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Bob Dancer's LV Advisor Column - 22 FEB 2011

#1

Bob Dancer's LV Advisor Column - 22 FEB 2011

"Where Is Your Focus?"

http://www.lasvegasadvisor.com/bob_dancer/2011/0222.cfm

<a href="http://www.lasvegasadvisor.com/bob_dancer/2011/0222.cfm">
http://www.lasvegasadvisor.com/bob_dancer/2011/0222.cfm</a>

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#2

<< I'm RFB at Harrah's Lake Tahoe and I need to play a certain amount to
keep these offers coming>>

What kind of play does one have to give them to get offers worthy of a trip
from Las Vegas? Looks like best game is multiline 9/6 JoB with standard
Harrah's no cashback. I already get free airfare offers to Reno/Tahoe based
on my Vegas play.

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

#3

I don't know why, but it seems the more important the information in an article on gambling, the more boring it seems to me. It wasn't as fun to read as some of Bob's other articles, the one on "A Sexy Correlation" had me falling off my chair laughing...but wow great info. Be sure to coffee up and read the whole thing.

It might interest you all to know that in the Teams we never thought about, or worried about winning. We had only one focus: Is a progressive up.

If Yes--We played
If No--We rested

Winning was simply the unavoidable consequence of always playing with extremely large edges. 2% was as low as we would go.

We worried about winning about as much as the average person worries that the sun will come up in the morning.

~FK

#4

Unless I missed it someplace, I think it would be of interest to many of us if you explained how a team worked. Who puts up the money? How are members paid? How do you keep tract? Who pays the taxes? How does one get on a team? etc etc.

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--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Frank" <frank@...> wrote:

It might interest you all to know that in the Teams we never thought about, or worried about winning. We had only one focus: Is a progressive up.

If Yes--We played
If No--We rested

#5

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "deuceswild1000" <deuceswild1000@...> wrote: Unless I missed it someplace, I think it would be of interest to many of us if you explained how a team worked. Who puts up the money? How are members paid? How do you keep tract? Who pays the taxes? How does one get on a team? etc etc.

The someplace you missed it was my book. To paraphrase:

1. Our team has a single investor "the owner"
2. During my stint as manger I was in charge of about 68 active employees.
3. We had 3 scouts. All they did was check meters.
4. We had 2 trainers to teach strategy to new recruits
5. We had the A team. Players carried $500 in walking around money and were first on the scene.
6. The B team usually relieved them.
7. Taxes were transfered to the owner, and not the responsibility of the players.
8. Massive record keeping. Some days that was all I did.

Players got an hourly wage plus bonus for Jackpots. I was the only percentage employee.

During my years with the team we had 5 major competing teams, all structured similarly. We were the largest that played video poker. The red team may have been larger, but played mostly slots.

It's all in the book and a lot more.

Cheers,

~FK

For more info: www.progressivevp.com

#6

Sure, because the money man was taking all the risk.

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Frank" <frank@...> wrote:

It might interest you all to know that in the Teams we never thought about, or worried about winning. We had only one focus: Is a progressive up.

#7

Unless I missed it someplace, I think it would be of interest to many of us if you explained how a team worked. Who puts up the money?

The money man.

How are members paid?

Members? You mean runners or the loyal minions? Usually minimum wage plus comps and free casino swag. Not clear if you can get people to work on those terms these days.

How do you keep tract?

The book maker does the books, the enforcer handles personnel problems.

Who pays the taxes?

The money man, of course. But the IRS (the mother of all teams) has different ideas.

How does one get on a team? etc etc.

Hmm, good question for you host? Why not start your own team, start with a mail order bride add family members (real or fictitious) and so on. These days you can do that on facebook, right?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gzAtuprN3tg

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--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "deuceswild1000" <deuceswild1000@...> wrote:

#8

Frank" <frank@> wrote:It might interest you all to know that in the Teams we never thought about, or worried about winning. We had only one focus: Is a progressive up.

