrote:
Like he said in the article the strategies never change. Everything is based on the infinite long term.
What changes is the dependencies on the "dealt in " hands.
When you play a single line game a
dealt in Royal has the same value and impact of a
royal that you draw.
If you are playing 100 play an individual royal is almost insignificant. It has roughly the same value as a dealt in full house.
A dealt in royal is highly significant on multi line games and the more lines played the more significant that becomes.
Many times when playing 50 or 100 play machines in order to reduce the swings of the game I end up accomplishing the opposite because of a lack of dealt in hands. It is a puzzlement.
A.P.
From: “funny.young…@…com [vpFREE]” <vpF…@…com>
To: “vpF…@…com” <vpF…@…com>
Sent: Tuesday, July 1, 2014 1:15:30 PM
Subject: Re: [vpFREE] Bob Dancer’s LVA - 1 JUL 2014
Fascinating article. I enjoyed it. Sounds like there might be some more work to be done here. I mean, what should the multi strategies be? There’s probably no (any?) easy answer to that.
On Jul 1, 2014, at 10:01 AM, “vpFREE3355 vpfree3…@…com [vpFREE]” <vpF…@…com> wrote:
Bob Dancer’s LVA - 1 JUL 2014
How Often Do You Win a Hand?
http://www.lasvegasadvisor.com/bob_dancer/2014/0701.cfm
This link is posted for informational purposes
and doesn’t constitute an endorsement or approval
of the linked article’s content by vpFREE. Any
discussion of the article must be done in
accordance with vpFREE’s rules and policies.
Of course there are alternative strategies:
http://www.west-point.org/users/usma1955/20228/V/FAQ_S.htm
Betting Systems - Specific Games and Systems - Wizard of Odds
Betting Systems - Specific Games and Systems - Wiza…
The Wizard of Odds answers readers’ questions about Betting Systems.
Preview by Yahoo
:
“So, I maintain that in some situations, indeed, you should go against optimal strategy and go for the more conservative play. I just hope Rob
Singer doesn’t hear about this.”
noti, if you assume that you’re playing with a max-EV goal, the statement that there are no alternate strategies (specific instance cied here is single line play vs multi) is correct.
Alternare strategies (reflecting alternate goals) always can come into play. However, it’s my experience that reasonable opportunities for alternate strategy play (of significant magnitude) are few and far between formosr typical players.
vp_wiz wrote: “However, it’s my experience that reasonable opportunities for alternate
strategy play (of significant magnitude) are few and far between formosr typical players.”
The “typical player” (if there even is such a thing) probably underestimates the bankroll and time requirements needed to grind out a reasonable portion of the theoretical EV. These people would be better served by the Kelly system and min-cost strategies for progressives, imho. MaxEV is really only for those with substantial bankrolls and substantial playing plans (like over 2000 hours/year at at least 1000 HPH for video poker). As a general rule. There are always exceptions, there are always plays with juicy edges and low variance where MaxEV likely applies even for those with modest bankroll and playing plans. But as a general rule I think it would be a mistake to just assume MaxEV is the best fit, especially in today’s environment of tighter and tighter games.
Scot or anyone:
“Thurs: Mystery 5-50x” – Is this correct for July? I don’t see it in my mailer or anywhere else except on Scot’s list.
On my mailer calendar I do have 11x/7x for July 4. I wonder if that is for everyone? For Locals only? Or, just for people who have it on their mailer?
Jean $¢ott, Frugal Gambler
http://queenofcomps.com/
You can read my blog at
http://jscott.lvablog.com/
Harry wrote:
it's my experience that reasonable opportunities for alternate strategy play (of significant magnitude) are few and far between formosr typical players.
I agree, although I'm surprised at the conceptual problems some very
experienced players have. I was sitting next to one such player on a
progressive recently and he had a hand for which the progressive was
just a few dollars over the amount that made drawing to the
progressive or not the same expected value, so, for the sake of making
the "right" play, he drew to the progressive. Without mentioning the
added fluctuation of drawing to the progressive, which might have
meant that he didn't have the bankroll to make the draw, I asked him
if he would regard the cost to him of the meter resetting to be
greater than the cost to him of not drawing to the progressive when
the meter indicated in that situation and he said it would. But the
magnitude of the difference in value wasn't very significant and the
frequency with which taking such reasons not to draw to a progressive
into account would dictate a different strategy from "max-EV" is low.
