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Bob Dancer's LV Advisor Column - 11 SEP 2012

#1

Bob Dancer's LV Advisor Column - 11 SEP 2012

"Getting Used to an Idea"

http://www.lasvegasadvisor.com/bob_dancer/2012/0911.cfm

<a href="http://www.lasvegasadvisor.com/bob_dancer/2012/0911.cfm">
http://www.lasvegasadvisor.com/bob_dancer/2012/0911.cfm</a>

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#2

Bob-

Did you consider:
1. The religious woman doesn't put a price tag on a "regular weekly mass". I give her credit for sticking strong to what she believes in, you seem to want to "beat her up".

2 The $500 "same as cash" value to you may have had "next to zero" value to your friends, depending on their travel habits.

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--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, vpFREE Administrator <vpfree3355@...> wrote:

Bob Dancer's LV Advisor Column - 11 SEP 2012

"Getting Used to an Idea"

http://www.lasvegasadvisor.com/bob_dancer/2012/0911.cfm

<a href="http://www.lasvegasadvisor.com/bob_dancer/2012/0911.cfm">
http://www.lasvegasadvisor.com/bob_dancer/2012/0911.cfm</a>

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This link is posted for informational purposes
and doesn't constitute an endorsement or approval
of the linked article's content by vpFREE. Any
discussion of the article must be done in
accordance with vpFREE's rules and policies.
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#3

Being bumped on an airline other than Southwest means a very real chance of getting stuck on a middle seat on the next available flight.
The $500 is pretty sweet but I basically won't even book a flight unless I have an aisle. Sometimes agreeing to be bumped can result in a seat upgrade but more often than not the seat you end up with is what's ever available. You could always wait for later flights where you have a choice of seats but hanging around the airport is very boring. When passengers get involuntarily bumped many of them go crazy. The compensation doesn't begin to settle them down. If you check in early there is almost a zero chance you lose your seat.

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--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, vpFREE Administrator <vpfree3355@...> wrote:

Bob Dancer's LV Advisor Column - 11 SEP 2012

"Getting Used to an Idea"

http://www.lasvegasadvisor.com/bob_dancer/2012/0911.cfm

<a href="http://www.lasvegasadvisor.com/bob_dancer/2012/0911.cfm">
http://www.lasvegasadvisor.com/bob_dancer/2012/0911.cfm</a>

*************************************************
This link is posted for informational purposes
and doesn't constitute an endorsement or approval
of the linked article's content by vpFREE. Any
discussion of the article must be done in
accordance with vpFREE's rules and policies.
*************************************************

#4

That's the whole point of the article. Of course the lady puts a price on mass, if she was paid five trillion dollars, then she would skip it. The point is that not everyone explicitly recognizes these calculations in every day life. Its just like how people say they don't like taking on any risk but risk their lives driving every day. Risk is inherent in everything we do, just like EV is inherent in everything we do.

The article wasn't about beating anyone up, it was about correcting your mindset. Bob's approach is the correct way to approach these issues as a rational actor.

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--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "maclarenv12" <ahduff@...> wrote:

Bob-

Did you consider:
1. The religious woman doesn't put a price tag on a "regular weekly mass". I give her credit for sticking strong to what she believes in, you seem to want to "beat her up".

2 The $500 "same as cash" value to you may have had "next to zero" value to your friends, depending on their travel habits.

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, vpFREE Administrator <vpfree3355@> wrote:
>
> Bob Dancer's LV Advisor Column - 11 SEP 2012
>
> "Getting Used to an Idea"
>
> http://www.lasvegasadvisor.com/bob_dancer/2012/0911.cfm
>
> <a href="http://www.lasvegasadvisor.com/bob_dancer/2012/0911.cfm">
> http://www.lasvegasadvisor.com/bob_dancer/2012/0911.cfm</a>
>
>
> *************************************************
> This link is posted for informational purposes
> and doesn't constitute an endorsement or approval
> of the linked article's content by vpFREE. Any
> discussion of the article must be done in
> accordance with vpFREE's rules and policies.
> *************************************************
>

#5

maclarenv12 wrote: Did you consider:

1. The religious woman doesn't put a price tag on a "regular weekly mass". I give her credit for sticking strong to what she believes in, you seem to want to "beat her up".

2 The $500 "same as cash" value to you may have had "next to zero" value to your friends, depending on their travel habits.

I believe your first point was well-addressed by vpplayer88. That said, those of us who monetize or numericize the religious activities of others know we are opening ourselves up to attack. People sometimes go to war over perceived religious slights. I hope this doesn't come to that.