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "nightoftheiguana2000" <nightoftheiguana2000@...> wrote:Sure, because the money man was taking all the risk.

Frank's Reply: No not quite. That was true for some of my career, but that wasn't what I meant. Even when I was "the money man" and operating a small 12 person team, I never worried about winning/losing. Just, is the progressive up?

I don't think you realize what a slam dunk playing high progressives was. When I ran my small team, our minimum edge was around 4%. Even if we ran bad, it usually just meant breaking even. 4% was our starting number. More commonly I waited for 6-8%.

Breaking even is annoying, but not terribly stressful.

Only once in my entire career did I worry about losses, and I immediately backed out of the play. It's in the book.

~FK

#9

I draw the inference that you only worried about losses when you were losing. Correct me if I'm wrong:

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Frank" <frank@...> wrote:

Even when I was "the money man" and operating a small 12 person team, I never worried about winning/losing. Just, is the progressive up?

Only once in my entire career did I worry about losses, and I immediately backed out of the play. It's in the book.

#10

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "nightoftheiguana2000" <nightoftheiguana2000@...> wrote:I draw the inference that you only worried about losses when you were losing. Correct me if I'm wrong:

Very insightful of you to ask. Beginning to know me are you?

No, I was ahead about $5,000 when I backed out of the BJ play. $1200 a hand was simply outside my comfort level. It had little to do with my results at the time. I try never to included results in any decision about gambling I make.

When I say, "loses" what I really mean is "potential loses". The worry should have been in advance of playing.

This may have been the exception, but if anything, what made me nervous was the quick win. It was my first exposure to BJ fluctuation. I know the math says in BJ the swings can go both ways with equal speed, and I didn't want to wait for the other shoe to drop. Besides I didn't need the money, and the EV/Stress trade was a poor one.

Oh & BTW: Backing out cost me roughly $8,800 in additional profit (my share of an 8-way split). But I slept easier giving it up.

I believe pro gambling should be a 0% stress job, or get a different job. I have failed in keeping it 0%, but it has still been FAR less stressful than anything else I've done.

My current stress level is approximately 7.34792%.

Don't ask how I calculate that? (its stressful)

~FK

#11

Who is "host"?

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "nightoftheiguana2000" <nightoftheiguana2000@...> wrote:

>How does one get on a team? etc etc.

Hmm, good question for you host? Why not start your own team, start with a mail order bride add family members (real or fictitious) and so on. These days you can do that on facebook, right?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gzAtuprN3tg

#12

I'm assuming most teams are operating outside LV and Reno as those edges are true and fully extinct?
Out of the way states (not asking you to be specific) where the casino's are less savvy?

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Frank" <frank@...> wrote:

I don't think you realize what a slam dunk playing high progressives was. When I ran my small team, our minimum edge was around 4%. Even if we ran bad, it usually just meant breaking even. 4% was our starting number. More commonly I waited for 6-8%.

Breaking even is annoying, but not terribly stressful.

Only once in my entire career did I worry about losses, and I immediately backed out of the play. It's in the book.

~FK

#13

You don't have to be on a team to play progressives. This is an educated guess on my part: I think if I were to scout out Reno/Sparks/Carson City/Tahoe I would find several progressives that have the right combination of payscale/meter strength to create positive situations.

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "mike" <melbedewy1226@...> wrote:

I'm assuming most teams are operating outside LV and Reno as those >edges are true and fully extinct?
Out of the way states (not asking you to be specific) where the >casino's are less savvy?

#14

Can anybody clarify/pinpoint the location of the $5 NSUD at Harrah's Cherokee?

Are there any other decent play not in our database?

Thank you

Mike

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

#15

I'm assuming most teams are operating outside LV and Reno as those edges are true and fully extinct?

Out of the way states (not asking you to be specific) where the casino's are less savvy?