There was a team a few decades ago that locked up many progressives
they played and the progressives had huge meter movement. I estimated
their "max-EV" strategy cost them 5 figures per year.
Thanks for the heads up! I see I copied that wrong and will have to take it down. Here’s the actual promotion:
$600,000 Freedom to Roam Mystery Entries
· Participants may receive mystery multiplier bonus entries each Thursday that they swipe their B Connected card at the kiosk July 3rd, July 10th, July 17th, and July 24, 2014.
· Bonus entries must be activated in the same manner as earned entries and can range from 5X to 50X.
From: vpF…@…com [mailto:vpF…@…com]
Sent: Thursday, July 03, 2014 11:52 AM
To: vpF…@…com
Subject: [vpFREE] Gold Coast Promos
Scot or anyone:
“Thurs: Mystery 5-50x” – Is this correct for July? I don’t see it in my mailer or anywhere else except on Scot’s list.
On my mailer calendar I do have 11x/7x for July 4. I wonder if that is for everyone? For Locals only? Or, just for people who have it on their mailer?
Jean $¢ott, Frugal Gambler
http://queenofcomps.com/
You can read my blog at
http://jscott.lvablog.com/
Thanx, Scot, now that makes sense that only the number of entries are eligible for being multiplied – not your points!!!
Do you have any info about the multiple points for tomorrow? All properties? Just locals???
Jean $¢ott, Frugal Gambler
http://queenofcomps.com/
You can read my blog at
http://jscott.lvablog.com/
From: mailto:vpF…@…com
Sent: Thursday, July 03, 2014 5:33 PM
To: vpF…@…com
Subject: RE: [vpFREE] Gold Coast Promos
Thanks for the heads up! I see I copied that wrong and will have to take it down. Here’s the actual promotion:
$600,000 Freedom to Roam Mystery Entries
· Participants may receive mystery multiplier bonus entries each Thursday that they swipe their B Connected card at the kiosk July 3rd, July 10th, July 17th, and July 24, 2014.
· Bonus entries must be activated in the same manner as earned entries and can range from 5X to 50X.
From: vpF…@…com [mailto:vpF…@…com]
Sent: Thursday, July 03, 2014 11:52 AM
To:
vpF…@…com
Subject: [vpFREE] Gold Coast Promos
Scot or anyone:
“Thurs: Mystery 5-50x” – Is this correct for July? I don’t see it in my mailer or anywhere else except on Scot’s list.
On my mailer calendar I do have 11x/7x for July 4. I wonder if that is for everyone? For Locals only? Or, just for people who have it on their mailer?
Jean $¢ott, Frugal Gambler
http://queenofcomps.com/
You can read my blog at
http://jscott.lvablog.com/
Sometimes they don’t tell me everything in advance. They like to keep their “secrets” from their competitors. But Suncoast is running this:
Tuesdays & Thursday - 12X Reels & 7X Video Poker
Wednesdays - Mystery Multipliers - Up to 50X
4th of July Special
No point max on points earned!
Before you play…Visit any kiosk to activate your point multiplier
From: vpF…@…com [mailto:vpF…@…com]
Sent: Thursday, July 03, 2014 7:09 PM
To: vpF…@…com
Subject: Re: [vpFREE] Gold Coast Promos
Thanx, Scot, now that makes sense that only the number of entries are eligible for being multiplied – not your points!!!
Do you have any info about the multiple points for tomorrow? All properties? Just locals???
Jean $¢ott, Frugal Gambler
http://queenofcomps.com/
You can read my blog at
http://jscott.lvablog.com/
From: mailto:vpF…@…com
Sent: Thursday, July 03, 2014 5:33 PM
To: vpF…@…com
Subject: RE: [vpFREE] Gold Coast Promos
Thanks for the heads up! I see I copied that wrong and will have to take it down. Here’s the actual promotion:
$600,000 Freedom to Roam Mystery Entries
· Participants may receive mystery multiplier bonus entries each Thursday that they swipe their B Connected card at the kiosk July 3rd, July 10th, July 17th, and July 24, 2014.
· Bonus entries must be activated in the same manner as earned entries and can range from 5X to 50X.