As to your second point, I tried to communicate that the $500 travel voucher was fully transferable --- which includes being usable by anybody. (Not all Southwest vouchers are fully transferable --- but these are). That means you can sell them or give them away if you don't find them personally usable. On occasion I've purchased these vouchers from others at an 80% rate (which is another way to gain a small edge.) This would make the $500 vouchers worth $400 --- which is still significantly higher than "next to zero." Had any of my friends been bumped I would have explained this to them. I doubt any would have wanted to sell Shirley and me their vouchers but at 80% we were willing buyers if they were willing sellers. My four friends (plus Shirley) saw this article WAY before it was posted. Three of them agreed with my major point that their biggest problem with signing up for bumping was that I sprung it on them at the last minute. These three people believe they would have agreed to try to be bumped had we discussed it a couple of days earlier. None of them felt I was beating them up. The one "holdout" has her "never-again" philosophy and nothing I said in the article
came close to changing her mind. I suspect that if the other five of us signed up for bumping she would too (albeit kicking and screaming) because her "from McCarran to home" transportation was going to be in the same car as three of the others --- and she was NOT the driver. Someone posted that bumpees usually board last and get center seats. Yes, this often happens if the later flight is close to being full. I'm fairly large (220# --- 6'1" --- prefer to read a book) and aisle seats are more comfortable. But this is not a showstopper for me although I knows others for whom it is. I am willing to put up with slightly less comfort for $500. Shirley is much smaller (110# --- 5'8" --- likes to talk to most anybody) and middle seats aren't such an annoyance to her. This definitely needs to be part of your decision in deciding whether to try to be bumped.Bob

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

#6

Working for the airlines--I see this all the time. I often
find it amazing that if there are difficulties with the flight
and I need to re-book passengers that some people are very
poorly equipped to handle a situation like this mentally
and emotionally. I've had people explode in tears when I've
had to tell them their flight is canceled. I've had people
explode in anger also. As Bob said: the psychological window for
changing plans had already closed. And for some people
it was never open. . . . . . I often wonder how these people
make it thru life. . . . . do things always go exactly as
planned for them? Someone once told me that in a difficult
situation your main thot should only be--how can we fix this
or how can we get back on track? Thinking about anything other
than this is a true energy zapper. . . . . . and no help in the situation.

Also--if you are going to "volunteer" to take a bump--by
all means--get your name of the list as soon as possible. Sometimes
it MAY pay to wait and volunteer at the gate when the agent
is "desperate" (ie--higher $) but then you risk others getting ahead of you.
AND you can try to avoid the middle seat by asking the agent
to check you in and give you a boarding pass when they re-book
you. You'd be surprised how many people don't check in ahead and
how many seats are still available 3-4 hours ahead. Again- if you're
on a 2-3 hour flight--a middle isn't THAT bad. . . . just think about
that voucher in your pocket!

Finally--due to DOT (Dept of Transportation) Regs that just recently
went into affect--the airlines are not overbooking flights like they
used to. In fact, many are booking even--risking going with empty
seats rather than having to "pay" to deny someone boarding. So-if
you're a "bumper" you may not find as many opportunities available in
the future compared to your past experience. Just sayin. . . .

PS--Lastly--if you HAVE to be somewhere and you're flying--GO THE DAY PRIOR!!!
You never know what might happen or how weather etc in other parts of the
country can affect you and the plane you're scheduled to fly on. . . . .

Jean H--
The random number generator does not respond
to violence. -Melissa Fine, Strictly Slots

Life is ten percent what you make it
and ninety percent how you take it!

“I believe in luck: how else can you explain
the success of those you dislike?” —Jean Cocteau

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________________________________
From: vpFREE Administrator <vpfree3355@gmail.com>
To: (vpFREE) <vpFREE@Yahoogroups.com>
Sent: Tuesday, September 11, 2012 1:41 PM
Subject: [vpFREE] Bob Dancer's LV Advisor Column - 11 SEP 2012

Bob Dancer's LV Advisor Column - 11 SEP 2012

"Getting Used to an Idea"

http://www.lasvegasadvisor.com/bob_dancer/2012/0911.cfm

<a href="http://www.lasvegasadvisor.com/bob_dancer/2012/0911.cfm">
http://www.lasvegasadvisor.com/bob_dancer/2012/0911.cfm</a>

.