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "mike" <melbedewy1226@...> wrote:

_________________________
FK reply: I can't speak for "teams" operating outside Las Vegas today. I have incomplete knowledge of the current environment outside my backyard.

The BIG teams became extinct due to IRS pressure more than a decade ago.

The edges are not dead, though the scouting requirement keeps going up, and the play volume keeps going down. Kinda sort of? The number of playable progressives I scout tripled last month.

Yes, out of the way seems to be a good place to look.

I was on a good one as recently as this morning.

Dead...not hardly. Dying, perhaps???

My crystal ball is in the closet, cloudy, dust covered. Oh, and it never worked to begin with. No one can tell the future, least of all me.

Let me close with this. I know many on vpFREE think us book authors are dangling red Herrings to get people to buy our books. I'm glad people pointed this out, because otherwise I would not have known that was what I was doing. Seriously, people buying my book to do what I did was never on my radar. I'm reasonably sure those statements are coming from people that haven't read it.

In the introduction I emphatically state that its not just a how-to book, its a would-I-want-to book.

Which is why I filled it with all the school of hard knocks lessons my pro gambling career has taught me. Good info for anyone, VP player or non-gambler alike.

You can no more read my book and do exactly what I did, than you could read Bringing Down the House and start-up a MIT Blackjack team.

Are there still good progressives out there? Yes. Is that a reason to buy my book? No. I recommend it for the Pepper Chicken Recipe.

Cheers all,

~FK www.progressivevp.com

#16

I was going to buy your book on Amazon but it's kind of pricey at $179.
Maybe I'll wait for the movie.

Cogno

···

-----Original Message-----
From: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com [mailto:vpF…@…com] On Behalf Of
Frank
Sent: Saturday, February 26, 2011 12:02 PM
To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
Subject: [vpFREE] Re: Bob Dancer's LV Advisor Column - 22 FEB 2011

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "mike" <melbedewy1226@...> wrote:
I'm assuming most teams are operating outside LV and Reno as those edges are
true and fully extinct?

Out of the way states (not asking you to be specific) where the casino's are
less savvy?

_________________________
FK reply: I can't speak for "teams" operating outside Las Vegas today. I
have incomplete knowledge of the current environment outside my backyard.

The BIG teams became extinct due to IRS pressure more than a decade ago.

The edges are not dead, though the scouting requirement keeps going up, and
the play volume keeps going down. Kinda sort of? The number of playable
progressives I scout tripled last month.

Yes, out of the way seems to be a good place to look.

I was on a good one as recently as this morning.

Dead...not hardly. Dying, perhaps???

My crystal ball is in the closet, cloudy, dust covered. Oh, and it never
worked to begin with. No one can tell the future, least of all me.

Let me close with this. I know many on vpFREE think us book authors are
dangling red Herrings to get people to buy our books. I'm glad people
pointed this out, because otherwise I would not have known that was what I
was doing. Seriously, people buying my book to do what I did was never on my
radar. I'm reasonably sure those statements are coming from people that
haven't read it.

In the introduction I emphatically state that its not just a how-to book,
its a would-I-want-to book.

Which is why I filled it with all the school of hard knocks lessons my pro
gambling career has taught me. Good info for anyone, VP player or
non-gambler alike.

You can no more read my book and do exactly what I did, than you could read
Bringing Down the House and start-up a MIT Blackjack team.

Are there still good progressives out there? Yes. Is that a reason to buy my
book? No. I recommend it for the Pepper Chicken Recipe.

Cheers all,

~FK www.progressivevp.com

------------------------------------

vpFREE Links: http://members.cox.net/vpfree/Links.htm

Yahoo! Groups Links

#17

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, Cogno Scienti <cognoscienti@...> wrote:I was going to buy your book on Amazon but it's kind of pricey at $179.

