There's a whole bunch of stuff you have to induce about drawings, like: are you on the excluded list?, will they only call a name once and then exclude any additional draws of the same name, will they only call those who have some play today, will they only call those who have a card in a machine, will they only call those who haven't played yet today, will they only call those who have lost a lot today, will they only call those who tip, is the drawing completely fixed, have people been duplicating or making their own tickets, are there other secret ways to get tickets, if you tip big at a table game will they give you a bunch of tickets, will they only pull folded tickets or non-folded tickets, is the drum stuffed so much that the tickets aren't getting shuffled, did they dump out any tickets that got put in early and what is the definition of "early", did they do some "culling" of the drum before the drawing, and so on. Good luck with that one. A rough rule of thumb: as the value of the prize increases, the chances of a completely random drawing decrease. A big prize represents a huge incentive to cheat. Google "Venetian rigged drawing" for some interesting stories about drawings.
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--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "vpplayer88" wrote:
I think there are plenty of examples of inductive logic being very useful for gambling. There are many things you can't know a priori. For example, the number of entries in a drawing is very important for estimating your equity. There is no way to do this except with inductive logic. Another example is estimating your edge in tournaments of skill like poker, blackjack or craps. You can't estimate these without inductive logic because the true strategies of your opponents are unknown given that you only observe a small subset of their potential actions.
Anyway, the point is that you should understand which kind of logic is appropriate for each situation. Video poker is a full information game so you should use deductive logic if you played perfectly, but you need to use inductive logic to estimate your error frequency and adjust your ev accordingly.
If you play must hit by slots, the true return is not known and play data is relevant for figuring out the quality of a play. The key here is understanding something about how much events should move your prior about machine returns.
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, vpFREE Administrator wrote:
>
> Bob Dancer's LV Advisor Column - 12 FEB 2013
>
> "Induction versus Deduction"
>
> http://www.lasvegasadvisor.com/bob_dancer/2013/0212.cfm
>
>
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