From: vpF…@…com [mailto:vpF…@…com]
Sent: Thursday, July 03, 2014 11:52 AM
To: vpF…@…com
Subject: [vpFREE] Gold Coast Promos
Scot or anyone:
“Thurs: Mystery 5-50x” – Is this correct for July? I don’t see it in my mailer or anywhere else except on Scot’s list.
On my mailer calendar I do have 11x/7x for July 4. I wonder if that is for everyone? For Locals only? Or, just for people who have it on their mailer?
Jean $¢ott, Frugal Gambler
http://queenofcomps.com/
You can read my blog at
http://jscott.lvablog.com/
noti – No doubt, to some extent, my comments betray my own bias.
I’m a very conservative player. There’s no question that were I to tackle higher risk progressive (say, one that presented a ror of 5%+ for the bankroll I were willing to “throw” at it), a min-cost strategy is very appropriate.
However, for 90%-95% of my play these days, I’m playing my bankroll within a 1% ror. The advantages of alternate strategies in bankroll preservation are nominal, at best, and (frankly) of no added value to me.
Admittedly, the “typical” player is ill-defined. But I assert that for the player who isn’t 99.95%+ proficient in their play, alternate strategies are an undesirable distraction from key basics of play.
vp_wiz wrote: “However, for 90%-95% of my play these days, I’m playing my bankroll within a 1% ror.”
Are you sure? Just off the top of my head, you’re talking about 10x Kelly to get a 1% ror. Kelly on $5 jacks plus 1% would be about $25 x 19.5 / 0.5% = $97,500. 10x that would be about a million. You have that kind of bankroll?
007 wrote: “There was a team a few decades ago that locked up many progressives
they played and the progressives had huge meter movement. I estimated
their “max-EV” strategy cost them 5 figures per year.”
A similar idea to think about: say there is a casino with a juicy mailer but they no mail you as soon as you get a royal. Clearly the min-royal strategy (not maxEV) would get the most money in that case.
That’s only one way to calculate ROR. Just taking a sniff at it 3 standard deviations (99.96%) would not be a million in even the highest variance games
On Jul 4, 2014, at 11:50 AM, “nightoftheiguana2…@…com [vpFREE]” <vpF…@…com> wrote:
vp_wiz wrote: “However, for 90%-95% of my play these days, I’m playing my bankroll within a 1% ror.”
Are you sure? Just off the top of my head, you’re talking about 10x Kelly to get a 1% ror. Kelly on $5 jacks plus 1% would be about $25 x 19.5 / 0.5% = $97,500. 10x that would be about a million. You have that kind of bankroll?
funny.young.guy wrote: "Just taking a sniff at it 3 standard deviations (99.96%) would not be a million in even the highest variance games "
$sd=betsize x sqrt(variance x hands)
3 x $25 x sqrt(100 x 2 million hands) = $1.06 million
NOTI wrote " Just off the top of my head, you’re talking about 10x Kelly to get a 1% ror. Kelly on $5 jacks plus 1% would be about $25 x 19.5 / 0.5% = $97,500. 10x that would be about a million. "
NOTI where is that “10x Kelly” coming from? $5 Jacks plus 1% (as in cashback) would require just $181K for a 1% RoR. (using the jazbo-Sorokin equation)
–Dunbar
—In vpF…@…com, <nightoftheiguana2000@…> wrote :
vp_wiz wrote: “However, for 90%-95% of my play these days, I’m playing my bankroll within a 1% ror.”
Are you sure? Just off the top of my head, you’re talking about 10x Kelly to get a 1% ror. Kelly on $5 jacks plus 1% would be about $25 x 19.5 / 0.5% = $97,500. 10x that would be about a million. You have that kind of bankroll?
noti, I wrote that I play conservatively. Less than 5% of my coin-in is at $5 denom ( I have, however, been fortunate in that play).
As far an edge: “jacks + 1%”? Don’t make me laugh. Yes, sometimes I’ll go that thin … but it’s truly the exception.
—In vpF…@…com, <nightoftheiguana2000@…> wrote :
vp_wiz wrote: “However, for 90%-95% of my play these days, I’m playing my bankroll within a 1% ror.”
Are you sure? Just off the top of my head, you’re talking about 10x Kelly to get a 1% ror. Kelly on $5 jacks plus 1% would be about $25 x 19.5 / 0.5% = $97,500. 10x that would be about a million. You have that kind of bankroll?