Bob Dancer's LV Advisor Column - 10 JAN 2012

[Rob_Singer]

Mickey:

I made just a few bets on sports this year--all NFL. I'm no guru on the subject, but I've done quite well spending some time studying the teams & using my head along with gut feel. I'm just a straight bettor who doesn't shop lines, do middles or any of the things professional handicappers do. The problem is, I don't really know what my win % is based on: dollars won or bets won....and how does that big they get figure in?

I bet only 2 weekends this year--one in Dec. and one in Jan. Last weekend I made six $100 bets on games and overs/unders, and I won 3 of them. But in Dec. I felt very strong about four games and put $6k on a four team parlay--and won.

Is that considered 4 for 4 or just a single win?

···

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----- Reply message -----
From: "Mickey" <mickeycrimm@yahoo.com>
To: <vpFREE@yahoogroups.com>
Subject: [vpFREE] Re: Bob Dancer&apos;s LV Advisor Column - 10 JAN 2012
Date: Wed, Jan 11, 2012 8:43 pm

Bob Dancer wrote:

Winning at a 54% rate means that you have an 8% edge, or in the way the number is expressed in video poker circles, you're playing a 108% game.

================

jeffcole2003oct wrote:

To break even in sports betting, you have to win 11 bets for every 10 bets you lose, so a win percentage of 52.4% (11/21) means you break even. Wouldn't winning at a 54% rate give you a 2(54% - 52.4%) = 3.2% edge instead of an 8% edge?

Bob is referring to the fact that if you are winning 54% of your bets your opponent is only winning 46% rate against you. That's an 8% difference. Of course, the juice is not calculated in.

document.write(""); var YWATracker = YWA.getTracker("10001615631662");YWATracker.submit(); TODAY(Beta) &bull;

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[Mickey]

Hi, Rob. If you went 3 for 6 on the $100 bets then you broke even on your picks but would have lost a little money to the juice.

Parleys are different from straight bets. Percentagewise they're considered much tougher bets. I don't know what a 4 for 4 pays but the odds of hitting it are based on it being a coin flip as to whether each of your picks cover. So it would be .5 X .5 X .5 X .5. That's a win percentage of 6.25%. So the chances of hitting a four teamer are 1 in 16.

If the payoff is:

15, the expectation is 93.75%
14, the expectation is 87.50%
13, the expectation is 81.25%
12, the expectation is 75.00%

When I was in Nevada I stayed away from straight handicapping because I knew I didn't know anything about it. But I did learn a few tricks like middling and scalping.

And I knew about lines moving toward the favorite caused by recreational bettors pounding the favorite just before gametime. In those spots I took the dog and the extra points.

As far as tracking your win/loss, probably the best thing to do is start a spreadsheet. And I would have a different spreadsheet for each bet type and size or else the stats will be skewed. You can probably buy stuff like that at Gambler's Book Store.

Take care

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "rob.singer1111@yahoo.com" <rob.singer1111@...> wrote:

Mickey:

I made just a few bets on sports this year--all NFL. I'm no guru on the subject, but I've done quite well spending some time studying the teams & using my head along with gut feel. I'm just a straight bettor who doesn't shop lines, do middles or any of the things professional handicappers do. The problem is, I don't really know what my win % is based on: dollars won or bets won....and how does that big they get figure in?

I bet only 2 weekends this year--one in Dec. and one in Jan. Last weekend I made six $100 bets on games and overs/unders, and I won 3 of them. But in Dec. I felt very strong about four games and put $6k on a four team parlay--and won.

Is that considered 4 for 4 or just a single win?

[sheiky2_sheiky2]

4 team parlays around the valley range from 10-to 1 to 12-1. Don't be fooled when you see 12 for 1, usually on parlay cards.---12 for 1 is actually 11 to 1. Same at the crap table---8 for 1( hard 4) is actually 7 to 1.

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Mickey" <mickeycrimm@...> wrote:

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "rob.singer1111@..." <rob.singer1111@> wrote:
>
> Mickey:
>
> I made just a few bets on sports this year--all NFL. I'm no guru on the subject, but I've done quite well spending some time studying the teams & using my head along with gut feel. I'm just a straight bettor who doesn't shop lines, do middles or any of the things professional handicappers do. The problem is, I don't really know what my win % is based on: dollars won or bets won....and how does that big they get figure in?
>
> I bet only 2 weekends this year--one in Dec. and one in Jan. Last weekend I made six $100 bets on games and overs/unders, and I won 3 of them. But in Dec. I felt very strong about four games and put $6k on a four team parlay--and won.
>
> Is that considered 4 for 4 or just a single win?
>
Hi, Rob. If you went 3 for 6 on the $100 bets then you broke even on your picks but would have lost a little money to the juice.

