Bob Dancer's LVA - 1 DEC 2015
A Response to Dennis Krum's Devolution of Gaming Theory
http://www.lasvegasadvisor.com/bob_dancer/2015/1201.cfm
*************************************************
This link is posted for informational purposes
and doesn't constitute an endorsement or approval
of the linked article's content by vpFREE. Any
discussion of the article must be done in
accordance with vpFREE's rules and policies.
*************************************************
I remember the Richard Brodie incident at Caesar's. He had a blog about his gambling escapades on the internet. He was Microsoft #7 at the time and the inventer of Microsoft Word. In his blog he said he requested that Caesars put in a couple of 3-coin hundred dollars machines. He didn't say whether he requested FPDW or even deuces wild. It is still a point of contention today whether he requested FPDW or not. I personally think it was a technician's error on a multi-game machine.
Brodie actually hit two royals on those machines in a couple of days. He had also hit two other high paying royals on Harrah's machines that year, 2007. In his blog he said he later received a letter from Harrah's barring him from all Harrah's properties which interfered with his ability to play in the WSOP. With support from other poker players Harrah's agreed to let him play.
But in his blog I believe he said that many other high rollers had received such letters from Harrah's. And when questioned about it Harrah's said they simply couldn't figure out how to make money off these players with the comps they were getting. Brodie admitted that he had lost a lot of money at video poker on Harrah's properties in past years. But when he got himself over royaled they 86'd him.
This wasn't very smart on Harrah's part. Cut back the comps, change the payscales, even revoke a players card. But give them the opportunity to keep playing.
[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
I think the answer lies somewhere between the extremes. There aren't any casinos left that have so many loose machines that they are losing. There are a lot of casinos with extremely tight machines wondering where their customers have gone, There are a lot of casinos that are so tight with the comps that also wonder where their clients have gone.
The successful casino is the one that balances the quality of the games and comps to achieve a balance that attracts lots of players that are willing to give them action because they are treated fairly, while still earning a reasonable profit.
The real work comes in finding those casinos.
Regards
A.P.
________________________________
From: "vpFREE3355 vpfree3355@gmail.com [vpFREE]" <vpFREE@yahoogroups.com>
To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
Sent: Tuesday, December 1, 2015 1:14 PM
Subject: [vpFREE] Bob Dancer's LVA - 1 DEC 2015
Bob Dancer's LVA - 1 DEC 2015
A Response to Dennis Krum's Devolution of Gaming Theory
http://www.lasvegasadvisor.com/bob_dancer/2015/1201.cfm
*************************************************
This link is posted for informational purposes
and doesn't constitute an endorsement or approval
of the linked article's content by vpFREE. Any
discussion of the article must be done in
accordance with vpFREE's rules and policies.
*************************************************
Mickey wrote: "Brodie admitted that he had lost a lot of money at video poker on Harrah's properties in past years. But when he got himself over royaled they 86'd him. This wasn't very smart on Harrah's part."
No, it was stupid. They should have changed the FPDW to NSU Deuces and Brodie and others might have kept playing. If Harrahs wasn't happy with the NSU Deuces results (it appears today they are not at most of their casinos), they should switch to Airport Deuces, of course at that point at lot of people will probably choose to play Airport Deuces at the Airport and cut out the Harrah's nonsense entirely, or choose to play NSU Deuces at Dotty's, or move to Montana like Mickey.
[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
Briefly, Krum's simplistic assumptions don't work for me. My explanation for the inventory/promotion tightenings we've witnessed is straightforward ....
Ten years ago, in any given casino, on a good promotion day it wasn't unusual to find the best banks dominated by reasonably strong "advantage" players (with hapless "ploppies" frustrated they couldn't get a seat). Casinos often witnessed plummeting holds on such banks, all the more troubling to them once promotion cost was factored. A rational mind would expect something to change.
"Advantage" play is far more challenging today, and it takes a more motivated player to be successful. Speaking for myself, I'm finding play a lot more satisfying these days.
[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
My analysis is the casinos make 2 classic mistakes. First of all they use a shotgun approach rather than a rifle approach. The should target the high stakes advantage gamblers! Sorry Bob. At paytables of .25 and less they will never get burnt because of the low jackpots, churn of novice and bad players and the lack advantages players working the machines, since it is not worth their time. They are also worshipers of higher percentages regardless of the size of the pie. The object is to grow the pie! Not shrink it.
To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
From: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
Date: Wed, 2 Dec 2015 07:24:51 -0800
Subject: [vpFREE] Re: Bob Dancer's LVA - 1 DEC 2015
Briefly, Krum's simplistic assumptions don't work for me. My explanation for the inventory/promotion tightenings we've witnessed is straightforward ....
Ten years ago, in any given casino, on a good promotion day it wasn't unusual to find the best banks dominated by reasonably strong "advantage" players (with hapless "ploppies" frustrated they couldn't get a seat). Casinos often witnessed plummeting holds on such banks, all the more troubling to them once promotion cost was factored. A rational mind would expect something to change.
"Advantage" play is far more challenging today, and it takes a more motivated player to be successful. Speaking for myself, I'm finding play a lot more satisfying these days.
[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
VP
I have to agree with you. Without Ethel from Idaho to prime the pump of these machines the rest of the story falls apart. I do like the part about a casino being a middle man taking a cut of the transaction but both parties have to be taken care of in the transaction.
Rich
[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
I think a lot of casinos keep the denoms low to keep the heavy AVP players away. Places like CZR don't want to give up the big denom players so they just killed the comps.
The only time I ever saw all the $1+ FB JOB taken in AC was during 10X pts or better. OK you could get one of the horrid seats in the main room of Showboat but that was about it.