Huh??? My book is only available from three sources:

1. My website www.progressivevp.com
2. Huntington Press
3. Gamblers Book Store

If you are seeing it on Amazon something is horribly wrong. Can you email me and give me more info on this. frank@progressivevp.com

~FK

#18

<<Huh??? My book is only available from three sources:

1. My website www.progressivevp.com
2. Huntington Press
3. Gamblers Book Store

If you are seeing it on Amazon something is horribly wrong. Can you email me
and give me more info on this. frank@progressivevp.com>>

You want info on how to look up a book on www.amazon.com? Just type in the
title or ISBN.

Cogno

#19

Thank you for your response. I do love your show and I doubt I will ever miss an episode.
I am certainly not asking that you reveal any "error" locations.
As someone who has been playing VP profitably for 25 years and is very much up to date on "The Grapevine" in both LV and Reno, I think I can comfortably say that the kind of edges on progressives that you look for (over 3%) simply no longer exist in any major casino in Reno or LV.
By "major" I will include
1. The Strip
2. Downtown
3. The "major" off strip places like Sam's Town, M, Cannery, Stations, SP, Silverton, Palms, etc.
4. Reno-Atlantis/Peppermill, Downtown, Ascagua's, Grand Sierra, South Lake Tahoe.

Therefore, my conclusion is that any such machines must be at:
1. Way out of the way locations like Mesquite, Winnemucca, Wendover, Jackpot, etc.
2. Bars
3. 7/11's and the like.
4. Out of state.

As for myself, I play the FPDW progressive at the Palms and a bunch of scattered 10/7 progressives. But the meters are anemically low and I don't think such machines will ever hit 103%-at least at any casino I define as "major" above.
Look forward to next weeks show. One question I would love to have asked is "How many times do you physically go into VP machines in Las Vegas every year and make sure they're not gaffed".
Yes, I am paranoid and yes I remember the LATE Larry Volk.
My daddy always taught me "where there is money there is cheating".

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Frank" <frank@...> wrote:

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "mike" <melbedewy1226@> wrote:
I'm assuming most teams are operating outside LV and Reno as those edges are true and fully extinct?

Out of the way states (not asking you to be specific) where the casino's are less savvy?

_________________________
FK reply: I can't speak for "teams" operating outside Las Vegas today. I have incomplete knowledge of the current environment outside my backyard.

The BIG teams became extinct due to IRS pressure more than a decade ago.

The edges are not dead, though the scouting requirement keeps going up, and the play volume keeps going down. Kinda sort of? The number of playable progressives I scout tripled last month.

Yes, out of the way seems to be a good place to look.

I was on a good one as recently as this morning.

Dead...not hardly. Dying, perhaps???

My crystal ball is in the closet, cloudy, dust covered. Oh, and it never worked to begin with. No one can tell the future, least of all me.

Let me close with this. I know many on vpFREE think us book authors are dangling red Herrings to get people to buy our books. I'm glad people pointed this out, because otherwise I would not have known that was what I was doing. Seriously, people buying my book to do what I did was never on my radar. I'm reasonably sure those statements are coming from people that haven't read it.

In the introduction I emphatically state that its not just a how-to book, its a would-I-want-to book.

Which is why I filled it with all the school of hard knocks lessons my pro gambling career has taught me. Good info for anyone, VP player or non-gambler alike.

You can no more read my book and do exactly what I did, than you could read Bringing Down the House and start-up a MIT Blackjack team.

Are there still good progressives out there? Yes. Is that a reason to buy my book? No. I recommend it for the Pepper Chicken Recipe.

Cheers all,

~FK www.progressivevp.com

#20

Right you are Mickey. Don't have to be in a team, though I recommend at least one partner.

If you drop by Tahoe could you say hi to Mark Bartholomew at Harvey's. And tell him new contact info.

~FK

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Mickey" <mickeycrimm@...> wrote: You don't have to be on a team to play progressives. This is an educated guess on my part: I think if I were to scout out Reno/Sparks/Carson City/Tahoe I would find several progressives that have the right combination of payscale/meter strength to create positive situations.