Parleys are different from straight bets. Percentagewise they're considered much tougher bets. I don't know what a 4 for 4 pays but the odds of hitting it are based on it being a coin flip as to whether each of your picks cover. So it would be .5 X .5 X .5 X .5. That's a win percentage of 6.25%. So the chances of hitting a four teamer are 1 in 16.

If the payoff is:

15, the expectation is 93.75%
14, the expectation is 87.50%
13, the expectation is 81.25%
12, the expectation is 75.00%

When I was in Nevada I stayed away from straight handicapping because I knew I didn't know anything about it. But I did learn a few tricks like middling and scalping.

And I knew about lines moving toward the favorite caused by recreational bettors pounding the favorite just before gametime. In those spots I took the dog and the extra points.

As far as tracking your win/loss, probably the best thing to do is start a spreadsheet. And I would have a different spreadsheet for each bet type and size or else the stats will be skewed. You can probably buy stuff like that at Gambler's Book Store.

Take care

[Videopoker]

Is it me, or does it seem strange to see Mickey and Rob having a civil conversation. If memory serves me, it was otherwise.

···

From: Mickey
Sent: Friday, January 13, 2012 2:48 PM
To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
Subject: [vpFREE] Re: Bob Dancer's LV Advisor Column - 10 JAN 2012

--- In mailto:vpFREE%40yahoogroups.com, "mailto:rob.singer1111%40yahoo.com" <rob.singer1111@...> wrote:

Mickey:

I made just a few bets on sports this year--all NFL. I'm no guru on the subject, but I've done quite well spending some time studying the teams & using my head along with gut feel. I'm just a straight bettor who doesn't shop lines, do middles or any of the things professional handicappers do. The problem is, I don't really know what my win % is based on: dollars won or bets won....and how does that big they get figure in?

I bet only 2 weekends this year--one in Dec. and one in Jan. Last weekend I made six $100 bets on games and overs/unders, and I won 3 of them. But in Dec. I felt very strong about four games and put $6k on a four team parlay--and won.

Is that considered 4 for 4 or just a single win?

Hi, Rob. If you went 3 for 6 on the $100 bets then you broke even on your picks but would have lost a little money to the juice.

Parleys are different from straight bets. Percentagewise they're considered much tougher bets. I don't know what a 4 for 4 pays but the odds of hitting it are based on it being a coin flip as to whether each of your picks cover. So it would be .5 X .5 X .5 X .5. That's a win percentage of 6.25%. So the chances of hitting a four teamer are 1 in 16.

If the payoff is:

15, the expectation is 93.75%
14, the expectation is 87.50%
13, the expectation is 81.25%
12, the expectation is 75.00%

When I was in Nevada I stayed away from straight handicapping because I knew I didn't know anything about it. But I did learn a few tricks like middling and scalping.

And I knew about lines moving toward the favorite caused by recreational bettors pounding the favorite just before gametime. In those spots I took the dog and the extra points.

As far as tracking your win/loss, probably the best thing to do is start a spreadsheet. And I would have a different spreadsheet for each bet type and size or else the stats will be skewed. You can probably buy stuff like that at Gambler's Book Store.

Take care

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[Mickey]

I'm sorry I ever got involved in those confrontations with Rob. The truth is Rob was actually civil to me before that--I started the whole thing with a drunken post one night, for which I apologize to Rob. I have my way of doing things and he has his but there is nothing wrong with that. He's probably a pretty good guy. And I've just never been able to hold grudges.

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Videopoker" <videopoker@...> wrote:

Is it me, or does it seem strange to see Mickey and Rob having a civil conversation. If memory serves me, it was otherwise.

[Videopoker]

Glad to hear this. I agree you both have something to contribute.

···

From: Mickey
Sent: Sunday, January 15, 2012 4:12 PM
To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
Subject: [vpFREE] Re: Bob Dancer's LV Advisor Column - 10 JAN 2012

--- In mailto:vpFREE%40yahoogroups.com, "Videopoker" <videopoker@...> wrote:

Is it me, or does it seem strange to see Mickey and Rob having a civil conversation. If memory serves me, it was otherwise.

I'm sorry I ever got involved in those confrontations with Rob. The truth is Rob was actually civil to me before that--I started the whole thing with a drunken post one night, for which I apologize to Rob. I have my way of doing things and he has his but there is nothing wrong with that. He's probably a pretty good guy. And I've just never been able to hold grudges.

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]