[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
Ken wrote: "The[y] should target the high stakes advantage gamblers! Sorry Bob. At paytables of .25 and less they will never get burnt because of the low jackpots..."
The problem with low denomination machines is the comp hustling, not everyone can play video poker at computer perfect levels, but just about everyone knows they should try to extract as much from the casino as possible and keep asking until they get a yes. The "resort casinos" have too many "amenities" and can't win enough from the low denomination machines to cover costs. Low denomination machines are of course fine at the airport and other low overhead casinos.
[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
You make some good points but I don't see a lot of comp hustling. I know many people who enjoy playing a hour or so at various casinos. In addition the costs of the comps is very small! Its a good deal for the gambler if they were to pay retail. For instance CET will comp a room they could not sell, and charge you the resort fee. Here is another example, my son is playing with me at a casino with FP VP and he complains after an hour that he lost $15, I saw that he had 6 drinks, so I said "you are killing the casino", he was drinking a premium liquor.However those drinks were only costing the casino $1 and he was paying part of the salary of the CW by tipping. There was a meeting last year in which the casinos executive were lamenting the comps that they were giving the Asian whales and their entourages! I wonder how the pioneers of this industry made any money when they more generous with comps and a skim was part of their costs.
To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
From: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
Date: Thu, 3 Dec 2015 14:06:54 -0800
Subject: RE: [vpFREE] Re: Bob Dancer's LVA - 1 DEC 2015
Ken wrote: "The[y] should target the high stakes advantage gamblers! Sorry Bob. At paytables of .25 and less they will never get burnt because of the low jackpots..."
The problem with low denomination machines is the comp hustling, not everyone can play video poker at computer perfect levels, but just about everyone knows they should try to extract as much from the casino as possible and keep asking until they get a yes. The "resort casinos" have too many "amenities" and can't win enough from the low denomination machines to cover costs. Low denomination machines are of course fine at the airport and other low overhead casinos.
[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
Ken wrote: "I wonder how the pioneers of this industry made any money when they more generous with comps and a skim was part of their costs."
Before 65 they used real silver dollars and quarters. And I'm just taking a wild guess but I think one of these same silver quarters today goes for about $5 with a silver dollar going for about $20. There were probably some nickel machines, but I doubt the casinos were generous with the comps on those. I'm thinking the San Francisco Liberty Bells used nickels. Also, they didn't use expensive carpet, instead they used sawdust like in a horse barn.
[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
Sound like you missed out on the play at Bally's about a decade ago. For close to 2 years, they regularly offered 1%(+) incentives on FPJB w/ .6% cb.
Closest thing I've seen to that situation was a tv show where chum was thrown in the water as shark bait.
---In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, <cdgnpc@...> wrote :
I think a lot of casinos keep the denoms low to keep the heavy AVP players away. Places like CZR don't want to give up the big denom players so they just killed the comps.
The only time I ever saw all the $1+ FB JOB taken in AC was during 10X pts or better. OK you could get one of the horrid seats in the main room of Showboat but that was about it.
[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
Just another observation: So before 65 you could play tablegames with a minimum bet of a silver quarter. Today, most minimum bets at tablegames are $5 and the casino is probably losing money on the overhead if that's all you bet. But, tablegames have at least adjusted for inflation. Interestingly, the slots have not. Adjusted for inflation, presumably you wouldn't see many slots with a minimum bet less than $5, but instead, many slots are in penny and nickel denominations. I know TITO has reduced labor costs, but the machines and TITO cashout boxes and card tracking software are more expensive. I wonder where the crossover is, but surely if all you bet is one penny, the casino isn't even covering it's overhead.
[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
A penny in 65 got you a full jackpot. Today a penny gets you nothing in fact 27 pennies get you nothing! Could be some drink hustling? But it's like betting only a .1 is very rare.
To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
From: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
Date: Sat, 5 Dec 2015 13:10:06 -0800
Subject: RE: [vpFREE] Re: Bob Dancer's LVA - 1 DEC 2015
Just another observation: So before 65 you could play tablegames with a minimum bet of a silver quarter. Today, most minimum bets at tablegames are $5 and the casino is probably losing money on the overhead if that's all you bet. But, tablegames have at least adjusted for inflation. Interestingly, the slots have not. Adjusted for inflation, presumably you wouldn't see many slots with a minimum bet less than $5, but instead, many slots are in penny and nickel denominations. I know TITO has reduced labor costs, but the machines and TITO cashout boxes and card tracking software are more expensive. I wonder where the crossover is, but surely if all you bet is one penny, the casino isn't even covering it's overhead.
[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
You can bet a penny but they do have the multilines and you normally need max bet for the jackpot.
[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
cdgnpc wrote: "You can bet a penny but they do have the multilines and you normally need max bet for the jackpot."
The minimum allowed slot return in Nevada is 75%. If you bet one penny per minute, that's 60 cents per hour, your average cost of playing is 15 cents per hour. By playing an hour, remember many casinos are now ranking players by time on a machine, you're probably entitled to drinks, sometimes even premium, probably can play the kiosk games, probably can play the free slot tournaments, probably can complain until they give you at least one drawing ticket, probably can get a discounted or even free room, probably qualify for the "free gifts", and so on. Chances are even good you'll get a mailer with some free play and some free food. Even $5 freeplay looks pretty good.
[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
Ken wrote: "A penny in 65 got you a full jackpot."
Penny slots only appeared in large numbers with TITO which was circa 1999 or something like that. It would be difficult to do hand fills on a penny machine in a cost effective manner. Even the few nickel machines pre-TITO were probably loss leaders.
[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]