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

#7

I know SW boards by groups based on check-in time. Cannot see how that avoids the middle seat issue when getting bumped. Do they put passengers that were bumped into the A boarding group?

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--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "VpKing77" <vpking77@...> wrote:

Being bumped on an airline other than Southwest means a very real chance of getting stuck on a middle seat on the next available flight.
The $500 is pretty sweet but I basically won't even book a flight unless I have an aisle. >

#8

Great info, Jean H.

<<Finally--due to DOT (Dept of Transportation) Regs that just recently
went into affect--the airlines are not overbooking flights like they
used to. In fact, many are booking even--risking going with empty
seats rather than having to "pay" to deny someone boarding.>>

I would like to know more information about these new regulations. Do the airlines have to pay more for bumping?

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------------------------------------------
Jean $¢ott, Frugal Gambler
http://queenofcomps.com/
You can read my blog at
http://jscott.lvablog.com/

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

#9

It's very useful to be able to rationally evaluate the value of various alternatives (e.g., a $500 flight credit vs less time waiting at the airport). It's also useful to remember that maximizing profit is a proxy for maximizing happiness, but it's not the same thing.

Money is extremely easy to measure, while evaluating levels of happiness is far less so. Those of us fond of numbers have to be careful of assigning excessive value to money MERELY because it's easy to measure. You might think that $2000 brings twice as much happiness vs $1000, but this is rarely the case. We may have the gut feeling that winning a fortune would always bring happiness, but the evidence (based on what I've seen and read about lottery winners and other cases of instant wealth), I have serious doubts about it.

It's absolutely true that I'd skip a religious service for a million dollars, and I would do so for $1. So it's a reasonable calculus to try to determine the actual "break-even" cash value... there must be a specific figure at which I'd be indifferent to whether I got the money or the service.

Since our ultimate goal is happiness, not money, it might also make sense to look at it a little differently. How much happiness (to myself OR to others) is gained by my going to the religious service, vs the happiness-value of the flight credit. Since happiness is so difficult to measure, this is more complicated than basing the calculation on cash... but the results have more real-life meaning.

Often $500 in casino comps are worth more to me than $500 cash. That's because if I go to a casino with friends or family, they'd often refuse to let me treat them... but they would accept a free room or meal that I supplied with comps, and that transaction brings much happiness all around.

Finally: there's a great benefit in life from the ability to make a plan and stick with it. There's also benefit in the ability to be flexible, to change plans based on new information. If we do some introspection, and determine which of these skills we're most in need of strengthening, that's another important metric to consider.

Stuart Resnick (RandomStu)
http://stuart-randomthoughts.blogspot.com/

#10

"RandomStu" <sresnick2@...> wrote:

It's absolutely true that I'd skip a religious service
for a million dollars, and I would do so for $1.

Oops. I meant to write I WOULDN'T do so for $1.

Stuart Resnick (RandomStu)
http://stuart-randomthoughts.blogspot.com/

#11

Bob, you and Shirley are welcome to Montana. We would love to see you both here. You will have to ignore my ignorant Montana friends on the subject of gambling, but they are great people. Please come and visit us,Bob. Tell Shirley that we cant smoke inside, so she won't have to inhale smoke. Come and visit us, Bob. I'll meet you anywhere in Montana.

#12

Cool, Mick. Didn't Dan Seals/Marie Osmond have a song about that?

Bob

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Sent from my iPhone

On Sep 14, 2012, at 2:15 AM, "Mickey" <mickeycrimm@yahoo.com> wrote:

Bob, you and Shirley are welcome to Montana. We would love to see you both here. You will have to ignore my ignorant Montana friends on the subject of gambling, but they are great people. Please come and visit us,Bob. Tell Shirley that we cant smoke inside, so she won't have to inhale smoke. Come and visit us, Bob. I'll meet you anywhere in Montana.

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

#13

Yeah, it's called "Meet Me In Montana." The funny thing is most Montanan's hate the song. I play it sometimes in the bars on the internet jukeboxes just to watch the Montanans puke. Montanans are Californiaphobes. They have a healthy fear that Californians are gonna buy Montana and turn it into Los Angeles, Jr. They are already starting to call Bozeman....Bozeangeles. When I tell them that Marie Osmond is actually from Utah, they relax a little bit. It's another mountain state, you know. Being from Nevada you be all cool here. It's another mountain state too.

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--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, Bob Dancer <bobdancervp@...> wrote:

Cool, Mick. Didn't Dan Seals/Marie Osmond have a song about that?

Bob